Scottish Sceptic

A while back I tried to find out what model of natural variation was included in the climate models. After searching and finding no formal definition of their model of “natural variation” I finally worked out that “variation” in the world of climate modelling means one of two things

1. Instrumentation noise – which they assume can be eliminated by averaging (false for long term 1/f type noise)
2. “ensemble forecasting”. What this means is that the initial conditions are slightly perturbed and then these new initial conditions are fed into the model to produce a new result. And e.g. if 70% of the predictions indicate rain, then this is taken as meaning that there is a 70% chance of rain.

The first is assumed to be external to the climate – derived only by imperfect measurement. The second is the only form of randomness I could see included in the climate models. However, this model of initial variability for the models is fundamentally wrong and it gets worse with longer and longer forecasts. The technical reason is because the “noise energy” as I like to refer to it or perhaps others might prefer “degrees of freedom” has a finite life within the model and eventually the main factor influencing the outcome is the quirks of the model. Continue reading →

I am sick to death with seeing blatant fraud in the global temperature figure as constantly revealed by Real Science. What is more, from my experience, when an organisation is so blatant with its dishonesty, there will be far far more to discover.

The only consolation is that no one except the extremely gullible is now fooled by these graphs.

For reasons which are fairly obvious,  I’ve finally managed to get myself banned from the Guardian for speaking the truth about the evils of Climate extremism. Clearly the Guardian “doesn’t like it up em” and their hypocrisy of free speech is all the more galling because all I was doing was keeping on reminding them about the 18 years pause.
But banning me is a completely futile gesture, because we sceptics are now so many in number that within an hour of publishing an article on the failure of the Dead parrot Talks in Paris, the comments were being flooded by gleeful sceptics, delighted at the news – so much so that they closed comments entirely. So much for free speech!
But what is more sickening than climate extremists like Hollande using the deaths of illegal immigrants to push their sicking politics – good riddance!
I’ve copy and pasted the comments, because the Guardian will more than likely “magic” them away.

Continue reading →

Unlike a newspaper, a blogger need only write an article when there’s something to say. And there has literally been nothing worth commenting on (that hasn’t already been covered by other sceptics) for weeks if not months. Traditionally global warming does take a brake in the summer (as eco-fascist journalists go for their yearly jaunt flying in air-planes, 4x4s and consuming a planet load of fuel to reach their exotic destinations where they then sit around moaning about us sceptics not condoning their hypocrisy). So, there will be a rise in the number of news stories in the next few weeks, but given the current sparsity of stories and the appalling dross of those that do appear, they will struggle to keep me awake.
In the UK, there have been a few stories attempting to link immigration to climate. These must be dreamt up by journalists in their tropical retreats as they swelter in the sun dreaming on getting back to cold wet England.
In the US, Obama continues his comedy tour … all the funnier because some people don’t yet get the joke.
India is starting to become global warming obsesses and so reminds me of those 70s sitcoms with Indian immigrants trying far too hard to be British … and ending up being a parody of outdated ideas.
The Australian media are now behaving like a spoilt child whose been told to shut up by their politicians.
China is now realising that destroying the western economy wasn’t such a good idea when it was the west which bought so many of its goods.
And back in Scotland, the SNP are now embroiled in a corruption scandal – birdmincers are now less welcome that English Tories and and appallingly cold and wet summer means no one is at all interested in Global warming (unless someone can promise us it means a few warmer days).
Peak Birdmincer
However, the next milestone is this: when the total power from birdmincers peak. With older machines now at the end of their economic lifetime, even a slowdown in installations could lead to peak birdmincer as more machines break down than are installed. Also as the amount of public money dolloped in the trough for the pigs to gorge on decreases, there just won’t be the same incentive to keep them mincing.

I’ve reblogged this from Real Science because Tony Heller has once again highlighted the blatant dishonesty by Obama & his Climate extremists. And this time the evidence of blatantly lying about the situation cannot be denied by anyone with any honesty and intelligence.

 
Obama is spreading all kinds of lies about Alaskan glaciers, which his own agencies knows are not true. Nothing is said or done to stop the liar in chief.
The USGS knows that Alaskan glaciers retreated much faster in the 19th century.

glacierbaymap.gif (420×458)

Continue reading →

Any sceptic knows the non-sense about conspiracy ideation from the links of Lewandowsky and other climate extremists. As someone who is actually qualified in this area through my MBA I am very sure this shows a lack of understanding of how real organisations behave, both in theory and practice. In contrast, sceptics seem to intuitively understand the complexity of organisations and have little problem separating the behaviour of the whole group from that of individuals. But climate extremists appear to be incapable of seeing the individuals within an organisation as separate identities to the whole organisations, which I think makes them extremely gullible as to how organisations actually function. Continue reading →

According to an article – itself reporting on the Guardian – an Eu dictator has declared that “Paris is final”. The Dead parrot talks are …well … the end. There is no plan B. When they fail, they fail for good. The parrot will be no one, it has gone to meet its maker. It is deceased.
What is most laughable is that he believes such an empty threat will have any other effect than to make the people of the world all the more keen to see these dead parrot talks fail.

Oh dear, oh dear! Anthers has blown a gasket over the Sun article. He starts:

The Sun appears to have some kind of competition called The Great British Sound Off which aims to find a great Sun columnist. One of the finalists is a 19 year old called George Harrison who’s piece is called give climate hotheads the (ice) cold shoulder …

He ends:

… about 15 minutes and is pretty much all I can be bothered doing. It wasn’t hard, but maybe simply making stuff up is easier than actually doing some background research

Which is a very apt appraisal of global warming research!
Anthers: a little bit of background research
Even for his blog, the comments on the article are boring. But two were notable. There is the disgusting vitriol:

I could never have imagined it back when I was a student and the Sun was a pariah newspaper, but today I cried over this Sun Article.
I’ve been a full time unpaid climate sceptic since around 2007 when I first realised that the science was totally distorted and the public were being told lies about the climate.
When I started I was naive enough to think that a few months campaigning would be enough to highlight the lack of scientific integrity.
For more than 8 years I have endured vitriol and hatred of not just idiots on line but idiots in government like Chris Hume. But despite the huge personal cost I carried on. Because at first there were so few of us sceptics and so I knew that each of us counted and it had to be done. 8 years later I already knew from the overwhelming support for the sceptic view online that we had won. I was confident of victory and it was only a matter of time before the scientific illiterate politicians running our country finally realised they had been conned. So I didn’t expect my reaction today.
All that time & effort I have put in. Those two keyboards I have worn bare engaging in online forums. That time running blogs, writing to (useless) politicians. I now know it has not been in vain
thank you Sun.
Mike Haseler, BSc. MBA
(unemployed)

I have a commeter named Cedric, who appears to see the whole world as one big conspiracy to conspire and keeps talking about Vax machines – which I don’t think is fair on the Vax machines as they were good in their day.
However, I thought if Cedric had the chance to put his thoughts down in one article he might be able to make more sense than he has hitherto. However, this is what he sent me: