Updated Global Temperature predictions

Looking at October Enso, it looks likely that we will see a decline over the next 6-8months so that we are at a minimum around April – June Next year. So, just as it has boosted global temperature for the last few months, so now we will see a decline in Global Temperature due to ENSO.
It is therefore very likely that real global temperatures (i.e. satellites recording actual temperatures as opposed to the fabricated ones particularly from NASA and NOAA), will show marked cooling for the next 6-8 months.
However, this is on top of the longer term AMO cycle which is now firmly heading toward cooling (2010-2040). And there are good reasons to believe solar will contribute significantly to further cooling. CO2 continues rising, but the effect is now known to be quite small amounting to perhaps 0.02 to 0.06C/decade warming. However, other factors may have an affect. Changing land use tends to increase warming and changing levels of air pollution can be significant, and there are reasons to believe this could go up but also down in the next decade.
So, beyond next year, the year-to-year change become less predictable, but longer term we are more likely than not to see cooling over the next decade. And from 2020, we may again see warming (very roughly, the early warming resumes, the stronger the man-made contribution).

Posted in Climate | 11 Comments

Prediction: Paris Climate Talks will be cancelled early next week

After the appalling events in Paris last night, many have started questioning the wisdom of going ahead with COP21.
If anyone has been following the run up to what I was calling the “DeadParrotTalks” (but in light of events that does not seem appropriate), you will know that for months many Greens are widely predicting the talks to be a failure. However, normally, such is the momentum of these things, that they are never called off.
However, I think they will now be cancelled for the following reasons:
World Leaders will cancel

The first thing, is that coming out of the blue and so soon before the Paris conference, World leaders are not going to want to gather together to present themselves as a choice terrorist target in Paris. Also, many have their own home grown terrorists and would not wish to be seen wasting their time at a failed conference.
The Delegates will cancel
Research by of all people, Lewandowsky, shows that the kind of people attending these events are the more gullible in society. They ignore the actual risk and instead they focus on the perceived risk. So, just as they can be persuaded that a minuscule increase in plant food is the greatest evil of humanity “worse than terrorism” – well you can imagine what a real risk like actual terrorism will do to them. Many will find “very important” reasons why they are needed elsewhere
Due to the international nature, there will now be a much increased security risk at any COP21
Because of these event, the French police, if COP21 went ahead, would need to devote perhaps 2x to 3x the resources they had intended to enable to talks to go ahead safely (and even more to make delegates feel safe)
The French Police have far more important things to do than baby sit a lot of climate hysterics.
When I heard that some 30,000 French police were already starting to prepare for COP21, it was obvious that these talks were going to be a massive drain on the same anti-terrorist police resources that are now needed to track down and stop these terrorists and any future attacks.
The French president and other politicians will have far more important things to do

Right now, the last thing anyone in Paris is concerned with is a climate that has not warmed for 18 years. And any politician seen working on any other issue than this terrorism (and certainly something as frivolous as climate) is going to feel the wrath of public anger. So, COP21 is now an unwelcome distraction which may well bring a lot of anger for any French politician wasting time on it.
The talks will be a failure
They would welcome an excuse to pull the plug

The rational thing is to pull the plug

The obvious thing for the French police to do, is to pull out the 30,000 police assigned for these talks – which are not going anywhere soon anyway and even the greens will admit can be delayed for at least another year – and deploy them on finding, capturing and destroying support for these terrorists.
Fundamentally, it boils down to this: many will now not attend COP21, and the only way most of the other COP21 delegates will now attend the conference in Paris, is if the Police in Paris drop the terrorist investigation and devote their whole time to protecting the COP21 delegates. One of these is going to have to give: the terrorist investigation and protection of public safety – or some talks already known to be a failure which likely many delegates would not attend even if every second person were armed police.
So, I predict, that very early next week, the French President will ask the UN to cancel the talks.

Posted in Climate | 9 Comments

Could Paris Climate talks now be target for extremist violence?

As news comes in of another series of violent attacks in Paris, questions must surely be raised as to whether it can be safe to bring in so many world leaders from all over the globe to a meeting – which will be attended by radical climate extremists – some of whom are not unused to violent protest – particularly when it is known the meeting will not provide any tangible outcome.
Paris is clearly a hotbed of extremists – and surely COP21 will be a very tempting target!

Paris shootings and explosions near Stade deAt least 18 people have been killed in several shootings in the French capital, Paris, as well as explosions at the Stade de France.

At least one man opened fire with an automatic gun at the Petit Cambodge restaurant in the 11th district.
Liberation newspaper reports shootings near the Bataclan arts centre.
Three explosions are also reported outside a bar near the Stade de France, where France were hosting Germany.
Reports say French President Francois Hollande was watching the match and has been moved to safety.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-34814203

My thoughts and condolences to any caught up in this.

Posted in Climate | 2 Comments

Guardian bored of climate: "Melting glacier? Yawn. Climate change is boring"

If you wanted to prove that that even the Guardian know they’ve lost the public’s interest on “the greatest problem scam facing humanity”, then this latest headline from Owen Jones of the (loss making) Guardian says it all:

LittleCreep

Of course, it wasn’t half so boring when people were still gullible enough to swallow their extremists claptrap, nor before they stopped sceptics like me from commenting on their articles (usually I might add, to a storm of protests and howls from those who don’t like their noses rubbed in the evidence).
But you can get the drift:

it bores us to tears“, “

less than a quarter admitted to be either extremely or very worried about it.“,

my fear is we will occasionally glance at these stories, grimace a bit, and then move on to the latest snaps of Kate Middleton.” .

.. and OK, I admit it was too boring to read to the end so there’s undoubtedly more like that.
What we see here, is a born again climate extremist trying to reconcile his own evidence-lite utter conviction in extremist fiction, with the reality of 18 years without warming, growing Antarctic ice, sea ice normal, Greenland surface ice growing since 1990, etc. Everyone else has lost interest, but not this lad (presumably his first job). But like the last people in the party still sticking around after everyone else has left, this guy looks like the kind you find still in your flat in the morning. Utterly boring as a person and utterly boring in his writing style. (And he get’s paid for it?)

Posted in Climate | 4 Comments

Like an Earthquake – anthem for sceptics?

As the overwhelming physical evidence against current warming causes more and more of the Global Warming Scam to fall apart, I think I might have found an anthemn for us sceptics:

Like An Earthquake

What makes this so poignant, is not only that it has a nice geophysical them – but that the Climate Extremist Biased Broadcasting Company also appear to have banned it  – and simply because they are Scottish. Now, personally, I don’t care if the artist is a born again green, or a Scot Nat  – the BBC should not ban her any more than they banned us sceptics. So here she is, the one and only Sandi Thom, from Fife (not far from Andrew Montford)

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Independent removes notorious: Children Won't know what snow is – article

There can be few things as vile as using children to push your politics. And that is what Dr Viner did when he chose to insinuate to parents of young children that their actions would be denying children the same childhood memories they had of snow.
And to rub it in … it snowed today (just)!
I will admit, as a parent of a young child, seeing their first Christmases, I saw the article and I really did believe – what is now unequivocally, the biggest load of lying crap. He told a blatant lie, intending to play on the natural feeling of parents toward their children, in order to sell his vile and now proven false political views about climate. Views that have seen some 1 million extra winter deaths in the UK since this scam started go almost unreported by the media, whilst they go on endless about the “harm” of CO2 the plant food.
And do academic’s like Viner care one damn about all that 1 million who die from cold related deaths? Apparently not!
So, don’t think you’ll get away with this Dr Viner or your co-conspirators in the Independent. Here is their vile extremist abuse of children & decent society preserved for all time**:
https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2015/11/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-the-independent.pdf
**(well another few decades at least)

Posted in Climate | 1 Comment

Exxon: Oh Mann oh Mann

Michael Mann is an idiot. His Hockeystick might have started as an error in the code, but his failure to come clean and then his stupid self-proclaimed “Nobel prize”** and other lies means he has become a laughing stock.
Exxon, like every other oil company has gained hugely from the global warming scam, as idiotic energy policies pushed up the price of energy and oil (a huge boon) and opened up new “wind” sectors which all the big oil companies are dabbling in. So in one way or another they always profit – after all, what do they care how they make their money?
And as for funding Sceptics – it’s a complete lie. Because when I was Chairman of the Scottish Climate and Energy Forum, I wrote to each and everyone of the BIG OIL companies asking for help in the form of a donation. Only one replied and that was to say no in the a very short email. There was not the slightest interest at all in funding sceptics whatsoever – not on your nelly – not one penny. So, I know personally that they have no interest whatsoever in sceptics or helping our cause.
Indeed, given their disinterest in funding sceptics, and the profits they make from this global warming scam, I have to admit it has crossed my mind many times that that Exxon themselves (or a competitor) dreamed up this scheme to help “slur” us sceptics (and Exxon?), in the hope of keeping this global warming gravy train going for all those with their snouts in the trough from BIG OIL to Mann. It’s all profit to these oil companies and if anyone ought to know how devious they are it’s the greens – but they are SO GULLIBLE!
However, there’s a grubby little article someone’s written and Mann’s always good for a laugh, so if you want to read the vile rantings and fast irrelevant garbage here it is:
http://insideclimatenews.org/news/12112015/michael-mann-climate-change-scientist-interview-exxon-mobil-investigation-global-warming


**Just to show you what a prat Mann is, let me explain why if he’s a “Nobel Prize Winner” then I and everyone else is also a winner of the same “Nobel prize”. First, he is not a member of the IPCC nor employed by it. So in no way can he claim to have got the Nobel Prize. That’s because the members of the IPCC are world governments.
However, there is a comical argument that can be used and it goes like this: because he’s part of the US (who got the prize), this means that everyone in the US also got the same award. But ironically, that argument (if true) would mean I’ve got two Nobels,  because the EU got another Nobel award for “peace”.

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First Comment to COP21!!!

I was looking for the dates of COP21 – to find out when the DeadParrotTalks would be over and found that no one had commented on the YouTube video on their front page … so I hurriedly added some comments (not actually expecting them to appear) … but they did!!!

https://youtu.be/vYtQMYHU0nY

Cop21
What on earth can a load of hypocrites flying to Paris to gorge themselves tell us about the climate?
The real climate has had no warming for 18 years as the satellites show, corroborated by the growing Antarctic ice, that global sea ice is at its normal level and even Greenland surface ice has grown since 1990. So the physical evidence overwhelming disproves this global warming hypothesis … it is dead, it has gone to meet it’s maker, it is only kept alive by a whole load of gullible people and others with their snouts too deep in the trough of public money to care about the poor of this world.
And what about them? Rising CO2 is causing record harvests and greening of the deserts. Isn’t that great! Isn’t it fantastic that we are helping to feed the poor without some daft UN scheme where the rich cream off the money leaving almost nothing for the poor?
15x the number of people die from cold globally as warming. In the UK alone there have been some 1 million extra winter deaths since this scam started. The bio-fuels scandal killed many poor. This whole Cop is not only unscientific, it is immoral!
Show less

Posted in Climate | 6 Comments

The Advanced Greenhouse theory implies 100m rise in effective top of atmosphere

If you are still one of the people who believe the “Greenhouse theory” of warming, but don’t quite know why it sounds rubbish. Let me recap the advanced theory & the differences (CO2 used to mean all greenhouse gases including H2O).

  • The greenhouse theory says CO2 absorbs IR – the advanced theory says it absorbs and emits IR
  • The Greenhouse theory says that the greenhouse effect is strongest at the bottom of the atmosphere under the blanket of the atmosphere (BS). The advanced theory says the effect of CO2 has most effect at the top.
  • The Greenhouse theory says the atmosphere doesn’t have any lapse rate through the atmosphere. The advanced theory says that as we rise up, the reduction in energy of the gas results in a loss of energy and so temperature.
  • The greenhouse theory has a fictional atmosphere with no mass, no mechanism for convective currents and models it as a single temperature.

In short the “greenhouse” gas theory is not only wrong in name (greenhouses don’t work the way suggested) but it is wrong scientifically and no wonder so many people look at it and think it is BS.
To help understand the real atmosphere, I’ve shown a model below. In this atmosphere the temperature drops as we rise up from the ground according to the lapse rate (or as shown: adiabatic lapse rate – which ignores rain).  The model then says that if we were to look at the source of most radiation (or at least the part active in Greenhouse warming), then most of it comes from the top layers of the atmosphere (although in reality as 90% of the atmosphere is in the troposphere, this “top” is quite low down in the actual atmosphere.)
So, the temperature of the top surface of the atmosphere can be calculated by assuming its a black body and that temperature comes out at around 255C. The surface is measured at around 288C. This shows that the temperature drop due to potential energy loss of energy moving from ground surface up to radiative surface equates to an average around 33C. This is what is called the “greenhouse effect” (wrongly)

Removing all the irrelevant components from the Penn State "opaque atmosphere" model, we are left with the above.

Removing all the irrelevant components from the Penn State “opaque atmosphere” model, we are left with the above.

The effect of CO2

Continue reading

Posted in Advanced Greenhouse Theory, Climate | 16 Comments

The break down of modern society: is this the inevitable march to WWIII?

Around 15 years ago, the (once) highly popular BBC Today program introduced a forum on the internet. I was an active member of that forum, with views not that dissimilar to the broadcasters: but working in industry, I was far more pragmatic and worldly and so far more aware of the need to encourage engineering, industry and profit.
However, I began to notice a new phenomenon (new to me). What I observed were individuals who desperately wanted to talk about immigration. At first, like the BBC staff, I assume they were racist, but I came to realise as I read what they wrote, that each and every time they tried to raise the subject – whilst I could see nothing wrong in what they said – the BBC moderators would just close down the discussion and ban those individuals who attempted to raise the subject.

No discussion at all – absolutely nothing – was allowed about immigration.

So, 15 years later, you can imagine how sickening I now feel to find the same intolerant BBC people, going on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on …. about immigration at every news. And, far from seeing that their fascist intolerance 15 years ago was unjustified, they have the same pro-immigration views. So, I know that everything they broadcast about immigration is the most politically slanted and biased claptrap. Continue reading

Posted in Climate | 3 Comments