The government have published what they laughingly call “an action plan”.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/869827/Coronavirus_action_plan_-_a_guide_to_what_you_can_expect_across_the_UK.pdf

Let’s explain what this means. It is like a builder saying “I’ll build you an extension”. But what they don’t say, is how, for how much, how long, what the plan is, etc. Basically it’s like handing over a blank cheque – or in this case – your life to someone who hasn’t given the project any serious thought.

It is not a plan – it is a press release with a lot of words and very little in the way of specific action and nothing in terms of detail. And remember they’ve know Wuhan virus was coming our way for well over a month and this is no better than a vague over-view of what might be done in case there is a pandemic. In other words, they’ve been sitting with their thumbs up their arses for the last 5 weeks and couldn’t care less about this crisis.

If Boris were fort commander and the Indians were about to attack, I’d say “run for your life”, because the commander doesn’t even have any clear idea of how many idians, nor how many guns, nor even how many soldiers, let alone a fall back plan for when the fort walls are overwhelmed.

As someone who regularly uses face maks whilst doing DIY work, I know that face masks work and to suggest otherwise is total bullshit conspiracy theory.

However, they only work if used properly and their effectiveness decreases the smaller the particles that are trying to be screened – otherwise they wouldn’t let air in!!

In order to protect against Coronavirus, we need to protect against water droplets sprayed out when fast moving air is expelled during a cough. These not only start at a range of different sizes, but because they rapidly evaporate in air, they get smaller and smaller, until only the solid parts (including virus) are left.

Masks will be effective at stopping larger droplets, but as the atomised droplets get smaller, their effectiveness decreases. And even with the best quality mask, it is more than likely that some masks will let through the smallest virus particles some of the time. But even if you put a pair of ladies nickers on your face, that will have some benefit.

Masks do work – but they are not 100% effective

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There have been some extremely vile people suggesting that Trum said: “Coronavirus is a hoax”.

Those people – of whom a large number are journalists – are clearly using this tragic event for purely political reasons and the allegation is completely false and I’m sure they know it.

What he actually said, is that the democrats attack on him for his handling of the Coronavirus issue, was like their hoax “Russian” attacks on him and the impeachment and now their ATTACKS on him was THEIR new hoax.

I’m not saying Trump’s handling of coronavirus is good – indeed I’ve not been following what he has or hasn’t done. But to accuse Trump of saying “coronavirus is a hoax” is a blatant lie. A lie using death and misery for attempted political gain.

Here’s the video which shows what he actually said:

Today I read in the Scotsman official comments (from Sturgeon). Now to say I cannot stand Sturgeon is an understatement, however this crisis is too important to let that interfere. I’ll go through the points

• 50-80% could be infected. That is not unreasonable as a maximum.
• Scotland may not follow a similar pattern – true, but it could be better, but it could be worse
• Vast majority (80%) mild symptoms. Agreed
• 20% more severe symptoms with 4% needing hospitalisation. I recognise the figures, but not the categorisation. However that may be my misunderstanding of what was meant by “20% required hospitalisation” in the Chinese data. Perhaps that was “quarantine” not treatment?
• “escalation plans” for the NHS are now being examined to see how extra capacity can be provided to cope with those who have the most severe symptoms. – EXCELLENT NEWS!!! I could say “a bit late”, but don’t look a gift horse in the mouth.
• “Contact tracing is under way” … agree with that approach, but I was fearful this was thought to be able to stop the virus. It appears it is now accepted it can only delay.
• Scotland v France Six Nations game is still scheduled to take place in Edinburgh & COP – personally I’d cancel both (the first to prevent Coronavirus – the second as a waste of time).
• Cobra “signed off of a four-nation action plan” … good to see apparent co-operation.

Comment

Whilst there are finally plans to increase the capacity of the NHS to match the possble need from acute beds for coronavirus, what we still haven’t seen is any details. Nor have we got details of the plans necessary to implement quarantine measures. And, remember it is far easier to organise details like this BEFORE quarantine, than to try to address the multitude of potential issues AFTER quarantine has to be imposed.

Trial quarantine

I would like to see an area of the UK being put under “trial quarantine” for a short period of perhaps a few days – pick a small town and just shut it down for 2-3 days. This would allow planners to start to think about some of the issues that need to be addressed, and it would give film footage that would allow the public to have a concept of what it entails.

Indeed, it may not be necessary to have an actual quarantine. But instead if a town were all (including children) asked “what issues do you foresee with a 100% quarantine for the next 14 days”, then this might by sufficient. But an actual quarantine, even of the family-residence in a military base would be hugely valuable and avoid some costly mistakes when it is needed for real.

Coronavirus: Scotland to expect ‘significant’ outbreak with up to 80 per cent of population infected

“We’re expecting perhaps 50 per cent or as much as 80 per cent of the population would be infected during that epidemic,” she told journalists at the Scottish Government’s St Andrews House headquarters in Edinburgh.

This is based on the epidemiological pattern of the outbreak in China, but it’s not clear whether Scotland would follow a similar pattern.

Dr Calderwood added that the vast majority of cases will be very “mild symptoms”, similar to a cold, and they will fully recover in a week to 10 days. However, 20% of people affected will suffer more severe symptoms, while 4% are looking at hospital treatment.

Ms Sturgeon insisted that the figures cover the worse case scenario and it was important to provide “full and frank” information.

“The public want to know that we are preparing for what we think is the reasonable worse case scenario,” she said.

“Much of what we do will be aimed at reducing that impact.”

The First Minister said “escalation plans” for the NHS are now being examined to see how extra capacity can be provided to cope with those who have the most severe symptoms.

The patient who was diagnosed with the Covid-19 virus in Tayside is “not seriously ill at this stage”, Ms Sturgeon revealed.

The Tayside resident, who had recently travelled from the north of Italy, has been taken to hospital as a precautionary measure and is currently receiving treatment in isolation.

“That is not necessarily going to be the case going forward for future cases”, Ms Sturgeon said, explaining people will be told to self-isolate “unless there is a clinical need for them to be in hospital”.

“Contact tracing is under way”, she added.

Her briefing came after the First Minister took part in the UK Government’s Cobra meeting.

The First Minister said “we are in the containment phase” but the situation is under “ongoing review”.

She added the Scotland v France Six Nations game is still scheduled to take place in Edinburgh this weekend and there has been no change to plans for the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow later in the year.

Cobra “signed off of a four-nation action plan” to guide the countries’ response to the virus and will be published on Tuesday, Ms Sturgeon announced.

Asked about whether big events such as the climate summit were at risk of being called off, Ms Sturgeon said: “We are not at that stage yet – decisions will be guided very firmly by the scientific advice that all four Governments are receiving.”

She added: “The public should be reassured that there are well-established procedures and protocols in place.”

Earlier, Dr Calderwood told the BBC’s Good Morning Scotland programme the first person to test positive in Scotland is “clinically well”, adding they were “transferred to hospital last night as a precautionary measure only”.

She added: “The public can really help us and we’re going to keep saying these messages – wash your hands, don’t touch your face, sneeze or cough into a tissue and bin it immediately, and that can still help to contain this so we reduce the number of people it’s transmitted to.

“We would expect at least 80% of people to have very mild illness that they will recover quickly from and a very small number of people that need hospitalisation.”

She added: “At the moment, this is just precautionary so there’s no issue at all with our NHS services or capacity.”If this does spread throughout Scotland, it will become business as usual. It will become as we have with people with the flu that yes, some people are very ill, some people are less ill, we accept that and people get on with their normal business.”

Social media vs. the fake  “mainstream” media

In many previous articles, I’ve commentated on how social media was taking over from the once “mainstream” media who are constantly pushing out fake/biased news at us.

But in an interesting development the once mainstream media are for once having the luxury of being briefed directly by health experts – who can’t themselves be bothered to use social media. So, at this time they have at least that advantage over social media. Not that the fake media have anything more to say than the social media, but this is clearly a new dynamic. (if you wonder why I call the “mainstream” media, fake – just look at how they repressed news about such incidents as the year long riots in France or how they covered the brexit celebrations).

But as before, if you want to know what is really going on with coronavirus, you have to go to social media and here is one good example:

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I read there are 15 of the most acute beds in England, I calculate it’s more like  million people will need these beds. I don’t believe our politicians and medical staff have grasped the nature of this coronavirus pandemic. I thought I would work out what would be a viable plan. Continue reading →

https://www.change.org/p/urgently-increase-available-acute-hospital-beds-for-coronavirus-pandemic

Addendum

Twitter blocked me from promoting this petition even to the extent of blocking me sending messages to people I know. Quite literally they have killed people by that action. I have stopped using twitter.

I have been looking at available hospital beds and to be frank, I believe those responsible for failing to do anything when we clearly knew the scale of the issue in Wuhan, will end their days in prison for mass manslaughter. We need an order of magnitude more hospital beds than are available, and particularly intensive care beds. With beds about 1 in 50 of those infected may die. Without beds, it could be 1 in 25 or higher and will turn a huge tragedy into mass slaughter.

There may be strategies to avoid infection, but complete isolation for perhaps the year it will take to develop a vaccine is impossible. It seems there is really very little we can do except wait to the deaths and the trials of those responsibel. Therefore today I hastily prepared a “last will and testament”. Since there is nothing at all complicated about this and it may be of use to others, I thought I would publish a depersonalised version. I make no guarantee that it will stand up in court, but it is what I have had witnessed today and at least it is something. This will is intended for a married person with children without anything complicated like a business or ex spouse or illegitamate children.

THIS IS THE LAST WILL AND TESTAMENT of <full name>

of <address>

1. I revoke all my previous wills and codicils

2. To receive any gift or property under this will a beneficiary must survive me by thirty days otherwise it shall be interpreted to have the effect it would if they predeceased me.

3. Beneficiaries of my estate will receive a share of all my property and assets not specifically bequeathed or otherwise required for the payment of any debts owed, including but not limited to expenses associated with the probate of my will, payment of taxes, funeral expenses or other expenses resulting from the administration of my will

4. If she survives me I give all of my estate, or that part she chooses, to my wife and appoint her sole executor

5. For my remaining estate I give it divided equally to my children <names> and if my wife does not survive, I appoint them joint executors

6. If any of my children do not survive me or the gift to them shall fail for any other reason, their share shall be divided amongst their children, and if they do not survive, likewise to their descendants, if my child has no descendants, then their share shall be divided likewise amongst my other living children or similarly to their descendants, and if I have no living descendants, then my estate shall be divided amongst my children’s closest living blood relatives, excluding my own generation and any previous generation (where closeness is counted by the number of steps in familial generation up to a common ancestor and down to the relative)

7. Should there be other dependents, such as spouses of my children, which are not known when writing this will, then the executors may at their discretion, and as they see fit, make provision for these from within the appropriate share, providing the beneficiary agrees to sign a legally binding agreement that protects the inheritance so that any family heirlooms and substantial share of the estate is inherited by those who would otherwise have inherited the share as set out above

IN WITNESS whereof I have signed this my will this day of [month year]

Signed by the said as his last will in the presence of us both being present at the same time who at his request and in his presence and in the presence of each other have hereunto signed our names as witnesses

[Signature of testator]

[Signature of first witness]

[Name, address & occupation of first witness]

[Signature of second witness]

[Name, address and occupation of second witness]

Overnight the number of cases from S.Korea’s pro-active testing regime has increased to 2337 but the number of deaths remain the same. This means the number of infected individuals per current death is 180 which is the same as on the cruise ships. Turning this around means the death rate is 0.56%. If we assume 80% of people are infected, then the total death rate is about 0.4% and the most serious hospital care rates are around 2%. This means in terms of figures:

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The government have had weeks to prepare for this pandemic hitting the UK. As I have shown, the scale of the crisis was known at least 3 weeks ago by anyone with any intelligence looking at the stats (Coronavirus: estimated Scottish impact). The only things I got wrong is that I thought our politicians would actually do something instead of sit on their fat arses and talk about “the Union” (the never ending boring topic in Scotland).

But, now, it has got far worse. Because there is clear evidence that the majority of people with the virus will be unaware they have it (Coronavirus Alert – it’s Imminent). That makes containment by focussing only on those with symptoms largely ineffective. And vry unfortunately, containing the virus by focussing on those with symptoms appears to have been the only “plan” the government had.

Failed at the first hurdle

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