The citizen scientist – time to change?

The internet has created a new movement in science of the Citizen Scientist (aka sceptics in climate). This movement now rivals “official” sources for credibility in areas like climate. Is it time for this movement, which is so critical of “official” science for poor standards, to raise its own standards? Continue reading

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The Citizen Scientist : a paradigm shift in Science.

After several conversations regarding my article: “The Citizen Scientist“, I am beginning think this may possibly be the most important article I have ever written about the climate debate.
What I suggested is that sceptics can be considered as a community of citizen scientists, people from outside academia with an interest in science, joined together by the internet. We are not “anti-science” but instead an alternative community of scientists that now rivals the “official” community and in some (but not all) areas is beginning to exceed the skill and understanding of the “official” community.
This is a new paradigm in science: that science can exist amongst “the citizens” outside academia and outside the academic controlled communication channels of their journals. This is hard for academics to understand because they have what I described as a ‘closed shop’ culture in academia where largely:

science = academic science.

However, it is not only difficult for them to understand but also extremely threatening. “Outsiders” are beginning to threaten the monopolistic position of academia regarding scientific knowledge and authority. This, I think, goes a long way to explain much of the vitriol and hatred we have experienced from “official” science when even world governments appear to be listening to those outside academia on climate.
(The lack of action by world governments shows that governments are no longer slavishly following the “official” advice and so presumably tentatively acknowledging the credibility of the views of those citizen scientists called sceptics.)
Fundamentally, I think we are seeing a change in the power relationship between academia and outsiders. Before the internet, that relationship was the “master” and “student” and academics were looked to for “the answers”. Now, citizen scientists – empowered by the internet – do not simply accept the answers given by their academic  “masters”. Instead the internet allows “citizen scientists” to gain knowledge and develop their own answers.
This is as fundamental a change to academia as internet shopping was to the high street shops. And it is inevitable that this will be worrying to academics because:

“We citizens are no longer students of our academia masters but researchers and even professors in our own right.”

This, I think, is why we keep hearing academia saying they should “communicate better”. What this really means is that they wish to enforce the old power relationship where academic masters spoke and (student) outsiders listened. But that relationship has broken down in climate, and by extension it is likely to break down in many other areas where academia formerly could expect to be listened to as the single source of authority.
Scientific Authority
And scientific authority is perhaps the single most cherished prize of academia. Because formerly, it could assume that on all matters of science, governments would turn to academia for advice. But that appears to be under threat particularly in regard to the climate where that authority has been severely diminished by their failure to deliver reliable predictions or even admit their failures.
I am old enough to remember when “made in Japan” meant plastic toys that sank in the bath & “made in Britain” meant (was supposed to mean) quality. Within less than a generation, the unthinkable happened and the reputations were reversed.
Science “made in academia” used to be the hallmark of good quality. Now climate science has a very poor reputation.
In contrast, “internet” science has been portrayed (by academia?) as full of fantasy science and conspiracy theories. This is the meme of the attacks from those such as Lewandowsky. But now we are seeing sites specialising in climate (Climate Audit is a clear example) that surpass their academic rivals in rigour and understanding.

What we may be seeing, is that in areas like the climate where there is enough interest and robust informed debate, governments may be more willing to trust “citizen scientists” than what we tend to think as “official” sources.

Is it time to think the unthinkable? That the robust and chaotic exchanges of sceptics are a more credible source of advice to governments than those like the Royal Society?
Conclusion
The growth of “citizen science”, is challenging “official” science, largely as a result of the internet. This is because the internet is making it possible to build a well-informed community outside academia which now challenges it for authority on the subject. And, unless one were to “uninvent” the internet, that community will continue to grow and even flourish and not just on climate. As such we may see “citizen science” increasingly challenging academia for credibility in areas where academia thought it was the only authority on the subject.
This is a paradigm shift: one which is likely to change science and academia perhaps more fundamentally than we can now imagine.

Posted in Academia, History, Media, Sceptics, science | 60 Comments

Twas the day after Christmas

Twas the day after Christmas,
and all round the house,
lay sleepy children as quiet as a mouse.
The table top covered,
in tools and batteries,
as I try to make the pound shop things,
work as they should be.
The women out shopping,
What on earth is that about?
The men sitting round chatting,
about the women who are out.
Twas the day after Christmas
just 364 days to go,
until the house is again covered
in children’s fake snow.

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Reindeer Poo: a Happy Xmas and a cool New Year

reindeerpooA glass of whisky,
Some flour,
Some Cocoa powder,
Some porridge oats
Some Butter
Water as required.
Glitter
Mix up all ingredients except glitter and whisky together. Roll into a 1/2″ diameter sausage . Cut every 1/2″. Roll each bit into a very long egg shape.
Put glitter in a bowl and roll bits around to coat outside. Place neatly next to fire (on old newspaper). Scatter grass or oats around.
Now drink whisky and off to bed.
Happy Xmas

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Predictability of Weather & Climate

I bought Tim Palmer’s book “predictability of Weather & Climate”, to find out how climate scientists dealt with noise. This is it:

Essentially there are three reasons why forecasts are uncertain: uncertainty in the observations used to define initial state, uncertainty in the model used to assimilate the observations and to make forecasts, and uncertainty in ‘external’ parameters.
we will not deal further with such uncertainties of the ‘third kind’ but rather concentrate on the first two.

Climate science “does not deal” with natural variation. There is almost no reference (except the above sentence) in this £126 book about natural variation. They simply do not believe it exists and that this why there is no term within the climate models for natural variation.
So, unlike the real world, where natural variation is predominant, in the world of climate modellers … there is no (significant) natural variation.
Instead, their models have variation which is like a bunch of children at a party … it is hyper-active at the start, but within a few hours (years), it is largely exhausted and about to fall asleep … but unlike children, their initial condition variation, doesn’t wake up again.
Well the author Tim Palmer may be one of the best, but even the best have got it wrong, because … in the real world kids wake up! They don’t become more and more predictable, the longer the party goes on …
This explains why the Met Office think they can predict the climate in 100 years, when they have been proven unable to do it in one year.
Gotcha!
Best Xmas present I’ve had so far.
Merry Xmas & a cool New Year!!

Posted in Climate | 2 Comments

uClimate.com

After my article on the ranking of climate blogs, I was thinking how much work goes into all those 100s of blogs and if only all that effort could be put together onto one website … so I did …

uClimate.com

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The citizen scientist

Ticking bomb project for Project Lab

Ticking bomb project from Project Lab


The House of Commons Energy and Climate Committee have now published the submissions of the review of the IPCC and what an impressive collection it is. It is great to see so many citizens putting in their own time and effort to produce these superb submissions.
In one of the numerous pages that didn’t make it to my submission I introduced the idea of the “citizen scientist” which is the scientific equivalent of the “expert patient”. Reading the submissions, I regret not including it.
Continue reading

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Kinky climate blogs

Following the post Ranking of climate blogs (Dec 2013), I thought I would plot the ranking to see what it looked like. As expected given that the rankings go from a few thousands to the 10s of millions the main sites (left) are out of site “in the noise”:

Ordered list of Alexa ranking of sites.

Ordered list of Alexa ranking of sites.


So, in order to give some detail I plotted the vertical using a log scale to produce the following:
Ordered list of climate sites with vertical being the log of the Alexa ranking.

Ordered list of climate sites with vertical being the log of the Alexa ranking.


This is a surprising graph. as I show below, the main section is almost entirely straight. Continue reading

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Ranking of climate blogs (Dec 2013)

This is a list of the ranking of the main climate blogs based on Alexa. The sites were collected from those linked to by some of the main blogs as well as Realclimate. Please note, I have only given sites with a ranking and Alexa only give statistics for sites which have separate URLs, which means some sites are not listed. This affects several on Scienceblogs.com.
The list was correct as of 15th December. If I have missed any please feel free to add to comments.
**Slant: Where possible, I’ve used the description given with the link. However, where a description was not given, I’ve quickly looked to see. These could be wrong – if you spot any please add a comment.

Ranking Site Slant**
1 Watts Up With That? Sceptic
2 Climate Depot Sceptic
3 Harmless Sky Sceptic
4 The GWPF Sceptic
5 Judith Curry Lukewarmer
6 Jo Nova Sceptic
7 Climate Audit Sceptic
8 Stephen Goddard Sceptic
9 Skeptical Science – John Cook Warmist
10 Bishop Hill Sceptic

Continue reading

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Off goes the submission to Parliament

After working on this pretty solidly for a week (with many false starts), I finally produced a pdf and tried to upload it as the man had told me on the phone. Apparently not … but luckily they accept open office.
How did I know it was ready? Simple law of diminishing returns … I started getting more mistakes every time I did a spelling check rather than less.
Here is the link to the Submission to the House of Commons Climate & Energy Committee investigation into the IPCC & AR5

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