They think it's all over! … It is now!

1.33C

That’s it!

Earlier this year, Nic Lewis and science writer Marcel Crok put forward a new estimate of the Earth’s climate sensitivity based on observational data, this figure has been confirmed by Professor Judith Curry and Lewis using the latest empirical data and a more sophisticated methodology which now makes it look even less likely that the substantially higher estimates based on computer simulations were correct.
That gives a predicted range of:-

1.05-1.8C

17-83% confidence limits
0.9C – 2.5C (5-95%)

That’s it?

It now looks unlikely that the 2C limit for “harm” from global warming will be exceeded. It’s all over!
Well no! Reading the abstract, we see they were: “Using 1859–1882 for the base period and 1995–2011 for the final period,”.
We know it warmed, otherwise a lot of academics wouldn’t have shat their pants as they raced to tell us all how much money they should get to “study the problem”.
But there’s a big problem. The null hypothesis is that the warming we saw in the 20th century century is natural. In effect all these climate sensitivities estimate is “how much warming occurred over ‘normal'”. The result, in a century when we know there has been warming is that they will always find a positive warming effect even if CO2 had no affect whatsoever on the climate.
To go back to the football analogy, it is as if we were only allowed to assess the English football team by the appalling performance in the last world cup. Whatever statistics you use, whatever tests you perform, if you only take data which you already know shows the English team is useless, then it is very difficult to show they could win the world cup.
In contrast, if you only show England winning the world cup in 1966 (where the title quote comes from), then it is hard to have a realistic view of their chances of winning the next world cup. So, just as England’s performance cannot be judged on one world cup, so climate sensitivity must not be judged from its value during the single period where it was perceived to have been warming or cooling exceptionally.
So, whilst, this is a better stab than most other estimates, it still fails to account for the general stability of the world climate over the last 3-4 ice-age cycles which clearly show that the climate sensitivity in a warm period has very strong negative feedbacks strongly suggesting that the real climate sensitivity is well below 1C.

It’s all over for the global warming scam

So, whilst this latest figure is by no means the end of the story, there’s now little chance of this figure of climate sensitivity rising above 2C. 2C is the lowest figure that even the climate zealots could justify as the limit to beneficial warming. So, anything less that 2C is undoubtedly good for humanity.

There is now no justification at all for any of the idiotic and almost entirely useless climate policies.

It’s all over now.

It’s all over now.

It’s all over now.

It’s all over now.

It’s all over now.

It’s all over now.

It’s all over now.

Posted in Fails | 7 Comments

Why Mann must be stopped

Doing things outside climate for a while has given me a new perspective. So it was interesting reading the post on Bishop Hill. I’ve never doubted that Steyn would win in a fair courtroom. And when I saw the appalling lies from Mann’s submissions to the court it seemed Steyn would win in even a wholly biased court. Continue reading

Posted in Academia, Fails | 9 Comments

BBC bias – now it's Scottish nationalist alarmists complaining

If you haven’t been living in outer Mongolia away from any modern media, you will probably already know that the BBC are completely biased on climate. True they’ve stopped reporting global warming alarmism recently, but that is because they’ve all but stopped reporting the climate since Richard Black left.
However, if you don’t live in Scotland, you may not know that the Scottish government are also completely biased on climate to the extent you are treated as a non-person in Scotland if you are a climate sceptic. My SNP MSP refuses to deal with me on constituency matters. And yes, I did try to raise the issue of BBC bias with my SNP MSP by email – and that was probably one of the reasons she refused to meet me on constituency issues.
But now …

YES supporters have held a demonstration outside BBC Scotland’s headquarters in what they said was a protest over the broadcaster’s coverage of the referendum.
They marched from the city centre to the BBC’s Pacific Quay offices in Glasgow, claiming the BBC’s reporting has been“biased” against independence. (Scotsman)

Continue reading

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English tourists ‘cancelling holidays to Scotland’ due to "ill feeling"

SCOTTISH holiday companies have been faced with cancellations from English tourists worried that there may be “ill feeling” towards them after the referendum – no matter what the result.
Companies providing holiday accommodation north of the border say dozens of holidaymakers have contacted them saying that they do not want to holiday in a country where the national feeling is one of division.
They say other English travellers have also cancelled planned breaks because they say they no longer want to support Scotland if it becomes independent.
“We have had numerous phone calls from customers stating that if we do become independent then they will no longer we willing to support Scotland and won’t be returning for a holiday,” said Amber Swinton, property manager at a company which markets holiday cottages across Scotland. “But of more concern is that people are cancelling holidays they had booked for next year irrelevant of the outcome of the vote.”
Read more: The Scotsman

Posted in Politics, Scotland | 6 Comments

The nasty side of Scotland revealed.


For a country the size of Scotland (5million) it may surprise people to know just how many high profile climate sceptics there are: Lord Monckton, Andrew Montford of  Bishop Hill and myself.
Why?
Scotland likes to portray itself as being a the country of Auld Lang Syne, bannocks and Haggis. But the reality is very different. The reality is a country full of sectarian strife, or intolerance of other views and where outlandish views such as global warming alarmism are so universally endorsed by the political elite that e.g. not a single one of our MSPs voted for the climate legislation let alone scrutinised it in any detail.
That is the kind of attitude that drives sane sensible scientifically pragmatic people like me Andrew Montford and Lord Monckton to have to make a stand.
But we live in  a country, where e.g. my MSP refuses (Fiona McLeod) even to meet with me on constituency issues because I support the science on climate such as the fact it has not warmed and the climate modellers did not forecast it. That however, is beyond the pale in Scotland. We aren’t allowed to express such views.
And to prevent us expressing those views, government ministers and civil servants break their own rules to exclude us. So, when I ran SCEF I repeatedly asked for meetings with a minister. The official rule book says that ministers would ordinarily assent to such requests. However the reality is that any emails were dealt with by curt unhelpful replies with no prospect of meeting anyone let alone a minister.
The Darker side is now coming out for everyone to see
But now Scotland is showing an even darker side to its intolerance. According to the Scotsman Jack McConnell (the former Labour first minister) has criticised Police Scotland for their “shocking” lack of effort at preventing intimidation tactics during the referendum campaign. He said incidents of violence, vandalism and intimidation could have been prevented had the force made itself more visible.
Lord McConnell insisted he was not pointing the finger at any one group, but Better Together supporters have complained about stone-throwing, being called traitors and facing threats that their houses will be torched. And some No voters are said to be too scared to show open support for fear of reprisals.
Lord McConnell said yesterday: “The level of shouting-down at public meetings, people’s cars and houses being threatened and aggression in town centres and public places was preventable.
“I’m shocked that there hasn’t been more of a conscious effort by Police Scotland.
“More presence at the weekends, at public meets and one or two symbolic arrests of people would have set the right tone early on.
“I’m not picking sides, the evidence of these incidents is too strong and more should have been done to stop it.
“I think they have been surprisingly absent and I think they need to tell us why.”
Lord McConnell also criticised the force on Twitter, writing: “There is something very strange about the absence of Police Scotland intervention to stop referendum related vandalism and intimidation.”
Still Game actor Greg Hemphill backed his claims, adding: “Most of it has been surreptitious, hasn’t it? The wrecking of a sign under cover of night.”
To which Lord McConnell responded: “Posters least important. Cars vandalised, windows broken, people attacked in shopping centres.”
He then claimed if England or Wales were to be experiencing a referendum that Police would be facing a public hearing over a failure to do their job.
“If this was England & Wales Keith_Vaz MP would be calling policescotland in for a public hearing. Over to you Christine Grahame MSP,” added McConnell.
Lord McConnell’s accusations come as tensions between campaigners reaches boiling point.
Labour leader Ed Miliband was forced to abandon a visit to an Edinburgh shopping centre after he was surrounded by Yes supporters who jostled him and branded him a ‘****ing liar’.
His minders were forced to step in to escort him to safety.
Hundreds of campaign boards and banners have been smashed up, covered with offensive graffiti or destroyed.
Cars with Yes or No stickers in their windows have been targeted by vandals, along with shops sprayed with referendum graffitti.
Colin McClean from East Kilbride said: “ I’m scared to put a NO sticker on the car incase it gets vandalised. Realistic chance of it.”
Whereas student James Todd said: “And I don’t put a yes on mine for same reason. Stop pretending its one sided.”
Homes with ‘No Thanks’ posters have been pelted with eggs and one householder in Edinburgh had ‘coward’ etched into his front door.
Farmers have received anonymous phone calls saying their livestock will be set loose unless they take down campaign boards.
Last week, a ‘Yes’ campaign shop in the Capital was vandalised with swastikas and slogans reading ‘no thanks’ and ‘Nazis’.
Yes signs in a garden in Kirriemuir, Angus were smashed and the incident was reported to police.
Meanwhile, signs backing the ‘No Thanks’ campaign appeared to have been targeted by vandals by the A92 between Dundee and Arbroath.
Police Scotland Assistant Chief Constable Bernard Higgins said: “The referendum is a significant event which is expected to attract a higher than normal turnout.
“Policing arrangements for the referendum are well in hand and will be appropriate and proportionate. Police Scotland’s priority is to ensure public safety and security.
“We will respond appropriately to any issues which arise. We will not offer comment on the numbers of officers or their specific operational deployment.”
Now threats of violence after the polls
Unfortunately, the threats of violence will not stop with the voting.

Cops are warning the night could potentially spark one of the biggest outbreak of violence in the country’s history.
One officer said: “Bars are going to be open all the way through to Friday morning.
“It’s absolute madness. Tempers are already running high. This is a bad, bad idea.”
The biggest risk is likely to be in highly populated areas like Edinburgh and Glasgow. Mirror

Whatever way the vote goes tomorrow, having tried for years to work with the Scottish political system, I know that there is little chance of achieving anything from within Scotland. And whilst a No vote may see recriminations against No voters, I think a yes vote will be far worse, because the brownshirts will see themselves as having been vindicated and given the green light to carry on their campaign of intimidation.
And remembering this is all driven by Nationalism, there really is a strong hint of Nazi Germany in Scotland right now.


Addendum
To ensure scrupulous fairness. I am now aware of two instances involving Yes campaigners.

  1. Dog dirt was smeared on the door handle of a yes campaign office
  2. three people are believed to have been injured following a bust-up over the referendum debate outside Hearts football club

I condemn these instances and of course any no campaigner who was involved should be reported to police and hopefully at least one side will be free of this kind of behaviour.
 
 

Posted in Politics, Scotland | Comments Off on The nasty side of Scotland revealed.

uClimate Problems now hopefully resolved.

If you’ve been seeing thousands of Bishop Hill articles appearing here – no there hasn’t been a sudden rush of activity but a small error in a single line of code. Continue reading

Posted in General | 2 Comments

Jokers set up fake Scotland-England border control

The checkpoint at Carter Bar, near Jedburgh. Picture: Jon Parker Lee

The checkpoint at Carter Bar, near Jedburgh. Picture: Jon Parker Lee


SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE: Three days before one of the biggest events in Scottish history a group of pranksters have decided to inject a little light-hearted humour into proceedings by setting up a border control post. (Scotsman)
Giving the gag an authentic look, the jokers erected a barrier and donned high visibility jackets, making the spoof checkpoint look legitimate to anyone approaching in a car. They even included a sign which read ‘Opens 19 Sept 2014’, a reference to the day after the referendum when the results will be announced.

Great!

 But the sad thing is that it could well be a reality within a very short time if Scotland votes for separation and if as looks likely we get a pro-immigration party. In that case, EWNI (England+) will have no choice but to create a border control.

Posted in Humour, Politics | 2 Comments

This is why Scots will not be voting yes!

Yes Vandalism
Intimidation, violence and repression of any dissent – it sounds like some Nazi dictator. This however is the reality of the Scottish “independence” campaign. We haven’t yet got to Brown shirts roaming the street beating up anyone who disagrees with them, but as the article shows below, we are almost there. There are numerous reports of people intending to vote “no”, who are too afraid to say so in public for fear of what the yes camp will do. And there have been many accounts of violence. I cannot myself vouched for the authenticity of the story of a woman in a pub who was asked which way she would vote and when she said “No” was told “wrong answer” and punched, however the story rings true.
And yes, there is always violence – but in any other election the leaders have got together to condemn it and stopped it in the bud. But not this time. It just seems to get worse and worse and … well who knows what will happen after a “no” vote.
And you don’t just have to take my word for it. Here is a piece from the Dundee Courier, a paper which as far as I know has is not biased either way: Continue reading

Posted in Politics, Scotland | 3 Comments

In praise of Sceptics

I was reading a piece in the New York Post, Leo vs. science: vanishing evidence for climate change in which it highlighted the poor science in Leo DiCaprio’s campaign to persuade the world of the “carbon monster”, when I read this:

DiCaprio is an actor, not a scientist; it’s no real surprise that his film is sensationalistic and error-riddled. Other climate-change fantasists, who do have a scientific background, have far less excuse.

And yes! Isn’t it great being a sceptic. As we all know by now sceptics are almost all well trained engineers and scientists. Very experienced, very knowledgeable, well versed with the realities of: “in theory it works … but in practice it doesn’t”.
So, yes, when some actor who really hasn’t a clue about what they are talking about stands up, you’ve got to feel sorry for them. They just aren’t sceptics. They haven’t had our training our experience our cautious careful analytical approach that means we more often than not are right. (That’s being modest – particularly with people like Steve McIntyre!)
And now I’m researching outside climate again, I am beginning to see how the skills we sceptics have are so transferable and how the “sceptic” or perhaps “engineering” method of careful rigorous analysis pays dividends in all kinds of areas.
Sceptics are the unsung heroes of society and far too few of us blow our own trumpets because we are the engineers, the scientists you can trust. We are the accountants. We are really the backbone of society.
However, let’s not be too arrogant. A body is not all backbone and if the world were full of sceptics, imagine a world where the only TV were thoroughly researched documentaries full of caveats and statements of how little is actually known!!
Imagine Steve McIntyre and Anthony Watts in tight hose playing Hamlet.

To be or not to be that is the question?

Would be about as far as the play got before we started a detailed discourse about the evidence packed full of graphs explaining how this was not the question.
However, then again, imagine a world built by actors and academics. Bridges that are delights to the eye perfect examples of the latest research ideas – which cost a fortune, fail to do the basic job intended, and are so impossible to maintain, that they rust to pieces and fall down in a few years.

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The global warming rout

From the very first headline: “There Are Now 52 Explanations For The Pause In Global Warming” (Daily Caller), it was obvious that things are not going the zealot’s way. A quick scan now shows that the biggest story in the press is now  “the pause” replacing the quintessential “scientists say lesser spotted goat-toad threatened by global warming”, which used to feature heavily and is now entirely absent (today).
But the biggest change is the tone. Gone is the “great scientific authorities say”. Instead the news is now a confusing mismash of messages from which the public will take the message that “warming causes more snow” that there are only 52 excuses for the pause (which some still deny is happening) and that Paul Nurse is just a zealot trying to convince the world it is warming faster than ever. Continue reading

Posted in Academia, Fails, Goat Toads | 2 Comments