Preparing for Nuclear War IV – Psychology

Posted on 23 June 2023 by Pict1

In the last three articles, I started to talk about the mechanics of preparation. Started … because I’m trying to work out what is needed.

In this article, I wanted to think a little about the psychology, because I can’t get my head around the fact I’m thinking through this appalling scenario, whilst normality is still happening around me and I’m doing the minimum actual preparation myself.

In part, the reason is the very rational: I don’t yet know what I’m trying to prepare for, and how I can prepare for it. So, for example, there is no point digging a hole in the garden to hide in, if it turns out that my best option is to move house. Indeed, it could be counterproductive, to have a big hole in the garden, when trying to sell the house and move.

But, in part, it is that I cannot believe what I think is coming, is coming. It’s the “rabbit unable to move in the headlights” scenario. I can see the danger, but I am fixated by the danger and unable to respond.

But also, I know most other people don’t see any issue. I am in a small minority who is predicting this terrible thing. My reasoning is based on my own understanding of similar historical events, and as such quite unique, and, let’s be honest, untested. And, it will remain untested and unproven, until it either proves a reliable way to forecast such appalling events, or it fails. Should I really trust my own judgement when so few agree? I got a lot right about covid, I was right about climate. When I finally did the research to understood that we were being lied to on Russia, I got that as well. I won’t always be right, I am not always right, but it’s absolutely certain that people like the media & politicians are wrong about such large scale things far more often than I am.

On the other side, I look at history and I look at the jews of Germany, and I keep asking: “why didn’t they get out before it started”. I can now see why. Even if you are aware of the danger, it is very hard to believe you are right. It’s so easy to just keep to your normal routine and put off doing anything about it. How do you square the reality of that “to do” list of household chores, with the fact that your house may not be there at all in a few weeks? I know how to to the “to do” list, I don’t know how to cope with my house being blown up. It’s easier to thing about the “to do” list, and ignore the possibility of your house being blow up.

It is just so much nicer to shut out the possibility of the appalling calamity and pretend life is normal, to preserve normality as long as possible to focus on the hear and now, and not to entertain the dark future. To keep partying to the end … and then die. Except you won’t. It will be a horrible death and you’ll hate yourself for partying.

A sensible approach: progressive preparedness

Continue reading →

Posted in Ukraine | Comments Off on Preparing for Nuclear War IV – Psychology

Preparing for Nuclear war III

Posted on 22 June 2023 by Pict1

In the last articles (Preparing for Nuclear war II) & then Revised Scenario I outlined what I consider to be likely scenarios for nuclear war. In this article, I want to start looking at some specifics. In particular what can be done to improve our chances of survival.

The Flash: duck and cover

The intense heat of the flash, is the most obvious start of a nuclear event. It is also the one thing that we can do most to protect ourselves against, because it doesn’t need complex shelters. The reason it is critical to protect from the flash, rather than initial radioactivity, is because if you are in the area where the initial radioactive radiation causes serious injury, you are also in the area where you are very likely to die from the blast wave. So, protecting yourself from the radioactivity, doesn’t help you survive, when the blast wave will get you.

If you are in the area where blast wave is killing people, the flash will be intense, the radiation will be intense, and you will likely be buried in rubble and die. Everything is against you. So unless you are lucky enough to be an extremely well made shelter before the blast, in the area where the direct radioactivity is an issue you are highly likely to die in the blast or shortly after.

However, if you are outside the area where the blast kills, you will survive, unless you get serious burns by the intense heat of the flash or suffer fallout. But since fallout mostly affects people downwind, it’s the flash that is the one single biggest factor for most people.

Unfortunately, the flash will cause serious life threatening burns over an extremely large area with a radius of 10s of kilometres. Whilst bigger bombs affect a much bigger area, on the “plus” side, the bigger the blast, the longer the “flash” and the more simply hitting the ground (“duck and cover”) can reduce your flash burn injuries.

So learn to HIT THE DECK … DO IT NOW!

Still reading? You’ve just killed yourself! Continue reading →

Posted in Ukraine | Comments Off on Preparing for Nuclear war III

Update from Ukraine 2023-06-22

Posted on 22 June 2023 by Pict1

Yesterday I finally went to check a (pro-Ukraine) map, to see what gains they were claiming. After a few minutes trying to find any changes, I finally spotted a couple. After thousands of deaths and huge equipment losses, Zelensky claims to have taken three small villages. However, I’m not sure if that is the true situation, as the fighting now appears to have moved forward into areas that are supposedly controlled by Zelensky. If so, the Russians aren’t saying anything.

But, it’s safe to say, that Zelensky’s first wave assault has got no-where. That might suggest they are now all but beat. But that may just be the impression the US wants the Russians to take. Zelensky cannot win a head on contest. He cannot win against the mass guns of Russia, where the US tech gimicks are all but useless. So, I think the US wants to draw Russia out and have a go at them in a “fair fight” … meaning an attempt at another Iraq.

There has certainly been a lot of obvious propaganda pushing the theme that Ukraine is nearly beat. So much, that someone is clearly pushing it out. So, this “Zelensky’s army is nearly beat” could all be a feint, to lure the Russians out of their strong defensive line, so as to get them mobile which would make them a lot more vulnerable to US weaponry … and presumably a US’ hidden reserves. As again, a lot of US propaganda which you’d use if you were trying to sneak in weaponry. But, then again, perhaps it’s a double bluff: US-Zelensky (aka USraine) is trying to pretend he is hiding weaponry, in order to desperately stop the Russians advancing, when the truth is USraine have no reserves at all.

Otherwise, there was a dearth of news yesterday. But that happens when both sides are clamping down and trying to stop the other side knowing what they know. And that is consistent with the type of information clampdown that precedes something large. But then again, perhaps after all the battles, USraine have had to retreat and just can’t launch more assaults.

Today, looking online, there has been a lot of missile activity over Ukraine. It seems that Zelensky’s  air defense system is near collapse. More suggestions that USraine moral is collapsing and Russian moral is very high. Russians are clearly delighted with their own performance and the way the defensive strategy is working.

Why did USraine fail?

I found these comments online. They seem to pretty well sum up a lot of the reasons for the failure of the USraine offensive. Continue reading →

Posted in Ukraine | Comments Off on Update from Ukraine 2023-06-22

Preparing for Nuclear – Revised Scenario

Posted on 22 June 2023 by Pict1

Yesterday in preparing for nuclear war II, I used a scenario of a single strike against the UK. On reflection, that seems unlikely, if for no other reason, than the aim of such a strike would be to force total capitulation, and given the arrogant fantasist behaviour of our politicians, it will take more than one decisive strike to force them to face reality.

So, I still do think there will be a “first” and devastating strike, at least to our ability to fire back. However, that may not be the actual first action and I’ve no doubt after thinking about it, that there will be a series of strikes, each aimed at progressively destroying our ability to resist.

As importantly, these will not all be nuclear. Indeed, the vast bulk of ordnance that hits the west is likely to be conventional arms, targeted at specific facilities, as small as a local gas terminal. I suspect the worst offenders like the BBC will be hit very early on (probably on the direct orders of the leader who like me, won’t think a lot of them). An obvious first target is to hit Westminster, MI5, MI6 GCHQ, all nuclear capability and all military command and control.

So, whilst there will be a devastating first wave of nuclear, there will also be conventional, the UK will try to retaliate, and that will cause wave after wave of attacks, to drive home the point that “we are not running out” and “any further attempt to retaliate will hurt you a lot more than it hurts us”.

Implications

This rather complicates things for us plebs who have to try to live through it. If you survive the first attack (and almost everyone except MPs, BBC & some military have a high chance of surviving), it doesn’t mean we are safe. As importantly, it doesn’t mean that if we weren’t affected by the first wave, we should forget about building ourselves a shelter or preparing provisions, etc.

Unlike a single sudden strike … where there is no chance to prepare, a series of attacks, means that most people will have some chance to prepare. That means, rather than “it’s all over before we can do anything”, there is a lot we can do.

Also, I hadn’t considered the use of conventional weapons. Potentially, the number of people whose chances of surviving can be improved by addressing the risks of conventional weapons may by a lot higher. It may be that sheltering from conventional weapons is the most effective way to increase survival chances. But that’s because Nuclear, is likely to either totally wipe you out, no matter how well you prepare, or leave you alone, making a shelter useless. Nuclear is a few key places, conventional could hit everywhere.

A nuclear shelter really has to be underground to be effective. Anything above ground, and your best strategy is to wait perhaps 12hours and then get moving, because the shelter is not increasing your chances of survival after that. But a conventional shelter can be above ground. It means we can all increase our chances of survival.

Also my concept of “move out the fallout zone (at the right time)” … was premised on a single strike, after which everywhere but the fallout zones is safe. In contrast, with continuing hits, there are now substantial risks for those moving around. The concept of “moving to safety” disappears.

Posted in Ukraine | 1 Comment

Preparing for Nuclear War II

Posted on 21 June 2023 by Pict1

Last year I started looking into what was needed to prepare for a nuclear war. In part, this was because my analysis of history indicated that large “revolutions” in information, usually led to periods of appalling behaviour such as the Witch trials and the various atrocities of Hitler, Stalin Mao in the early 20th century.

The purpose of this article, is to explain, what I believe to be a realistic scenario, and to start to think about what we as individuals can do to prepare. Key to that preparation, is having a concept of what “survival” looks like. Because unless we both believe a nuclear war is possible and also believe surviving is feasible, there doesn’t appear to be much point preparing.

Why believe me? Because as a physicist I understand the impacts of nuclear, and as someone researching survival, I have looked into survival techniques. And last year I started, not by looking at a survival book, or worse a prepping site, but by looking at what had been successful strategies during other emergencies. Not just 20th century, but going way back into history. Does that mean I will be right? Probably not, but I would hope to be less wrong than the vast bulk of other people writing on the subject.

As history is our best predictor of the future, and as nuclear war seems to be on the table right now, it looks very likely, given the current behaviour of politicians, that we will end in nuclear war. It’s a terrible thing to say, and I could be wrong, but I’ve not yet seen anything to suggest the necessary sanity to prevent such an atrocity is returning. (We still have the utter madness of “net zero”, the most costly public policy ever … which is unlikely to do anything for the climate. We saw the insanity of locking up the country and closing down the NHS, for a bug that was not a lot worse than flus we see every ten years. And now Ukraine. Common sense seems to have departed politics … and that seems to be heading us towards nuclear war)

So, unless things improve, we should expect a nuclear war as more likely than not. Or perhaps the “atrocity” is something else entirely … the only way to tell what the actual threat may be, is a time machine, something which I do not have.

But, it does seem that we ought to start preparing. I’m still struggling with that. The concept that we ought to prepare for something so terrible … surely it can’t happen … but people thought the same about Hitler, and they no doubt also thought “it can’t happen”, they thought the same about Mao, about the witch trials. They can and do happen. It is a matter of fact they can and do happen, and if, as seems to be the case, this is the time that another one is likely to happen, then the rational thing to do is to prepare.

How to prepare

Continue reading →

Posted in Ukraine | 4 Comments

Preparing for Nuclear war

Posted on 19 June 2023 by Pict1

I read today a press release that suggests NATO may issue an invitation to Ukraine to join NATO. In other words, it will go against its own article that any country that joins NATO must be at peace.

My prediction, if this happens, is that Russia will simply ignore the move by NATO. (It will see as just another empty threat after a series of empty threats) Instead, it will continue prosecuting the war in Ukraine. Based on the stupidity of all bureaucracies, who once set on a policy, cannot then turn back from the brink, I then predict having set themselves on a course of stopping Russia by threatening to make the Ukraine conflict a NATO conflict, that when Russia ignores them, that NATO will then speed up the process of Ukraine joining. As Russia will keep ignoring them, it could mean that within days, Ukraine will join NATO. Given the boneheads in our own “government”, that will then mean the UK, will be at war with Russia.

Whereupon, having already sent much of NATO’s equipment to Ukraine to be destroyed, the bunch of bonehead politicians who are intent on regime change in Russia, facing the world’s best army and with no way to climb down and nothing left to threaten Russia with except nuclear war, NATO will issue just such a threat.

And I’m sure Russia has foreseen that and is ready with its own response.

That means we could very rapidly go from an “invitation” to Ukraine, to full blown nuclear war with Russia deciding it is in its strategic interest to strike first.

My advice is that, if Nato issues such an invitation to Ukraine, that it would be reasonable to urgently finalise & make concrete your preparations for nuclear war.

What do preparations for nuclear war look like?

Good question!

There is a lot that can be done to massively improve your chances of survival. I will be very happy to discuss them with anyone for a fee.

Posted in Ukraine | 6 Comments

Let the woke go first … to distract the lions

Posted on 19 June 2023 by Pict1

I realised today, that my motives for keeping quiet and keeping a low profile, may not be that altruistic.

The woke, in all sorts of ways, are pushing us toward a disaster. It might seem sensible to try to stop them, but I’ve lost interest in stopping them.

To use an analogy, I’ve stopped trying to tell most people the Titanic is sinking. That no longer has any purpose. Instead, I’m now focussing on the people who know the boat is sinking, who look like useful people to have on the lifeboat, but most of all I want to ensure the woke keep up their delusion long enough that they are still denying the undeniable long enough that they don’t grab my place on the lifeboat.

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Let the woke go first … to distract the lions

Is woke falling apart?

Posted on 12 June 2023 by Pict1

With the climate madness now hitting the buffers of reality, fewer and fewer people are thinking that the woke climate agenda is the future for them. With Black Lives Matter and its racist agenda of splitting the world into those who matter and those who don’t, now a dirty word for the way most money was creamed off. With the reality of Russia winning in Ukraine, as the lies of the media hit the buffers of yet another failed Ukrainian offensive and the simple fact that all the western media lies are doing, is to discredit the west in the eyes of the rest of the world. Woke is no longer working.

It seems it really was a fashion. A fashion, that is here yesterday, going tomorrow. No doubt like safety pins in the noses, in 40 years time there will be some decrepit old person who still refers to themselves and “they” and demands to be treated not as a woman, nor man, but as a blob sex in the middle, but like aging hippies of previous generations, they will be smiled at, rather than taken seriously.

The reality is that Russian is winning the war because of three things:

  1. It’s own manufacturing industry, with control over its own raw materials
  2. Abundant and cheap fossil fuels
  3. A homogenous society where men are valued for being men and heroism is an asset not something to be squashed as in the west.

All these were wiped out by the woke agenda. A woke agenda, which I’ve no doubt that Russia and China helped spread in the west … for exactly the reason that all three are needed to fight a war with Russia and China. And, now the reality, whether they like it not (they don’t), is that without nurturing our own industry, having our own cheap and abundant fossil fuels, and without a society where men are valued and fit to be heroes … the west can never win a war. And, now the rest of the world know the west are really wimps who cannot stand up to Russia or China, and so the bully power of the west to force its banks and values on the rest of the world is disappearing.

And, without forcing the rest of the world to bank with the west, where a massive percentage is creamed off to sustin the western elites in the manner they demand, the west is going to be destroyed economically. And, that is the end of western power (but that will take up to a century).

The future

The world is quickly becoming dominated by China and Russia. The US, once all powerful, is quickly losing its power. The dollar is soon going to be diminished as a global currency, probably only really significant in “the west” … the area  which still allows its media to be controlled by US corps … who then sell the viewers to the highest bidder for their brainwashing. Russia is going to dominate, not because of power, but through influence and support … a totally alien concept in the west! China will dominate by the mere fact of its size and demand for resources. But India, Brasil, etc. are going to be as influential as the EU. As for the UK … I think playing second fiddle whilst being screwed by the US and pandering to every woke cause and being seeing as a deluded paranoid hypochondriac … is not going to do a lot for the UK’s reputation. But I can see it solving the immigration problem … as all the immigrants start realising that the UK is not a good prospect and that economic prosperity lies elsewhere.

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Is woke falling apart?

Kiev’s failed offensive

Posted on 7 June 2023 by Pict1

The supposed USraine offensive started a few days ago. I’m not sure when, because like a cold it didn’t just start, but began trickling out. And, it’s not like it wasn’t long awaited. It’s almost the height of the summer, and this was supposed to be a “spring” offensive!

I knew there were problems the first day of the supposed “offensive”, because the posts saying it had started were not matched by any other posts giving any details. And, so, I went back a couple of times to try to work out whether I had missed something.

To put it simply, apart from the posts that were saying the offensive had begun, there wasn’t much that would lead me to believe that something major was happening. Yes, a few more disasters for USraine, but I’ve grown very used to seeing that now.

Then the dam broke … literally. As a sceptic,. I’m not saying “USraine did it”, but as there seems to be almost no benefit for the Russians, and the USrainians are glotting about it, … well it’s quite clear they believe they did it. Why? To create a distraction from the failed offensive. Which, shows how absolutely abysmal it has been.

Is it a bluff?

Are USraine trying to pretend that this is all they have, and then there’s this massive army waiting in the wings to produce some triumphal “victory” as claimed by the lying controlled western brainwashing “media”. Does it matter? The very fact they resorted so quickly to blowing the dam, shows how appalling the “offensive” has been.

Anyone who is in control of when and where an offensive is, and that usually wouldn’t be the enemy, is going to have an advantage on the first days. It should have been easy for USraine to flood the media with claims of “victory” for a few days, but they couldn’t even achieve that very short appearance of winning.

Even for a bluff, it’s a complete utter failure.

Where from here?

Russia & China have been preparing for this war for decades. There has been an enormous amount of groundwork creating the woke agenda in the west that makes western countries so impotent.

USraine, is strategically important to Russia, but I don’t see it sacrificing all the work it has put in to undermine the west for the sake of a small bit of USraine.

So, I think there is a much bigger agenda. The biggest impact on the west, would be to destroy the dollar as the de facto trading currency, and that is a much greater prize than a small bit of USraine filled with Russian hating fascists.

So, the bigger picture is the global realignment of countries away from the west and toward China and Russia.

However, that still leaves the west as a very dangerous enemy, one that may just wake up to the way its been manipulated by the woke agenda to basically implode in on itself to the benefit of Russia and China.

So I do feel that they have bigger plans for us. And our politicians are like lambs going to the slaughter, believing they are the ones doing the slaughtering.

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Kiev’s failed offensive

Alice in Wokeland.

Posted on 20 April 2023 by Pict1

For many years I’ve fought against the insanity of anti-science climate extremism. But, now I’m rather happy, that I didn’t succeed, or at least, in the insanity of a world where the US and UK are now attacking Russia, it is the insanity of the Climate Extremists, who are making it impossible for the insane people running the US and UK to prosecute their insane war against the Russian Federation.

Russia was funding climate extremism in the west, just in the same way as the Soviet Union funded the unions who destroyed our coal and heavy industry. I knew from the moment I found out that Russia was funding our cliamte extremists, that this was an attack on the west, but what I did not know, was that they were responding to the west who were planning to attack Russia. Russia was laying the groundwork of its defences through a variety of programs, including climate, that undermined the west’s ability to successfully prosecute a war against the Russian Federation. And, it has been a tremendous success (and in the unlikely event anyone from the Kremlin reads this: well played! You deserve your victory!)

It’s rather bizarre: I now look at all the things I utterly detest about the west, and I realise that almost all of them have undermined the west’s ability to wage war with Russia and China. Coincidence? I don’t think so.

So, in the madness of the western elite wanting to start a nuclear war with Russia and China, the only thing that makes them hold back, is the utter calamnity of the woke, alarmist, paranoic culture that the wetern “elite” have created. For example, all those transgender US generals who are so putting off young men from joining the US military: they are the ones stopping WWIII and nuclear armageddon. I never saw that coming!

Of course, I could ask the question: “If Russia and China had not interfered so much in Westeren culture to create the woke calamnity we now have, would the west have still been so insane as to go to war with Russia?” But, like the Russian and Chinese elite, I’m not sure how this Alice in Wokeland culture of the west would have behaved without them. The Furthermore, the Russians and Chinese, would have only helped the woke culture flourish and guided it toward their own ends, but fundamentally I think its roots are very western.

Which, leaves me wondering: should I actually start supporting the climate extremists nuts? Should I even support woke?

yours Alice?

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Alice in Wokeland.