Update March 11th

just done some analysis on the latest figures and present UK trend. It is possible that the rate of growth over last few days has reduced (yellow portion). This change is currently very small and could be a statistical blip, so don’t get any hopes up, but there have been similar changes in other countries so it could be real. If true this would reduce the rate from 10 fold increase in ~7 days to 10 fold increase in ~14days. That may not sound very much, but with my model that means current peak on 26th April is pushed back to 6th Jun. That would give us another month to prepare for the peak. However the peak is still well beyond our capacity to cope, but on the other hand, we’ll all be quarantined in the sunshine and maybe the virus is less virulent in the summer.

On a less pleasant note, I see that the death rate in Italy has been rising for the last three days. That may indicate that they’re now operating beyond their capacity and so can no longer save those lives which could have been saved otherwise. This suggests that Italy’s healthservices started collapsing at around 6000 cases. Given they have twice as many intensive care units as the UK and about the same population, this suggests our own UK NHS will stop functionining when there are around 3000 people reported with CV.

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