Scottish Sceptic

The great thing I’ve discovered with shredding old files is that because they get bulked up in the shredder, it looks like you’ve done a lot more work than you have.
The highlight was shredding the whole Scottish executive (a huge organisational chart poster) which went through with a satisfying squeel.
With seven bin bags full, I’m really starting to appreciate the benefits such as leg room to push my chair back, a lathe that no longer acts as a filing cabinet draw, and £35 which had somehow dropped to the bottom of the real filing cabinet (although it looks so old I’m not sure it’s all still legal tender).

Over the years I have enjoyed the freedom to comment & speculate on what I thought was going on in the area of climate.
However, recently I’ve written a string of articles, but have at the last minute decided that such articles would be of no use to the Republicans in the US, but instead could assist the Greenblob.
So, if you notice an ominous silence from me, … it’s because I’m trying desperately to keep a diplomatic silence.

For a while I’ve been convinced there is a strong correlation between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and “global temperature”. AMO is shown below, I was going to post a graph of global temperature, but the problem these days is finding any graph that any longer represents global temperature (most are just the fraudulent lies of data adjusters  – let’s hope that soon changes!!).

http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/esrl-amo

• 1860-1880 maximum
• 1890-1905 – cooling
• 1910-1920 – minimum
• 1930 – warming
• 1940-1960 -maximum
• 1967 – peak cooling
• 1973 minimum
• 1990-2000 warming
• 2000-??? – maximum

This gives rise to the following:

• max-max ~80yrs
• cool-cool ~70yrs
• min-min ~60yrs
• warm-warm ~ 65yr

We also have the start of another maximum at 2000, but as yet no end.  There are other similar starts at 1860 & 1940. This gives another estimate of 70 years. Including this with the above we obtain an average of:   69yrs with a typical range of +/- 10yrs.
Maximum
If this patterns continues,  give the best estimate of the last maximum was 1950 – (80-70)/2 =  1945, the best estimate of the next maximum is 1945+70 = 2015 (range 2005-2025).  This is a little later than would be expected with an earliest start of the maximum at 2000.
Cooling
Best estimate of maximum cooling is 1967 + 69yrs =  2036 (range 2026-2046)
Worst/best Scenario global temperature
The best estimate is that the AMO maximum will end at latest around 2025.

There is currently a “gap” in politics in Scotland which is for a party with Scotland’s best interests at heart which is not obsessive about independence nor anti business as all on the left now are.
I’ve been looking for a suitable party for years, and unfortunately, the choice either appears to be a mainstream party run from England or a party whose policies seem to have been written by some academic “political scientist”.
So, today I thought I’d try to produce a simple pragmatic party manifesto:

1. The party will be known as the Caledonian** Party
2. We are committed to a democracy that works both in the sense of the most pragmatic means to allow the people’s voice to decide our future, but also in the economic sense of a balance between the rights of individuals and the need to earn our way in the world.
3. We are a Scottish party, not by nationalist inclination, but as a party working for the best interests of the people of Scotland whether they decide to be part of a wider Union or not.
4. We are for public provision and support for good quality education so as to provide the next generation the necessary skills to enhance and grow our economic, social and political skills for the interests of all of us. We aim to modernise further education and will invest to enable Scotland to become a world leader in the provision of internet based supply of further education. In addition we aim to open up research & other funding to target older retired or otherwise economically inactive individuals, with the aim of better utilising this vast untapped reserve of talent.
5. We believe we all have a responsibility to do what we can to keep ourselves fit & healthy, but we also believe medical care for the sick is a hallmark of a civilised society. Thus we  support the public delivery of high quality medical treatment which should remain free to those with serious medical needs.
6. We support private enterprise. As such we will aim for a long-term change to rebalance the Scottish economy, working to increase the size and profitability of the tax-giving private sector and reducing the burden of unnecessary red tape.
7. We aim to have evidence based public policy and in order to support this, we will invest in the necessary research within Scotland to cover all relevant policy areas such as  economic development, environment, climate, education, social & health policy.
8. We are committed to human rights not as a luxury given to a few who have the means to enforce their rights in law, but as a general principle that all of us should be free from excessive or unnecessary government control of our lives.
9. We support our armed services and will support the provision of the necessary arms and personnel for a modern functional army.
10. We will work to improve the transport, energy and communication infrastructure of Scotland with the aim of providing equitable and affordable use across Scotland wherever practical.

Finally … it is time Scotland had an ambition.The US has chosen to go to Mars. Whilst Scotland is much smaller, that does not mean we shouldn’t have ambition. So we too should set ourselves a goal. Whilst that need not be a mission in space, there are nonetheless other important goals, that are achievable and within our means and which would unite our scientists and society. Such a goal, would define us not just for a few years or even a generation, but for many generations to come ideally making us a world leader.
**The name is not important.

You know that feeling when someone asks a question and you realise that your great new theory of science is wrong. You thank them for their observation … and then kick yourself for being such a dumb arse.
And then you wake up next morning realising that when you start amending the theory to take account of your stupid mistake – the way you have to change it means it’s far more profound and earth-shattering theory than you realised?
And then as your mind is thinking about all the wonderous new effects and what it means … you tell your daughter and they say: “My hair needs doing, I’m late for school”.

And it’s snowing.
(Who said kids won’t know what snow is – I’m going out!)

The general rule of batteries like AA, AAA, C, D types, is that you should always replace old batteries with three NEW ones of EXACTLY the same type. The reason for this, is that if you use three batteries of different capacities, then the device usually stops working when the lowest capacity battery goes flat. But worse, the other batteries can then reverse the energy flow through the flat battery making it likely to leak and destroy whatever you have in it.
However, YOU CAN USE OLD BATTERIES. Any for anyone who has kids, who are constantly breaking things or deciding they’ve grown out of them, this can save a lot of money.
The trick, is to take the working batteries out (and you’ll need to have a cheap tester for this – because it’s worse than useless storing flat batteries), and to store them away at the front of the draw where you keep the other batteries in their own compartment (aka cardboard box) … and here’s the important part kept together with the ones they were used with, with a rubber band.
The last is important, because you then have a draw filled with various makes and types of batteries held together by a rubber band. And so long as you re-use them together (or for example, use one or two out of the three) then they are as safe as using new ones.
And being at the front of the drawer … when you just need a few odd batteries in a hurry … these are the ones you take.
But one thing to bear in mind, is that whilst re-used batteries are ideal for things like kitchen timers, more kids games … where running out is not a problem, they will not last as long – so no sticking such batteries into a GPS, going into the wilderness without any spare (or a compass) and expecting to get home.