Global Warming for Dummies

First, “Global Warming” is not a scientific term, but instead is a false propaganda campaign trying to promote a scare about CO2. And as the Satellites show no current warming, Antarctic ice is growing, global sea ice is normal and Greenland surface ice has grown since 1990 – since there have been no adverse trends in extreme weather**, floods or droughts, there is nothing at all to suggest anything to be scared about. Indeed, rising CO2 is greening the planet and leading to record harvests.
**Hurricane activity has reduced – this may be statistical fluke, the most intense level of rain has increased – this is likely because modern equipment is able to read shorter rain spikes.

What is “Global Warming”

Let’s first try to define a sensible meaning for “Global warming”. According to the Central England Temperature record below, (the best proxy we have for global temperatures before widespread measurements), England experiences regular changes in climate with up to 1.5C in 40 years shown in the record (1690-1730). Also there are several 1C swings, both up and down over around 30 years. So, it is not uncommon to see 2-3C/cent rates of changes over any 30year period and 4C/century occurs around “once in 350 year”.

IrishFamines

Horizontal scale is in increments of 20years, Vertical in increments of 0.5C


From 1910-1940 and from 1970-200o the globe saw two periods of warming of 0.48C over 30 years. England experienced around 0.5C & 1C respectively (1.5 & 3C / century). Continue reading

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Inhofe: “The Greatest Hoax: How the Global Warming Conspiracy Threatens Your Future”

Whilst looking for news from the Climate Conference, I found this:

WND EXCLUSIVE

Inhofe gets hot scorching global-warming hoax

Now, his book, “The Greatest Hoax: How the Global Warming Conspiracy Threatens Your Future,” is more important than ever as President Obama and other world leaders plot to impose new regulations in the name of fighting “climate change.”
That political agenda is being pursued even though, as Inhofe predicted, the scientific consensus behind “global warming” is already collapsing, and the reality that “climate change” is simply an excuse to fuel the growth of government and the erosion of American sovereignty is now becoming increasingly clear.
Americans are over-regulated and over-taxed, he charges. When regulation escalates, the result is an increase in regulators. In other words, bigger government is required to enforce the greater degree of regulation. Bigger government means bigger budge
Read more at http://www.wnd.com/2015/11/inhofe-gets-hot-scorching-global-warming-hoax/#joPdDpqGuRMs61s8.99

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Cop21 press interest fades after first day

From the press coverage today, I would hardly know that there was any meeting on global warming, let alone one with most of the leaders of the world.
Indeed, I can’t find anything of any substance to report except Inhofe’s new book.

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Global Cooling starting in 2016

As we all known the alarmists were jumping up and down for joy at the prospect some global warming caused by the El Nino peek. So I have been interested to know when that peak occurred – and now it has!:
ElNinoSo, what did this “massive warming” effect have on the only credible & nearly global temperature from the satellites? If you look hard and use some imagination, I think the “effect” was that small upswing near the end which didn’t even bring it above the “bulk” of the noise. So really no warming at all!

Source source

Source source


And if you compare it with the 1998 El Nino they are like Chalk and cheese. This suggests this recent El Nino was very different. One possible explanation, is that the El Nino did have a profound warming effect – it’s just that we have already entered a period of cooling and that try as it might the El Nino could hardly offset the cooling.
As such, as we seem to be past the peak, within two years rather than “no warming for 18 years”,we may well be saying “the coldest global temperature in 20 years”. (But no doubt by then NASA and NOAA’s fabrications will show the planet is already being boiled like a cabbage).
But, I think it may be much worse than that. If we look below, NOAA got the ENSO prediction massive wrong. Almost everyone was predicting more warming (how familiar). But if I take the recent failure to predict the El Nino trend, and then this trend as well as assuming that NOAA continue being as wrong as they started, I’ve project it forward along the red line.
MidNovpredictionAnd now, just as rising index for El Nino was (supposedly) linked to warming, now the declining El Nino index suggests that pronounced cooling is likely to occur. Not by end of 2016 as NOAA suggest but as early as April 2017. In other words, there is a reasonable chance that April-June will start seeing headlines with a string of “coldest temperatures in >20 years” – or indeed “End of Global warming”!

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California’s Wind ‘Powered’ Dream Turns to Nightmare: Power Prices 40% Higher than US Average

The state of California has embarked on a 25-year green power odyssey in an effort to reduce the amount of CO2 we place into the atmosphere, all aimed at leading the world in an anti-climate change crusade for humanity.

Beginning in 2030, 50 percent of all electrical power produced for our regulated utilities will be mandated “renewable” energy. This definition under the current law includes energy from solar, wind and small hydroelectric facilities built, or to be built, over that time frame. It excludes residential solar installations and existing large hydroelectric projects such as energy produced from Hoover Dam.
While some of this new power will be “infill” development (smaller solar projects that may be placed in vacant or brown-field urban areas), most of it will be new development in areas of the state where sunshine and wind are most plentiful, our more remote inland desert regions including much of the Inland Empire.
Read more: Stop These Things

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Update to uClimate.com

ulogoTo coincide with #COP21, I’ve added a tweet button to uClimate.com (which includes the #cop21 hashtag). So please get tweeting.
I’ve also, taken the chance to undertake a few other changes which I’ve been planning to the layout of uClimate.com also hopefully to speed up the site as well as a new mobile version intended to make it easier to view on small screen devices.

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Video showing disgraceful Spread of birdmincers across Scotland


The people responsible should be locked up in jail.

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Judith Curry: Natural variability – does she get it?

I finally got around to reading the great article in the Spectator about Judith Curry:

‘I was tossed out of the tribe’: climate scientist Judith Curry interviewed

Which is interesting, because she’s starting to understand the “boundary problem” of academia which rejects anything it doesn’t like as “outsiders” and should any “outsider” dare to propose anything scientific, the response is to attack them as “pseudo-science” and “science deniers”.
However, far more important is this phrase:

Any such projection is meaningless, unless it accounts for natural variability and gives a value for ‘climate sensitivity’ —i.e., how much hotter the world will get if the level of CO2 doubles.

As I wrote in Formal concepts of noise within Science climate science lacks any concept of “natural variation”. The consequence, is that it assumes the climate is driven by “external forcings” – and then it divides up any changes between those “drivers”. And because CO2 is a conveniently increasing “driver” that starts being recorded in 1958 -leaving only a decade of “global cooling” to be explained – and alongside temperatures till 1998 – it was very easy to assign the total temperature rise to CO2. (By using a scaling factor increasing the predicted warming from CO2 on its own of 0.6-1.2C** by fabricating “mythical” feedbacks to raise the CO2 warming as high as 5.8C.
Thus by (falsely) asserting that there was no natural variation – and therefore there was nothing else could have caused the change – by ignoring the patently obvious changes in the historical record of CET that proved natural variation has always been present – by picking just a few select “drivers” that were then the only things allowed to explain the (naturally varying) global temperature – ignoring the fact the curves did not fit, and that there was one almighty pause from 1998 when temperatures did not rise but CO2 levels did – the alarmists (falsely) justified up to 5x increase in the expected warming from CO2 from around 1C up to 5.8C.
That was not just unscientific, it was criminally fraudulent – as this fabrication of a link  was intentionally hidden from the gullible politicians so that they were wholly misled about the validity of this scaling resulting in fraudulent predictions.

Natural Variability explains all the 20th century climate change

The simple fact as I demonstrated in Proof: recent temperature trends are not abnormal is that we expected climate to vary as it did in the 20th century. So, far from seeing anything abnormal, what we saw was the normal natural changes that have occurred in the earth’s climate for billions of years and will continue to occur for billions of years and nothing any of us do can change that.
And once we accept that simple provable fact, that all the 20th century change can be explained by natural variation – there is absolutely no need to invent bogus mythical feedbacks to scale up the supposed effect of CO2 from 0.6C (latest Hitran calcs) or 1.2C ** to up to 5.8C warming as they did. Instead, the best we can say is that “CO2 is expected to cause some warming – but the scale of that warming is less than natural variation – so we cannot attribute previous warming, nor can we predict any more warming than around 0.6-1.2**C in the next century
 
**The 1.2C figure is that still used by the IPCC, but it is way out of date & now arguably fraudulent because calculations by Hermann Harde using the later versions of the HITRAN database give a much lower figure. This smells of fraud – because there appears to be no reason why an older figure would be used except that it gives a higher figure of warming.

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Beginning of glaciers and the next ice-age? Rapidly increasing permanent Scottish snow

Earlier this year, following a few colder years in Scotland I wrote: “What should define the start of the next ice-age?” to which I suggested “the first year in which ice remains continuously on the Scottish mountains.” I must have been more misled by the notorious UEA (of Climategate) lie that “Children won’t know what snow is” as I had assumed that permanent snow did not occur in Scotland. And I was partly right, because in 2003 & 2006 there was no permanent snow. But as the graph below shows, permanent snow is now increasing rapidly:


Which – should those predicting a catastrophic drop in solar activity leading to cold be right:

And if my own findings re the previous sudden & massive drop in global temperatures some 8-12,000 years after the interglacial starts (we are now 10,000 years in) is right, if as well the North Atlantic Oscillation is going to start causing cooling leading to additional cooling in the next 20 years then it may well be that 2006 was literally the beginning of the next “ice-age”.

Am I being serious?

I’d like to put in some massive caveat: “of course I don’t think it will happen”. However, we are now seeing things on the one-year, decadal, century and millennium that all indicate that (within those time bands) we have or will see cooling. I’d like to say the above video has blown the issue out of all proportion and moderate cooling may come, but now nearly as bad as they suggest. But most of all, I’d like to point to credible climate data from honest organisations – not ones from those acting fraudulently fabricating warming adjustments so that no one at all knows whether we are currently seeing cooling.
So seriously – I haven’t a clue what it means except it is another nail in the coffin of the “global warming” fraud, and hopefully when the dust is settled – when we finally have credible climate data we can trust – we might then know whether or not there’s anything at all to be concerned about.

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Naomi Klein says Paris Summit "turning into a farce"

Has Naomi finally learnt a bit of science and come around to the sceptic view? Sadly the answer is no.
Instead, it’s not the farce of a conference being held to stop global warming – after 18 years without any of that warming according to the only reliable global temperature (corroborated by growing Antarctic, global sea ice and Surface Greenland ice). Instead the farce she is protesting are 24 completely imbecilic and frankly dangerously suicidal climate extremists. Who are so crazy, they just don’t have the mental capacity or empathy to understand that if the Paris police are already over-stretched are organising the protection of 10-40,000 visitors at a time of war (some 200 events have been cancelled), then they simply do not have the man-power to baby sitting these morons.
But no! Naomi Klein would rather the French Police were forced to shut down #COP21 (which I would be more than happy to see) than that her climate extremist friends were prevented from endangering their own, their gullible friends and worst of all the French Police and public’s safety by staging a totally pointless & illegal protest.
Source in the Guardian – but as they are another bunch of dangerous Climate extremists I’m not linking to them.

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