Judith Curry: Natural variability – does she get it?

I finally got around to reading the great article in the Spectator about Judith Curry:

‘I was tossed out of the tribe’: climate scientist Judith Curry interviewed

Which is interesting, because she’s starting to understand the “boundary problem” of academia which rejects anything it doesn’t like as “outsiders” and should any “outsider” dare to propose anything scientific, the response is to attack them as “pseudo-science” and “science deniers”.
However, far more important is this phrase:

Any such projection is meaningless, unless it accounts for natural variability and gives a value for ‘climate sensitivity’ —i.e., how much hotter the world will get if the level of CO2 doubles.

As I wrote in Formal concepts of noise within Science climate science lacks any concept of “natural variation”. The consequence, is that it assumes the climate is driven by “external forcings” – and then it divides up any changes between those “drivers”. And because CO2 is a conveniently increasing “driver” that starts being recorded in 1958 -leaving only a decade of “global cooling” to be explained – and alongside temperatures till 1998 – it was very easy to assign the total temperature rise to CO2. (By using a scaling factor increasing the predicted warming from CO2 on its own of 0.6-1.2C** by fabricating “mythical” feedbacks to raise the CO2 warming as high as 5.8C.
Thus by (falsely) asserting that there was no natural variation – and therefore there was nothing else could have caused the change – by ignoring the patently obvious changes in the historical record of CET that proved natural variation has always been present – by picking just a few select “drivers” that were then the only things allowed to explain the (naturally varying) global temperature – ignoring the fact the curves did not fit, and that there was one almighty pause from 1998 when temperatures did not rise but CO2 levels did – the alarmists (falsely) justified up to 5x increase in the expected warming from CO2 from around 1C up to 5.8C.
That was not just unscientific, it was criminally fraudulent – as this fabrication of a link  was intentionally hidden from the gullible politicians so that they were wholly misled about the validity of this scaling resulting in fraudulent predictions.

Natural Variability explains all the 20th century climate change

The simple fact as I demonstrated in Proof: recent temperature trends are not abnormal is that we expected climate to vary as it did in the 20th century. So, far from seeing anything abnormal, what we saw was the normal natural changes that have occurred in the earth’s climate for billions of years and will continue to occur for billions of years and nothing any of us do can change that.
And once we accept that simple provable fact, that all the 20th century change can be explained by natural variation – there is absolutely no need to invent bogus mythical feedbacks to scale up the supposed effect of CO2 from 0.6C (latest Hitran calcs) or 1.2C ** to up to 5.8C warming as they did. Instead, the best we can say is that “CO2 is expected to cause some warming – but the scale of that warming is less than natural variation – so we cannot attribute previous warming, nor can we predict any more warming than around 0.6-1.2**C in the next century
 
**The 1.2C figure is that still used by the IPCC, but it is way out of date & now arguably fraudulent because calculations by Hermann Harde using the later versions of the HITRAN database give a much lower figure. This smells of fraud – because there appears to be no reason why an older figure would be used except that it gives a higher figure of warming.

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Beginning of glaciers and the next ice-age? Rapidly increasing permanent Scottish snow

Earlier this year, following a few colder years in Scotland I wrote: “What should define the start of the next ice-age?” to which I suggested “the first year in which ice remains continuously on the Scottish mountains.” I must have been more misled by the notorious UEA (of Climategate) lie that “Children won’t know what snow is” as I had assumed that permanent snow did not occur in Scotland. And I was partly right, because in 2003 & 2006 there was no permanent snow. But as the graph below shows, permanent snow is now increasing rapidly:


Which – should those predicting a catastrophic drop in solar activity leading to cold be right:

And if my own findings re the previous sudden & massive drop in global temperatures some 8-12,000 years after the interglacial starts (we are now 10,000 years in) is right, if as well the North Atlantic Oscillation is going to start causing cooling leading to additional cooling in the next 20 years then it may well be that 2006 was literally the beginning of the next “ice-age”.

Am I being serious?

I’d like to put in some massive caveat: “of course I don’t think it will happen”. However, we are now seeing things on the one-year, decadal, century and millennium that all indicate that (within those time bands) we have or will see cooling. I’d like to say the above video has blown the issue out of all proportion and moderate cooling may come, but now nearly as bad as they suggest. But most of all, I’d like to point to credible climate data from honest organisations – not ones from those acting fraudulently fabricating warming adjustments so that no one at all knows whether we are currently seeing cooling.
So seriously – I haven’t a clue what it means except it is another nail in the coffin of the “global warming” fraud, and hopefully when the dust is settled – when we finally have credible climate data we can trust – we might then know whether or not there’s anything at all to be concerned about.

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Naomi Klein says Paris Summit "turning into a farce"

Has Naomi finally learnt a bit of science and come around to the sceptic view? Sadly the answer is no.
Instead, it’s not the farce of a conference being held to stop global warming – after 18 years without any of that warming according to the only reliable global temperature (corroborated by growing Antarctic, global sea ice and Surface Greenland ice). Instead the farce she is protesting are 24 completely imbecilic and frankly dangerously suicidal climate extremists. Who are so crazy, they just don’t have the mental capacity or empathy to understand that if the Paris police are already over-stretched are organising the protection of 10-40,000 visitors at a time of war (some 200 events have been cancelled), then they simply do not have the man-power to baby sitting these morons.
But no! Naomi Klein would rather the French Police were forced to shut down #COP21 (which I would be more than happy to see) than that her climate extremist friends were prevented from endangering their own, their gullible friends and worst of all the French Police and public’s safety by staging a totally pointless & illegal protest.
Source in the Guardian – but as they are another bunch of dangerous Climate extremists I’m not linking to them.

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Tim Yeo former chair UK Climate Change Committee being investigated for Perjury

After Yeo, former Chairman of the UK climate change committee, was caught in a sting operation selling himself to greens, the judge described his evidence as “implausible”, “unreliable”, “not honest”,”dishonest”, “untruthful”, “untrue” and “unworthy of belief”. Bishop Hill – he is now being investigated for perjury
As a result of so many current scandal stories, my original list “Current Scandals” has been somewhat buried.
So I’ve created a new page on the menu: Current Scandals

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Polar bears are doing fine

Like everything in Climate, polar bear numbers are another area of corrupt data which are turned into flagrant lies by the on-line eco-fascists.
crockford-official-polar-bear-numbers-to-2015_iucn-concurrs-nov-18Above is the official polar bear estimate from 1981 to date (See PolarBearScience for more details). As you can see, the population is currently at the highest on record.
So, how has this news been reported?

Nothing

The climate corruption continues! The Media are fed story after story using graphs drawn from the population peak downwards, but they never get to see the real story of a growing Polar bear population.

The satellites showing no warming for 18 years and growing global polar ice do not suggest the ice is melting, but suppose it were, how would that affect polar bears? According to research Polar Bears’ Condition Unaffected by Reduced Summer Sea Ice.

So even the predictions of massive decline are corrupt.

Corruption, Corruption, Corruption

Like all areas of climate scam, we again see overt corruption of the data to try to falsely backup alarmism. This time, the “official” graph (below top) removes what it claims are “inaccurate” figures – but what the lower graph reveals is that these are not “inaccurate” so much as embarrassing figures which don’t support the corrupt propaganda:

For more details see http://polarbearscience.com/2014/02/18/graphing-polar-bear-population-estimates-over-time/

Upper graph uses totals reported in PBSG status tables, with min/max; Lower graph uses the same figures, but adds back in the so-called “inaccurate” estimates dropped 2005-2013. The 1960 figure * is a ballpark estimate
For more details see http://polarbearscience.com/2014/02/18/graphing-polar-bear-population-estimates-over-time/


 
 

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More garbage claims

According to the blog “Sunshinehours” estimates of the human plastic content in the oceans – much like the human contribution to climate – have been vastly overstated. It was estimated that there were some 1million tonnes. That’s 170g per member of human race. It now turns out that the real figure is closer to 7-35ktonne. That is 1-6g per person.
Read in detail: sunshine hours

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FRAUD FRAUD FRAUD FRAUD: NOAA & NASA concede claims of "warmest ever" were false.

Note: with so many articles now showing lies, corruption and fraud – I just don’t have the time to check them in detail – and yet another accusation of lying looks credible – but please read and decide yourself. 
When the notorious evil Lewandowsky wrote a paper in which he examined the way that when the public are told a lie, even if that lie is retracted, they tend to remember the lie, he started what is arguably the most evil and immoral episode of politics and science since the Nazi and their equivalent propaganda: “BIG LIES”.
Because not only has Lewandowsky embraced the “lie first” and retract it if necessary approach in his own work, but every climate alarmists is using the Lewanddowsky technique. For now we hear that even with their bogus warming adjustments, neither NOAA nor NASA, despite claiming 2014 was the warmest “evah”, did not manage to fabricate enough warming. Now from the reference frame we have:

 A direct proof that the professional alarmists are intentionally lying
As I discussed in detail, the surface temperature record significantly disagrees with the satellite datasets when it comes to the question whether 2014 was a warmest or near-warmest year.
Satellites answer this question with a clear “No”: 1998 was 0.3 °C warmer than 2014. This difference (decrease of temperature) is rather safely greater than their error margin which allows you to say that the global mean temperature as defined and calculated via the RSS methodology, for example, almost certainly didn’t peak in 2014. (If it did, it would be no big deal, anyway, but it did not.) The year 2014 was tied on the 6th and 7th place among the 36 according to the RSS AMSU satellite methodology, for example.
(See more: Reference Frame ; further comment Climate Depot)

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#NOAAgate: Lamar/Washington Post NOAA’s Reputation "shredded"

– – Thursday, November 26, 2015

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is the nation’s leading collector of climate data. Every day, NOAA analyzes vast amounts of data to predict changes to our climate, weather, oceans and coasts. The agency also publishes monthly temperature averages across the nation and compares those numbers to historical temperature records.
As the nation’s self-proclaimed authority on “environmental intelligence,” NOAA should be held to the highest scientific standards. This means their conclusions should be objective, independent of political consideration and based on all available sources of information.
…
Atmospheric satellite data, considered by many to be the most objective, has clearly showed no warming for the past two decades. This fact is well documented, but has been embarrassing for an administration determined to push through costly environmental regulations.
…
NOAA appears to pick and choose only data that confirms their bias. NOAA then disseminates this incomplete data to the media who manufacture alarming headlines but ignore the uncertainty of the conclusions.
…
The ability to remain independent of political consideration seems like a minimum requirement for an agency that should provide unbiased scientific information. But NOAA’s habit of picking and choosing data raises serious questions about the agency’s independence. In fact, it shreds NOAA’s credibility.
Source: Washington Post

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FRAUD FRAUD FRAUD – When will the police investigate these climate frauds?

Yet again, I wake up today to see another article “Massive Tampering With South African Temperatures“. And to put this in context, people are already in Jail for the UK LIBOR rate fixing scam. And as far as I can see, not only is this scam more widespread, but it’s been going on for much longer – so why is no one in jail?
Showing an original temperature doing this:
calraw_thumb
Has been turned into this:
caladj_thumb
So, this appears to be blatant fraud. And from the article: “Massive Tampering With South African Temperatures” it appears most if not all South African temperatures have been fraudulently changed this way. And these reports highlighting fraud in climate records are coming in regularly. Here’s just a selection of the latest articles:

But please note: these are only the frauds which show up using publicly available evidence. There is little doubt that if such fraud is being committed openly, then far more will be hidden where it cannot be seen. Climate is corrupt and it’s sickening that governments actively condone these criminals. Worse, now that governments are standing in line to receive money, there is no doubt that many will be “improving” their temperature stations to ensure their country is shown warming.
And it is clearly fraud, because none of this warming is appearing in the Satellites.

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Even eco-fascist Biased Broadcasting Company admit majority of world public against climate deal

No doubt the delusional Biased Broadcasting Company commissioned this hugely expensive poll at my expense (we have no choice but to pay for this political fifth columnist party in the UK) – with the intention of “proving” to world governments that everyone else was as mad as the BBC.
So, first, let’s recap the physical information: Satellites show no warming for 18 years, this is corroborated by increasing Antarctic ice , global sea ice which is normal and Greenland surface ice which has increased since 1990. There have been no increases in severe weather, droughts or floods. In contrast, both NASA and NOAA have been shown to be fabricating the far from global surface temperature measure.
So, on the one hand we have fraud, fabrication and  bogus surface temps, on the other we have overwhelming physical evidence that the world is not warming and the only nearly global measurement of temperature showing no warming.
So, only a totally delusional eco-nutter would even consider hugely expensive and usually counter productive measure recommended by fraudsters and scamsters.
But, no! This is the Biased Broadcasting Company:

Public support for a strong global deal on climate change has declined, according to a poll carried out in 20 countries.
All told an average of 42% of those polled want their government to play a leadership role in setting ambitious targets .. compared with 63% in 2009.

As the poll will undoubtedly have falsely stated the science (there is none supporting current warming) and it will undoubtedly have totally ignored the mega-huge cost, probably totally hundreds of thousands of pounds per person through out lifetime. There is absolutely no doubt that if the real state of science (none supporting) and the real cost were known, that the figure would be less 42% and nearer to 4.2% or even the most recent US figure of 97% who did not believe climate was a number one priority.

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