2016 will undoubtedly be the crunch year for “global warming” – undoubtedly the biggest scam in the whole of history – pushed relentlessly by academia and the public sector against the interest of the western economies.
The satellites are the only credible measure of global temperature (the surface data being nothing short of fraudulent with so many different warming adjustments only a liar or an idiot would use it). And up until the start of the peak of the El Nino induced warming the satellites continued to show no warming for 18 years. That is 0.6C of warming PREDICTED by the climate extremists of the IPCC that did not happen.
Not only do the eco-extremists need this El Nino warming – but also after the El Nino, they need the temperature to continue upwards. It is already tittering of the brink – they are desperate to stop us saying 18 (soon 19,20) years without warming. If for a few months they silence us – the disappointment when it returns to cooling will surely be the end.
In contrast, the sane sensible people of this world, know there is a correlation between solar activity and temperature, that there might be a 60 year cycle peaking in 2010, thus explaining the small real warming from 1970-2000 (as opposed to the fabricated warming added to the surface data). And as a consequence, it is more likely than not (because what we know about the climate is much less than what goes one) to see cooling, not only straight after the El Nino peak, but for the next few decades.
So … here are the scenarios
1. Warming continues after El Nino (very unlikely)
This is the only scenario permitted by the Global Warming religion. However, because sceptics know we don’t know much about the climate, we can’t dismiss further natural warming as a possibility – albeit less likely than cooling.
2. Ambiguous “pause” (trend <0.05C/decade)
If the temperatures return back to the pre-El Nino level and continue the “pause” – albeit with a small warming trend, then the climate extremists will be shattered – their hopes dashed – as the pause lengths so that it will soon be the same length as the entire 1970-2000 “unprecedented” warming (the same warming occurred from 1910-1940 and there was far more warming in the Central England record from 1690-1730). However, the extremists – like all extremists will never admit defeat – and the anti-science eco-journos (like the BBC) will continue to pour their evil into the ears of the populace. Yes, the science will have disproven the global warming bullshit – but when you’ve got 1000x the funding of sceptics and lying cheating academics ready to churn out paper after paper … they don’t need science to maintain their belief.
3. The unambiguous pause (trend <0.0C/decade)
If however the temperatures return to a lower temperature than before the El Nino – then the game is up for these extremists. Cooling (of any kind) disproves their religion.OK – like all religions they will continue believing “the end is nigh” – but the sane sensible majority will stop listening.
However – the surface data will be continually upjusted to “prove” it is warming by the fraudsters. So, for real scientists – the pause will be unequivocal – but to the fraudsters, liars and gullibles who follow the religion – the fact we are not seeing warming (nor any other trends like extreme weather, floods, droughts) as they predicted will just be an inconvenient truth -easily explained away with fraudulent data and denier papers.
4. Unambiguous cooling (observable cooling)
When someone can produce a graph that most people will accept shows cooling, then the game will be completely up – even for the fraudsters. Unfortunately, because we know so little about what causes climate change, that could happen in as little as one year or as many as 100 years (or more). All we know is that cooling will occur and make the stupid episode of “man-made” warming look ridiculous. So, we can say with certainty that “history will not be kind to the climate extremists”, but we cannot say whether it will be us, our children, our grandchildren (or more) who will be reading that history.
So, within this scenario are several sub-scenarios to do with timing:
4i – warming then cooling (within a generation)
4ii – warming then cooling (over more than a generation)
4iii – cooling (within a generation – then warming/cooling/warming etc.)
4iv – cooling (over a period greater than a generation)
I’ve not put a scale on these – because they will be judgemental. There is always warming and cooling in the climate – that has not changed – it’s just every so often the climate variabilities add together to create an apparent trend over a decade or more. So, the key will be when the general populace accept the warming trend has turned into cooling.
The best possible scenario for us sceptics, would be for the globe to show a sustained cooling trend for the next couple of decades (although not necessarily the best option for humanity as it will undoubtedly increase human misery and death). If that happens, then within my (expected) lifetime, I will be celebrating the collapse of global warming, the idiots who pushed it in academia, the BBC and e.g. “Royal” society.
That in itself might trigger a broader social revolution!
However,the real nature of natural variation as seen in the climate (I have just realised) is that ambiguity rules (so this is almost an addendum). Unlike “scientific” (or white noise), which has no trends, cycles etc., the problem with real (1/f) noise is that it is full of apparent trends, cycles and steps. And as such – perhaps I should start calling it “ambiguous noise”. That is to say, 1/f noise, is noise that appears to have a signal – but does not. It appears to have trends – but does not. It appears to have “meaning” but does not.