I thought I would set myself a challenge: how much did academics get right about the climate. I probably missed a few things, but the answer is “not much”.
I’m going to ignore the stupid academic argument that climate is any period longer than their retirement date (so no chance of being proved wrong) and instead use the pragmatic definition that “climatology” is the subject of understanding the behaviour of the atmosphere over periods significantly greater than the yearly seasonal cycle.
So what did those studying this area actually get right? When I checked what was predicted against what actually happened, the only claims with any credibility were:
- A rise in CO2
- Some melting of Greenland (but I’ve since seen evidence to doubt that one)
- A rise in rainfall (again I’m not certain about this as I recall that when I last checked there was no trend)
- Sea level rise (not as a result of late-twentieth century warming, but because there has been a steady underlying rise)
But what about the theoretical basis? Can any theories about the climate be said to have been proven largely correct or even generally accepted?
- Natural variation – correct! (but as most academics publicly strenuously deny natural climate change, it’s hardly a point in their favour).
- CO2 warming – I am convinced that theoretically rising CO2 should lead to higher temperatures, but I have yet to see ANY evidence proving this theoretical connection (but see below).
- Greenhouse warming – I have yet to see any description of greenhouse warming from academics that fits the actual physics. That is not to say that the academics don’t understand the greenhouse effect, just that I’ve yet to see proof they do understand how the greenhouse effect really works (and usually when I start thinking this way I find they don’t know!). As such, given the clear lack of understanding of academia and the clear complexity of the climate, I would need to see firm evidence of the effect of CO2 before I could say for certain that it actually causes any warming let alone significant warming.
- Ice-ages … there is no real understanding of the ice-age cycle.
- Changes of CO2 & temperature over 100s of millions of years. A few: oxygen from photo-synthesis & “rusting of the planet”. Perhaps the link between CO2 levels and plant evolution (probably disputed).
- Geological Carbon cycle – disputed
- Geological nitrogen cycle – I’ve never heard any suggestions
- Thermal expansion of the crust (Caterpillar theory) – denied and/or ignored.
- PDO, Atlantic Multi-decadel, El Nino … some understanding of what symptoms appear, but I’ve yet to see any understanding of why they occur or their role in the climate.
- Solar activity – probably one of the biggest breakthroughs in our understanding of the climate and in science in general is the understanding of how solar activity could affect the climate. Those involved deserve noble prizes – denied because it did not fit the eco-politics of academia.
- Greening of the sahara – not understood
- Urban heating from cutting down plant growth (either not understood or intentionally hidden)
- The role of particulates and e.g. how reducing atmospheric pollution could have been partly responsible for the increase in temperatures after the 1970s clean air acts (either not understood or intentionally hidden)
- The role of volcanoes in cooling the climate (accepted, but lacking credibility when human emissions are then denied as a reason the climate was cooler in the 1970s)
- That the sun keeps us warm (I was getting desperate) and that our temperature is affected by our distance to the sun.
- Moon? (Again I’m tugging at straws – as I’ve nothing much to say about the moon and climate.)

Re “Moon? ” perhaps you should read some of the articles on this site.
http://clivebest.com/blog/
Interesting!
“Solar activity – probably one of the biggest breakthroughs in our understanding of the climate and in science in general is the understanding of how solar activity could affect the climate. Those involved deserve noble prizes – denied because it did not fit the eco-politics of academia”
Did you have this in mind?
http://joannenova.com.au/2015/01/is-the-sun-driving-ozone-and-changing-the-climate/
I was thinking about Svensberg and the CERN experiment. They are real scientists doing real science which has massively moved forward our knowledge.
On your own theory – it is without doubt commendable – it’s the kind of thing I’d expect to be discussed if climate wasn’t a cesspit of political carp. And yes well worth pursuing – but as in all science, the proof is whether it can predict what happens.
Neither theory is proven at present and both would have similar predictive ability. I have certain reservations as to how cosmic rays could cause latutudinal climate zone shifting and changes in jet stream behaviour.
It will be interesting to see how it all pans out.
We both know that if they had been given the funding they rightly deserve as first rate scientists then they’d already have the Nobel prize. (very likely – as I agree nothing’s certain)
The jet stream is interesting … but what is more fascinating for me, is that whereas a few years ago I was thinking that the sceptics were struggling to with the science, I’m now thinking that it is the academics (mostly alarmists) who are struggling.
Indeed, it’s almost starting to look as if the main role of academics (Phil Jones, Mann, et al) is going to be collating data so that the “experts” on the internet can work out what is going on.
“the “experts” on the internet can work out what is going on”
Exactly so 🙂
Interestingly, the issues now coming to the fore are the ones raised by me in my earliest articles.
I had a sound grip on the mass induced greenhouse effect here:
http://www.newclimatemodel.com/greenhouse-confusion-resolved/
the role of ocean oscillations here:
http://www.newclimatemodel.com/the-real-link-between-solar-energy-ocean-cycles-and-global-temperature/
The importance of solar variability here:
http://www.newclimatemodel.com/the-death-blow-to-anthropogenic-global-warming/
the role of latitudinal climate zone and jet stream changes here:
http://www.newclimatemodel.com/weather-is-the-key-after-all/
and so on.
The mainstream and the sceptics are following my lead but they don’t yet realise it.