#NOAAgate: US committee on Science & tech: Former NOAA Scientist Confirms Colleagues Manipulated Climate Records

WASHINGTON – U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Science, Space, and Technology members today responded to reports about the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) 2015 climate change study (‘the Karl study’). According to Dr. John Bates, the recently retired principal scientist at NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center, the Karl study was used ‘to discredit the notion of a global warming hiatus and rush to time the publication of the paper to influence national and international deliberations on climate policy.’
Chairman Lamar Smith (R-Texas): ‘I thank Dr. John Bates for courageously stepping forward to tell the truth about NOAA’s senior officials playing fast and loose with the data in order to meet a politically predetermined conclusion. In the summer of 2015, whistleblowers alerted the Committee that the Karl study was rushed to publication before underlying data issues were resolved to help influence public debate about the so-called Clean Power Plan and upcoming Paris climate conference. Since then, the Committee has attempted to obtain information that would shed further light on these allegations, but was obstructed at every turn by the previous administration’s officials. I repeatedly asked, ‘What does NOAA have to hide?’
‘Now that Dr. Bates has confirmed that there were heated disagreements within NOAA about the quality and transparency of the data before publication, we know why NOAA fought transparency and oversight at every turn. Dr. Bates’ revelations and NOAA’s obstruction certainly lend credence to what I’ve expected all along – that the Karl study used flawed data, was rushed to publication in an effort to support the president’s climate change agenda, and ignored NOAA’s own standards for scientific study. The Committee thanks Dr. Bates, a Department of Commerce Gold Medal winner for creating and implementing a standard to produce and preserve climate data, for exposing the previous administration’s efforts to push their costly climate agenda at the expense of scientific integrity.’
Oversight Subcommittee Chairman Darin LaHood (R-Ill.): ‘I applaud Dr. Bates’s efforts in uncovering the truth of this data manipulation, and I commend Chairman Smith and the Science Committee for conducting rigorous oversight on behalf of the American people. Transparent and faithful execution of the scientific process, especially where taxpayer dollars are involved, is crucial to ensure that our policies are based on sound science and not on politically predetermined outcomes.’
Environment Subcommittee Chairman Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.): ‘I commend Dr. Bates for bringing to light the corrupt practices used by his former colleagues and hope this serves as a deterrence to anyone thinking of manipulating science to serve their own political agenda. I applaud Chairman Smith and the Science Committee’s efforts to provide the necessary oversight to ensure the American people have the best information possible.’
Background
In the summer of 2015, NOAA scientists published the Karl study, which retroactively altered historical climate change data and resulted in the elimination of a well-known climate phenomenon known as the ‘climate change hiatus.’ The hiatus was a period between 1998 and 2013 during which the rate of global temperature growth slowed. This fact has always been a thorn in the side of climate change alarmists, as it became difficult to disprove the slowdown in warming.
The Karl study refuted the hiatus and rewrote climate change history to claim that warming had in fact been occurring. The committee heard from scientists who raised concerns about the study’s methodologies, readiness, and politicization. In response, the committee conducted oversight and sent NOAA inquiries to investigate the circumstances surrounding the Karl study.
Over the course of the committee’s oversight, NOAA refused to comply with the inquiries, baselessly arguing that Congress is not authorized to request communications from federal scientists. This culminated in the issuance of a congressional subpoena, with which NOAA also failed to comply. During the course of the investigation, the committee heard from whistleblowers who confirmed that, among other flaws in the study, it was rushed for publication to support President Obama’s climate change agenda.
For a complete timeline of the Science Committee’s oversight of NOAA’s 2015 climate change study, click here.
Source: US Committee on Science, Space & Technology: Former NOAA Scientist Confirms Colleagues Manipulated Climate Records
(Note: I’m not familiar with this outlet as an official source, but it looks official to me)
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Coverage and reaction to Mail's revelation: world leaders duped by fake climate data

Add-Beginum: This #noaagate or perhaps #climategate2 is turning out to be bigger than I thought. Like #climategate it is starting with the blogs, and the establishment media is taking it’s time. But given the speed with which all climate blogs and some blogs I’ve never seen have taken this up, I cannot believe it won’t go big in the press.
I think I was the first to start using the term “the pause” and was certainly instrumental in popularising it on the blogs … so as my “baby”, I naturally felt a little aggrieved when the pause deniers tried to squash it to death with their fake data. So, when a whistle-blower came forth to say there was fake data – it didn’t sound like news to me!
Of course, the pause still undeniably exists in the only credible climate data from Satellites (the rest being heavily adjusted to get rid of the pause) – but that did not stop NOAA creating fake science to try to try to justify their politically motivated obliteration of the pause from their climate records.

The story broke (again) yesterday in the Mail with the Headline:

Exposed: How world leaders were duped into investing billions over manipulated global warming data

Quickly followed by the climate blogs:

Official Response:

US Committee on Science, Space & Technology: Former NOAA Scientist Confirms Colleagues Manipulated Climate Records

Press:

Other Blogs/Forums (just a selection as far far too many to list)

Videos:

And reaction from fake science blogs:

Comment

I’ve always assumed the reason Senator Lamar Smith and the US committee on science pursued NOAA was because they had an internal whistle-blower who knew the evidence they used was fake science. But as we know, their subpoena whilst entirely proper and legal was not complied with by NOAA. Thus NOAA was acting in clear contravention to the law and the US constitution by not complying with a legal request from their oversight committee. The only problem was the committee need Obama to enforce the law – and for political reasons given the Democrat position, he would not.
So, following Trumps inauguration, I thought the new Trump appointed head of NOAA would force compliance and therefore Lamar Smith would come straight back, reopen the NOAA investigation bringing forth his star witness and the fake science data.
So, I was surprised last week to see that this week Lamar’s gunning for the EPA. Now however, we see … probably because there’s just so much corruption to root out … that the NOAA whistle-blower has come out publicly ahead of Lamar’s investigation.

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The Caterpillar Effect: Now with second confirmation it must be rock solid science

[Note: This post reports confirmation that the theory I presented a while back on tectonic plate movement has been confirmed and is sound science. However, given the deafening silence I will make it sticky for a while.]
Back in 2015 when I first published the Caterpillar Theory on this blog (Overview), I was taking a gamble putting together almost “anecdotal” evidence from the shape of the ice-age curve and the simple physics of thermal expansion. I took a gamble and now it seems very clear I was right!!
The theory predicted two basic phenomenon:

  1. That during colder period of the ice-age cycle, the cooling earth would contract and mid-oceanic ridges would open up allowing magma to flow up and cause plate formation. Thus this plate formation would be modulated by the ice-age cycle
  2. That during the warming phase, heated crust would expand, and where plates met at subduction zones, one plate would be forced down. The lowest parts would be pushed down to a depth where they would thermally decompose, the volatile components like H2O, CO2, sulphur, etc. would be released, find their way to the surface and be released increasing the level of volcanic emissions.

The first prediction was confirmed almost as soon as I published in a paper by Maya Tolstoy (Link) the following graph is a redrawing of fig 3 and  shows a correlation between mid-ocean sea floor spreading and Temperature (where CO2 is a proxy for temperature).

Fig XX Bathymetric and ice-age cycle (CO2) data normalized to a aximum amplitude of 1, and superimposed

Fig XX Bathymetric and ice-age cycle (CO2) data normalized to a aximum amplitude of 1, and
superimposed


Continue reading

Posted in Caterpillar, Ice age, My Best Articles | 12 Comments

Clouds now appear to be the Climate "Hard stop"

If you’re a regular reader of my blog, you will have heard me refer to the climate “Hard stop”. See e.g. “Can variations in lapse rate & cloud cover explain ice-age temperature changes and the inter-glacial “hard stop”?”
To explain this very simply, each time the planet warms from an interglacial, it comes to a stop within a very narrow band of temperatures:

Simplified features of the ice-age cycle

Simplified features of the ice-age cycle


What this means to anyone who understand feedback mechanisms (which is extremely important in analogue electronics), is that there is a non-linearity in the feedback mechanisms at this “level” (temperature), such that there’s a “hard stop” in the signal so that (within normal limits) it cannot warm further.global-warming
In other words, whilst the warming from the interglacial seems extremely likely to be the result of the dreaded positive feedbacks so beloved by climate snowflakes, if we didn’t have the “hard stop”, the climate would just keep warming and warming and warming (in the vicious cycle of “non stop warming” so beloved by Climate Snowflakes) and following the very first such warming, the earth would have turned into a fiery ball of flame!
So, the positive feedbacks that are almost certainly present when we come out of an ice-age, either disappear to come to nought at our interglacial temperature, or some strong negative feedback appears OR BOTH!
By chance I came across a recent article on WUWT:

Claim: climate feedback is low due to clouds “impeding global warming”

In response to increased carbon dioxide, climate models predict a nearly uniform warming of the planet that favors reductions in highly reflective low clouds and a positive feedback. In contrast, over the last 30 years, tropical surface temperatures have increased in regions where air ascends and decreased where air descends. “This particular pattern of warming is nearly optimal for enhancing low cloud coverage because it increases low-level atmospheric stability that keeps the lower atmosphere moist and cloudy”, said Stephen Klein, the third co-author.

This research is important, not because I am particularly interested in the “planetary hard stop” – because I’ve known for many years that it existed and that further warming was extremely unlikely.
However, what is important is knowing that it relates to low level clouds, rather than to the sudden disappearance of positive feedbacks. This means I don’t need to find a positive feedback with some “kink” in the feedback curve so that the positive feedback suddenly disappear by some mechanism at the interglacial temperature. Instead the evidence points to the appearance of negative feedbacks in the cloud.
In other words, I can treat the “hard stop” as being distinct from the “warming” and “cooling” phases of the ice-age cycle.

Furture Plans

Trump’s election, further movement towards common sense of climate is far more likely to come from what Trump’s administration do, than anything I can achieve in the science.
So, my current plan is to leave further work on the ice-age cycle until after the development of the La Nina (if any). That’s for two reasons: first, with the huge instrumentation and earth coverage we now have, this strong El Nino – La Nina cycle should provide tons of data (if not necessarily answers). And secondly, if you’re going to write about ice-ages, the best time to do it is when the earth appears to be cooling.

Posted in Caterpillar, Climate, Ice age | 6 Comments

The Chilling effect of Trump on Climate reporting

Following the initial snowfall of fake news articles on Trump’s devastating effect on climate from the Once Mainstream Media, something strange has happened:
The number of Newspapers reporting on “Global Warming” has dropped, and now perhaps 1 in 4 “News” articles are just ignorant bloggers, rather than ignorant journalists (Google excludes all blogs and news outlets from Scientific Sceptics from its “News”).
This drop may simply be because the Press are holding their breath awaiting Trumps appointment of various heads (people who will finally get those calling themselves “scientists” to adhere to the standards of us Sceptics i.e. evidence based science).
Or, it may be that Trump’s curtailing those like NOAA and NASA releasing endless anti-industry propaganda dressed up as “science” has had the chilling effect.
Or … it might be that the snowflakes have so much else to fill their bilious columns with.

But I suspect it is the calm before the storm!

 

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Science versus Sceptic

For some time, I’ve been aware that the way the media use “science” and what I was taught was meant by “science” are now two very different things. And it comes down to headlines like this:

Scientists Just Sharply Denounced Trump’s Travel Ban

The problem here, is that science (as I was taught it), is a method whereby we try to totally eliminate observer bias and that includes our political views. So you must choose, either you are a politician, or you are a scientist. That is not to say that a real scientist cannot have a political view, just as a juror cannot have a political view about a criminal trial in which they are a juror. But whilst you are acting as a scientist, just as when you are acting as a juror – you leave your politics outside the courtroom/lab.
But that seems to be increasingly untrue these days in “science”. And what is worse, these days, anyone from academia seems to be called a “scientist”. Maybe that’s because I’m reading more articles from the US where it seems to have a far more lax usage. But I’ve even heard “science” used for an archaeologist who I’ve little doubt would not have used the term themselves. Instead it was some cheap journalist using a catch all term for “academic” (not from the arts). It is now almost meaningless as a term. it doesn’t imply any actual standards or techniques or quality.
And so to the vast majority of the population and most journalists – “science” is a pretty meaningless term these days. When I try to define it, I end up with the same basic definition: it’s almost exclusively used for the group of government/University employees who’ve done a non-arts degree. And, whether or not they use the scientific method, whether or not they allow their own political views to colour their public statements, whether or not they’ve actually talking about a subject they know about or in some cases have been taught any science at all – whatever their actual knowledge or the quality of their work, they are all scientists to the press and public.

What then is a sceptic?

I’m more and more coming to the view, that a sceptic is what I used to call a “scientist”. Or what I’m increasing having to call a “Real scientist”. By that I mean someone who requires evidence before accepting an assertion. They require high standards of evidence using for example, the “scientific method” – trying to disprove an assertion, rather than moulding the data to fit. Someone who tries to remove their own personal, political and observational biases. Basically someone for whom “science” means a quality standard.
In simple terms, the difference between a sceptic and a “scientist” is this: a sceptic starts from a sceptical position and requires good impartial evidence to change their mind. In contrast, a “scientist” is now little more than a group identity for certain academics and researchers who’s only group attribute is they “measure things” and use maths.
In conclusion
Scepticism is a philosophy demanding a rigorous intellectual approach.
And to put it very crudely: Science is now a paypacket and/or a ticket into the media.
Terminology
As such I am seriously considering changing my terminology. What I value as high quality work is “scepticism” not science. And those who adhere to this philosophy may belong to the academic clan called “science”, but if they use the sceptic method, their highest accolade is to be hailed as a true sceptic not as another no-quality-control “scientist”.

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Common sense resturning to the Judiciary

For years we’ve seen a number of quite outrageous anti-science statements from a variety of judges who clearly didn’t know much about science nor the strong evidence contradicting the supposed theory of catastrophic warming and the clear evidence of deception by those like NASA with their fake temperatures.
However, now a Washington state judge has outraged the eco-terrorists and their snowflake supporters by saying:

“I don’t know what everybody’s beliefs are on [Manmade global warming], but I know that there’s tremendous controversy over the fact whether it even exists. And even if people believe that it does or it doesn’t, the extent of what we’re doing to ourselves and our climate and our planet, there’s great controversy over that.”

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Next year's fashionable colour is electric

I used to work in the fashion industry in tights. And what surprised me was a discussion one day about the colour that was going to be fashionable, not in the next year, but the year after. It turned out, that the fashion industry all sat down and agreed what colours they would make fashionable in two years time.
And … what astounded me even more was how women (for it was mostly women at that time) … were so gullible that they went along like sheep and bought the colour they were brainwashed to buy (when everything in their wardrobe was perfectly adequate).
I could go on about how women seem to be inherently susceptible to fashion as even evident in old photos (except for men who hardly change their fashion until modern brainwashing), but instead today I want to talk about BBC brainwashing:

“The future is electric”

For years, the BBC have been broadcasting these programs about “the future”. Or in other forms “Industry is the past”. When I was a kid, I didn’t know any better and really did think the BBC knew better than I did. But now looking back at the BBC and their total cock-up on global warming and the way they jump on every fad … it’s clear to me their “future” has more to do with the “future” in fashion than it has to do with what ordinary people actual want or need.

In other words, these “the future is electric” ads on the TV (for that is all they really are), are not a prediction in the traditional sense of the word, but instead like the colour fixing fashion industry, they are an attempt to brainwash the gullible public into going clone like to the car show room to buy the latest eco-fascist fad.

The psychology of the Global Warming Gullibles

The basic difference between alarmists and sceptics is simple: alarmists desire to be socially acceptable. As such they go along with ideas like Global Warming they feel are “socially acceptable” and therefore they almost certainly buy clothes that are socially acceptable or “fashionable”. They are the quintessential gullible mass-market consumer who has wardrobes filled with unnecessary clothes they’ll never wear again because it is “last year’s fashion”. (That’s why they feel so guilty – why they are obsessed with finding a purpose for all that garbage sitting in their wardrobe – why they need “recycling to salve their conscience for so gullibly buying the useless fashionable garbage in the first place) Continue reading

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Is Trump delaying NOAA investigation by House Science committee?

After a week with President Trump in office, I wanted to see what progress had been made in forcing NOAA to comply with the lawful request for data from NOAA by the House Science and Technology committee run by Congressman Lamar Smith. And eventually I found this tweet:

So, paradoxically we are now in a position where the “global warming” hating Trump is now responsible for the illegal activity of NOAA refusing to comply with a lawful subpoena of the house.

Come on Trump – what’s the delay?

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Prince Charles: No budding Einstein

In the back of my mind I had a recollection that “Prince” Charles was not exactly a high academic achiever. Indeed, I seem to recall there was something dodgy about his University degree.
However, given how the right Charlie just loves to pontificate about atmospheric physics, I loved this quote I found in the Daily Mail from April 2010.

Hardly a Prince of Maths!:The 1963 exercise book that reveals Charles’s struggle with the subject

the answers in this 1963 mathematics book suggest that while this schoolboy may have been conscientious, he was no budding Einstein.

And here I must add, that in theory the monarch is still elected. That is to say, before William the Bastard seized the thrown, the monarch was elected by the people. And that right has been exercised continuously till this present day. WHAT? you may well ask!
What happened is that the coronation was manipulated so that instead of an actual election by the people, a small group of the “people” (namely the choristers of Westminster School) were instructed to sing in Latin a phrase which voices their and (as no one else knows there’s an election happening at that point) everyone else’s support.
More importantly, no Monarch has the power to bind the people’s choice of their succession. And as parliament acts under the monarch’s power, it too is limited and cannot bind the people to who they choose as successor.
So constitutionally, if enough of us plebs, realised we had the right to elect the next monarch and we all shouted “no” to The right Charlie, he’d not be monarch.
(And no, it does not mean we have the right to have regular elections!)

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