As the only commentator has said, a plan needs to be flexible. But there are some items that are critical to most plans. Having been thinking about this for a while, a few things are cropping up as essential and I’m going to try listing those that have raised their heads so far:

• A spade and general digging tools, and an entrenching tool, which can be wielded in a trench (this is necessary for a trench if you can’t otherwise get below ground).
• A stout tarpaulin (>8x5m) and a rope and gaffa tape to make a dust and rain proof cover (this is necessary for the trench but also for the journey out)
• Water containers … a lot of them. (100l per person)
• A trolley/cart to carry water (35l/person) + food for a week + camping gear
• (not found) A radiation detector that reliable works in areas up to 100rad/hour and which is proof against EMP. This is necessary to navigate your route out of a fallout zone, to ensure you don’t go into hot spots
• (not found) An EMP proof radio. The only way to know where fallout has fallen, to plan your route out of a fallout zone, is to hope that government broadcasts this information on radio. Most likely, they will not, partly because government will collapse, but partly because they will try to force people to stay in the fallout zones, because they won’t be able to cope with those leaving. Whilst EMP is unproven … it’s still best to have a radio that would survive one.
• Warm sleeping and clothing. For the journey out, it is preferable you have backpacking mats and sleeping bags which are designed to be carried.
• Warm clothing, stout boots, map and compass (Even if you have a GPS, the satellites may not function)
• Food
  • for the shelter (14 days) – tins are fine, avoid anything needing cooking
  • for the journey out (7 days) –  no tins except those without water like spam or energy rich like jam.
  • for the next year(s) … not practical to carry it out, but still essential. A bit of a pickle!
• Camping cooking equipment. Gas will soon run out. You will quickly run out of matches or they get wet and unusable
• All your essential documents: birth certificate, passport, bank cards and account details or copies (once you leave your house, you may never be allowed to return).
• All your essential contacts (family, friends, work)
• First aid (still very provisional):
  • All your standard meds, for a year (including contraceptives)
  • Burns: Your intended way to treat serious and extensive burns
  • Trauma: A well stocked very good first aid kit
  • Diseases: Antiseptics, antibiotics, water purification, diarrhoea treatment
  • A lot of washable/boilable bandages, cotton wool & anti-septic to cope with large open wounds for weeks. A large cotton sheet, that can be torn into strips may work
• Sanitary supplies: bucket & suitable plastic bags for disposal of solids for 14 days. Toilet paper
• Washing: bucket, cloths, soap, shampoo + detergent (clothes)
• Lighting: Torch (with a lot of batteries, or means to recharge) (paraffin lamp + a lot of paraffin?)
• Non-electric ways to be entertained such as books – but needs to be large print to be able to read in the dark of the shelter & many reading glasses. Something like musical instruments can be used in the dark.

Vehicle

I’m going to deal with a vehicle separately. The general rule with an emergency, is there is no point trying to get out by vehicle, unless you are well ahead of everyone else. My gut feeling is that after a nuclear attack, you will find your way out by vehicle blocked. So, even if the vehicle works (it may be affected by EMP if there is one), you may only get a couple of miles before the way is blocked. At this point a 4×4 with a winch is more likely to find a way around. But even with a 4×4, I think eventually you will have to walk. So, you should plan to walk because that is more difficult to plan for. Then you can easily use the car if its available. But if you plan to drive, you will then have real problems if you end up having to walk.

Mobile phones?

I guess most people will have to take them into a shelter, but I think they will be useless (except as a list of names). I suspect that the mobile phone network would be amongst the first things hit. With nothing much else to do, people will play on their phone till the battery runs out. They might have spare batteries. When they run out, they may as well throw them away. The company that used to supply your mobile phone will be gone, and it will probably be years before you can afford to get a new contract – with a new number. So, that list of contact numbers on your phone … not a lot of use as everyone has new numbers. Best to write down the names & numbers on a piece of paper, & backup all your electronic material entirely to a USB stick.

But that mobile will be something to hand on to your children … OK, I’m being a little over pessimistic. But you would be best to plan to make do without your phone and then it will be great for you if you find you can use it.

Note this is work in progress.
If you rely on this to deal with a nuclear war and die, don’t blame me.

After a nuclear war, we should expect to have to deal with any and all medical emergencies ourselves, whether caused by the emergency or not. That much is clear.

However, I am struggling to work out what that means in terms of preparation. Most medical advice is what is loosely termed “first aid” which assumes a patient will relatively rapidly be taken under the care of a medic. That will not happen after a nuclear war. There is a very different & more complex kind of response needed for us

My research suggests that the most likely treatable medical issues are going to be:

• Burns, 1st (sunburn), 2nd (normal) & 3rd (deep) and over extensive areas of the body.
• Trauma, particulary to the head and upper body
• Illnesses caused by insanitary living, poor quality food, inactivity, cold, damp, etc.

The one obvious thing missing is radiation sickness. The reason I’m not listing it, is that I have been unable to find any way to treat it, except the normal treatment that would be given to someone who is “ill”.

Let’s look at these major medical issues one by one to see how they might be treated.

Burns

Burns will come from the flash, there may also be fires.

The general first aid for burns is to cool with clean running water. There is no reason I know why the same is not true for the flash burns.

There are bandages and applications intended for burns. There is no reason why these would not work just as well on the flash burns as they do for normal burns (I’ve carefully avoiding saying they work!)

The general longer-term treatment for burns seems to be the same for any open wound: to keep it clean, bandaged and avoid infection. So the medical equipment is that for treating open wounds.

Trauma

The injuries from Trauma will mostly come from the blast wave. This picks up material and flings it at great speed and causes buildings to collapse. This is not that different from the injuries causes by military explosions or collisions. So, except for the fact that there will be no gunshot wounds a standard military kit and treatment should suffice. This is also the kind of injury during a road traffic accident. So, medical kits for cars, will address the same kinds of problems.

However, treating those injured by trauma through a nuclear war is a whole different kettle of fish to military first aid. Military treatment is focussed on preserving life on the front line long enough to evacuate to trained medical facilities. After a nuclear explosion, anyone injured by trauma will have to be treated by those around them. That is not what a military first aid kit is designed to do.

The general treatment of open wounds (above) would apply. But there are many extremely complex complications. It’s not clear how these should be treated.

Illnesses caused by insanitary living, etc.

The third category is the kinds of conditions that occur in refugee camps. The best treatment is prevention.

Water, sanitation and Anti-biotics

The single biggest factors for the excellent health of modern people is the availability of clean water, sanitation and anti-biotics for the treatment of infections. After a nuclear conflict, clean water will be difficult, sanitation will be very difficult and the general public are denied life saving anti-biotics. It is more or less guaranteed that many people will become seriously ill and die from easily preventable and treatable infections.

General medicine

On top of the above specific conditions, normal medical conditions will occur. Normal household medicines will be useful, but in addition, there will be conditions arising where we would normally seek medical help, but there will be none.

At this stage, I don’t know enough to add much more. It’s an area I need to work on.

The reality is that most people will do no preparation before a nuclear attack, especially a pre-emptive attack as seems likely.

Assuming we hit the ground

Hit the ground!

Still not doing it?

Then you have a high chance of avoiding the serious burns. If you survived you were not affected by the blast wave. And, you now have at least 15minutes to prepare a shelter to save your life from deadly radioactivity.

It’s simple if you have a cellar … that’s where you go.

It’s simple if you know some underground place you can get into within 15minutes. That is where you go

If however, you live on a boring estate of modern houses none of which has a cellar and the only underground space anywhere near is a pub with doors built like a fortress to keep out the most determined intruder. You have a problem.

This article is to explore what is possible in 15minutes.

Sensible approach

I’ll start with the boring answer, which is there is no way on earth that one person can build a shelter from scratch and equip it, unless they happen to have a working excavator and can dig out something in five minutes. Alternatively, if you happen to already have a purpose made hole.

And it’s not as if there’s not a lot else to do. There’s the original ground level all the water containers to fill (which you just happen to have lying around .. no?), whilst gathering bedding, warm clothing, food, cooking, toilet, washing things. And then you have to get them all into the hole and cover it over with a roof that stops dust and better still has earth on it.

Realistically, the only sane approach if you only have 15minutes is to find a space in your house that is least exposed via windows and doors to the radioactive fallout lying on the ground around your house.

Mad hatter approach

But let’s indulge my madness. You have a wife partner … we assume they will do everything else that is needed (they are a miracle worker). You have 15minutes, what do you do?

Let’s be honest, none of this is possible in 15minutes, but you might manage something if the wind is travelling 30km/h and you are 30km from the epicentre. That suggests you have an hour, but I wouldn’t bet more than 30minutes.

Also, remember, the very first minutes of the fallout are by far the worst. No “I’ll just finish this” … when it comes, you have to be in the best protection you have at that time, no matter how bad it is.

The only place that can give anything like good protection is the soil. And, unless you have an excavator or a purpose made hole, you have to dig one. Realistically, even a fit purpose is going to struggle to dig more than one spade deep by a couple of square meters in 15 minutes.

Find the place

The ideal place is grass, with two things sticking out the ground onto which the tarpaulin can be strung, which aren’t trees which will collect fallout dust. And, obviously close to the supplies (we don’t want to overstress the wife who’s got the easy task). It also must not be overlooked by any land. So don’t put a shelter in a steep sided valley. If the ground where the shelter looks onto a 1 in 3 rising slope, then if sidewards on, a 3ft wide trench has to be 1foot deeper for the same protection. If end on, then a 8ft long trench has to be 2’8″ deeper (80cm). Even looking end on to a 1 in 16 rising slope requires an extra 6″ depth.

Put up a simple but large cover

Basically, you start by putting up a large tent. This will sound mad as tents don’t attenuate radiation. It’s certainly not recommended in anything I’ve seen. The reason is two fold:

1. To cause any fallout dust to settle well away from the shelter
2. To attempt to produce an air/wind tight space for the first 12 hours and reduced air flow after.

But although it does keep the fallout further away and it does reduce dust breathed in, it does nothing to stop radiation directly. To do that we have to get below ground.

You need a tarpaulin with a slope sharper than 45degrees, which will cause any fallout dust to tumble down the tarpaulin onto the ground at the far side of the wall you are about to build. That wall is going to be 3x4m and so the tarpaulin has to be something like 5x 8m with the edges buried to stop air flow. Likewise the ends have to be taped up. You also need a line strung up so the “ridge” is over 2m high. And, you don’t want it blowing down in the wind. So, keep it robust.

Realistically, unless you are practised and have a place prepared to hang it, putting up the tarpaulin will take the entire 15minutes. But it means the ground under the tarpaulin will not be contaminated by the fallout. It also gives your wife has a place to put her supplies.

Ideally, the tarpaulin should be dug into the ground so that no air flows through with external trenches to take the dust. Yes, that does mean you will suffocate, but not for a few days and not until after the fallout dust has settled and is far less likely to be blown into your shelter. You should be fine for the first 12 hours, during that initial period every hole to the outside should be taped over.

After 12 hours, you can add ventilation, but on the down side of prevailing wind.

Break down your neighbour’s fence

Addendum: After thinking about it, I’ve realised that when constructing a very quick shelter, there isn’t a lot of point having a roof. (see end)

You need stout timbers ideally 6-8foot long and material to support earth between the stout timbers. Fence posts are adequate supporting struts, fencing material can be spread over them to support soil. Alternatively a carpet. If you don’t have fence posts, then stout wooden doors will have to do.

Realistically, unless you are a builder with gorilla arms and a crowbar, this is never going to take less than 15minutes. But let’s assume you are a gorilla (and your neighbour is away).

This material now needs to go in the tent, but out of the way from where you are digging. I am not sure how the large sheets of covering material go in. A carpet roll is easier to imagine. At this point, all the material should be in the “tent” and it can now be taped shut … although your wife, who is no doubt having a cuppa as she finalises the packing before moving for the rest of her life, might have a view on the subject.

Place four fence posts around the hole to mark the inner edge of the wall you will make. There should be a 1ft gap from the inner edge to the edge of the shelter trench. (A 3ft wide trench, the distance inside the walls is 5ft. Place the remainder of posts at one end ready to be lifted over the hole as supports for the roof. Ensure the struts go at least 6″ beyond the line of posts, otherwise there is nothing to hold them up!

Dig a hole, roof it and get in

The hole is 1m (3ft) by ~2.4m (8ft). Start by removing a strip of  turf down one side of the hole and place it just beyond the poles at the side to form the wall with the gap of 1foot from the edge of the wall to the edge of the shelter trench. Do the same at the other side. The shelter trench now has a line of turf down the centre. Use this to build the wall at each end (leaving a 1ft gap). Now finish removing turf and building up the surrounding wall as high as you can. The end walls should be about a fence post higher than the side

Now dig down till you have a space just big enough and deep enough that all the occupants can get in below ground level before the fallout

Place the stout timbers across from one wall to the other, put the roofing material on it, get all your supplies under the roof (not necessarily in the hole) …  now get in a lie down.

… before the fallout!!

You have to get into the hole before the fallout, so no matter where you have got to, you get into whatever hole you dug. And, then you work whilst lying in the hole. BELOW the original ground level or if you can’t get below, as low down as you can get.

If you’ve done the above in plenty of time, what to do now you’re twiddling your thumbs?

If by some miracle, you finish the shelter in 10minutes, the wife has stocked the entire kitchen supplies in it and there is still room to get in. What do you do with the remaining time?

Don’t work in the shelter. Instead as long as there is no chance of fallout on the soil, take earth from around the shelter and extent out 1foot and cover the roof with as much soil as the timbers will easily support. But do not overstress the roofing timbers. Whatever you do, do not use soil that has fallout on it for this.

On the roof, you leave a gap of about 1foot at the end so you can get in and out … find something that makes a simple “hatch” to cover this, but leave it open with the hatch where it can be flipped over to cover, so you have light. You probably won’t use the hatch, unless the tarpaulin gets damaged and dust gets through it.

Finish the shelter

The fallout has arrived, and you have to give up all external work and get into a shelter that I said should be 1foot deep with 1foot walls, but strangely it has shrunk. Tough luck! Did I mention to stay in the bit below the original ground surface?

Get in and now start digging down. Your first priority is to fill all the gaps you left in the wall (through which daylight is pouring). Then you fill the gap between the wall you created and the trench top. If you can squeeze it over the top, do that as well. By the time you have filled the void around the top edge of the hole, the hole you are digging should be an average of about 2foot deep, but it would be better if it were 1ft at one end and 3ft at the other. Half a hole 3ft deep is far easier than a whole hole 2ft deep. With the roof 1foot above the original ground surface, you could have a hole 4ft of headroom. A palace! But only if the walls are straight up to the roof. More likely they will probably be sloped. That halves the protection at the top and so you should keep your head below the level of the original ground surface.

Once you’re in the shelter, work will be slow, particularly if you don’t have short spade like an entrenching tool. Once the gap around the top of trench under the roof is filled, you then have to throw material out of the hatch and onto the roof.

Sky back scatter and dust-to-ground radiation

This trench shelter is very good at stopping radiation from fallout lying on the surrounding ground, but the protection in the trench is much less effective for any body part above the level of the old ground surface (albeit far better than a house) and even 6″ of soil on top gives very little protection from back scatter from the sky and radiation when there is fallout in the air (albeit 6″ is still far better than a house). The deeper and narrower the trench, the more it protects from sky radiation. The thicker the roof soil, the better. But the very worst radiation occurs at the very start of the fallout. At that point, your entire body must be below the ground surface, ideally well below it, if the trench is too shallow or small to work, don’t work. Leave it 12 hours and then restart.

You really want as much soil on top as you can. Your immediate focus is not a living space, it’s a way to get below ground, ideally with soil covering that place. The smaller the hole you need to dig, the quicker it will be to get down and the deeper you can go so the more protection you have.

Absolute minimalist 15min shelter

This is an existing hole with a sloped surface above to shed any dust. The hole needs to be deep enough to get your body below the ground surface. The surface is sloped and large enough to cause falling debris to tumble onto the ground at least 1m beyond the hold. So, basically it is putting up a tent over a ditch or drain.

If you don’t have a tarpaulin, drive a car onto a ditch and get under. Once under, start digging down and filling in the ends and the gaps between the ground and the car base. Remember to fill around the wheels, because rubber is very poor at stopping radiation.

The problem with this approach, is that you will quickly run out of clean soil from within the trench and/or risk the soil collapsing. Also, a ditch has a tendency to fill with water.

Ways to speed it up

If you have premade walls that are just far enough apart to place stout fence posts so they just rest on the end, and they happen to be 1-2ft high, and you happen to have fence posts ready with sheeting ready, You can place the posts, place the material and get in and then start digging from inside. But you still need a tarpaulin which sheds fallout beyond the wall. In this circumstance, I would start digging from one end to make the minimum size hole you can just lie in crouched. Now dig down and place the soil inside the wall (it needs to go all around, or soil piled to make ti go all around). Just before the fallout, cover over  the top and get in the “foxhole” with your body below ground level and keep digging down till you have working space and then either continue down, or work sidewards until you can lie stretched out, and then keep going down.

The main reason this speeds it up, is because you are not trying to build the wall using the top turf. The earth is just chucked against the already built wall. You also have more headroom, which means you have more space around the top into which to put material from the trench. This speeds up digging the trench, but you may run out of material in the hole to cover the roof.

The advantage to the following is that the soil within the walls is protected from fallout dust. So, you can continue working on the shelter after the fallout. That minimise the work needed to be done before the fallout.

The flowerbed shelter

Another speedy shelter is to remove all the soil from a 8’x3′ flower bed, place it around the flower bed, build it up to give walls of soil 2′ thick and then to get in. But there are a lot of problems with this type of shelter. It certainly needs a cover to stop dust getting in. But worse, the flower bed walls may well collapse if you dig down below their bottom. You also cannot continue working on the wall after the roof is on and you are inside. So, you have to do most of the work before the fallout, and then there is very little opportunity to do more.

If you are planning on surprising the wife with a 8’x 3′ flower bed, make sure the walls go down something like 5′ into the ground, or you are in some other way shoring up the sides.

The concrete base Shelter

If you have a garage or driveway, with a base created from reinforced concrete, then there is the potential to dig a tunnel under it. There is also the potential it will collapse on you. But it might be an option.

The extendible trench

If you have the time to make a basic trench before the fallout. One thing you might consider is to create a second rectangle of walls at the end of the first and to cover this over entirely. The entrance should be at the end away from this extension. This extension is just to the sides and extra end wall. But, this allows you from within the safety of the trench to extend the original trench. However, to do this, you have to burrow under the end wall, and that means that stout timbers must be laid under this end wall to support it. Also there should not be a direct line of view from one trench into the other. A zig zag with thick (2ft?) walls is required, Firstly that is because when you first break through the extension trench won’t have the thick walls, but secondly, a long trench lets in more sky radiation. Also, with long trenches you need to ensure that there is no rising land around, so that no land surface, which has collected fallout, overlooks. You must not be able to see any surface overlooking land looking down the trench.

With an extendible trench, it will be difficult to cover with tarpaulin. The best way around this, is to pile up earth on the supports or perhaps put straw or other material, and then lay the tarpaulin on top

Surrounding Trenching

Ideally, rather than the fallout dust rollout down onto the ground surface, where it could be washed in by rain, you should dig a trench so that the dust rolls into this. The trench should be well over 3ft or 1m from the edge of the living trench.

Improved Entrance

The simplest entrance to make is a vertical exit, so that you climb up above the ground. It then helps to protect those inside, if the end walls are slightly higher than the others and ideally thicker. (1m)

After you have added soil to the roof above the living space end of the trench, the exit will remain as a gaping hole through the defences. If as I suggest, you have a tarpaulin and the tarpaulin remains either wind tight, or with minimal ventilation to stop wind blowing through, then the amount of dust entering the shelter should be very small.

The problem with doing much more than building up the walls, is that you should not be leaving the shelter and it is likely you are running out of material to use.

One of the simplest ways to improve the entrance, is to get your dining room table and to place it above the entrance, leaving just enough room to get into/out of the shelter. You then cover it with as much soil as the table can support. The problem is working out how to support the table on the trench side. On this side, the soil will very likely collapse tilting onto the shelter. The alternative is a joist across the trench.

The Shelter in the earth beneath a house DON’T

Whilst a purpose made cellar is a good idea, generally, whilst it may seem a good idea, to dig into the soil within a house, it is not advisable. This is because the walls of the house create a region of stress which spreads out beneath the foundations. If you dig into this region, you could cause the house to collapse. It might be possible to do it safely, but because of the risk to people and the house, I can’t encourage it.

Addendum

Writing this article I kept finding that I had allocated time to make a roof, but the roof wasn’t doing anything, because there hadn’t been time to do it. The roof dictates the walls, the walls constrain the design so that there is space to work under the roof, but the roof doesn’t do a lot, because there isn’t time to put soil on it before the fallout and it isn’t needed to keep out the weather.

By ditching the roof, the time to get the roof timber goes, the walls go, it becomes a lot easier to excavate the hole and I may be getting near to achieving an actual 15minute shelter.

In the last three articles, I started to talk about the mechanics of preparation. Started … because I’m trying to work out what is needed.

In this article, I wanted to think a little about the psychology, because I can’t get my head around the fact I’m thinking through this appalling scenario, whilst normality is still happening around me and I’m doing the minimum actual preparation myself.

In part, the reason is the very rational: I don’t yet know what I’m trying to prepare for, and how I can prepare for it. So, for example, there is no point digging a hole in the garden to hide in, if it turns out that my best option is to move house. Indeed, it could be counterproductive, to have a big hole in the garden, when trying to sell the house and move.

But, in part, it is that I cannot believe what I think is coming, is coming. It’s the “rabbit unable to move in the headlights” scenario. I can see the danger, but I am fixated by the danger and unable to respond.

But also, I know most other people don’t see any issue. I am in a small minority who is predicting this terrible thing. My reasoning is based on my own understanding of similar historical events, and as such quite unique, and, let’s be honest, untested. And, it will remain untested and unproven, until it either proves a reliable way to forecast such appalling events, or it fails. Should I really trust my own judgement when so few agree? I got a lot right about covid, I was right about climate. When I finally did the research to understood that we were being lied to on Russia, I got that as well. I won’t always be right, I am not always right, but it’s absolutely certain that people like the media & politicians are wrong about such large scale things far more often than I am.

On the other side, I look at history and I look at the jews of Germany, and I keep asking: “why didn’t they get out before it started”. I can now see why. Even if you are aware of the danger, it is very hard to believe you are right. It’s so easy to just keep to your normal routine and put off doing anything about it. How do you square the reality of that “to do” list of household chores, with the fact that your house may not be there at all in a few weeks? I know how to to the “to do” list, I don’t know how to cope with my house being blown up. It’s easier to thing about the “to do” list, and ignore the possibility of your house being blow up.

It is just so much nicer to shut out the possibility of the appalling calamity and pretend life is normal, to preserve normality as long as possible to focus on the hear and now, and not to entertain the dark future. To keep partying to the end … and then die. Except you won’t. It will be a horrible death and you’ll hate yourself for partying.

A sensible approach: progressive preparedness

Continue reading →

In the last articles (Preparing for Nuclear war II) & then Revised Scenario I outlined what I consider to be likely scenarios for nuclear war. In this article, I want to start looking at some specifics. In particular what can be done to improve our chances of survival.

The Flash: duck and cover

The intense heat of the flash, is the most obvious start of a nuclear event. It is also the one thing that we can do most to protect ourselves against, because it doesn’t need complex shelters. The reason it is critical to protect from the flash, rather than initial radioactivity, is because if you are in the area where the initial radioactive radiation causes serious injury, you are also in the area where you are very likely to die from the blast wave. So, protecting yourself from the radioactivity, doesn’t help you survive, when the blast wave will get you.

If you are in the area where blast wave is killing people, the flash will be intense, the radiation will be intense, and you will likely be buried in rubble and die. Everything is against you. So unless you are lucky enough to be an extremely well made shelter before the blast, in the area where the direct radioactivity is an issue you are highly likely to die in the blast or shortly after.

However, if you are outside the area where the blast kills, you will survive, unless you get serious burns by the intense heat of the flash or suffer fallout. But since fallout mostly affects people downwind, it’s the flash that is the one single biggest factor for most people.

Unfortunately, the flash will cause serious life threatening burns over an extremely large area with a radius of 10s of kilometres. Whilst bigger bombs affect a much bigger area, on the “plus” side, the bigger the blast, the longer the “flash” and the more simply hitting the ground (“duck and cover”) can reduce your flash burn injuries.

So learn to HIT THE DECK … DO IT NOW!

Still reading? You’ve just killed yourself! Continue reading →

Yesterday in preparing for nuclear war II, I used a scenario of a single strike against the UK. On reflection, that seems unlikely, if for no other reason, than the aim of such a strike would be to force total capitulation, and given the arrogant fantasist behaviour of our politicians, it will take more than one decisive strike to force them to face reality.

So, I still do think there will be a “first” and devastating strike, at least to our ability to fire back. However, that may not be the actual first action and I’ve no doubt after thinking about it, that there will be a series of strikes, each aimed at progressively destroying our ability to resist.

As importantly, these will not all be nuclear. Indeed, the vast bulk of ordnance that hits the west is likely to be conventional arms, targeted at specific facilities, as small as a local gas terminal. I suspect the worst offenders like the BBC will be hit very early on (probably on the direct orders of the leader who like me, won’t think a lot of them). An obvious first target is to hit Westminster, MI5, MI6 GCHQ, all nuclear capability and all military command and control.

So, whilst there will be a devastating first wave of nuclear, there will also be conventional, the UK will try to retaliate, and that will cause wave after wave of attacks, to drive home the point that “we are not running out” and “any further attempt to retaliate will hurt you a lot more than it hurts us”.

Implications

This rather complicates things for us plebs who have to try to live through it. If you survive the first attack (and almost everyone except MPs, BBC & some military have a high chance of surviving), it doesn’t mean we are safe. As importantly, it doesn’t mean that if we weren’t affected by the first wave, we should forget about building ourselves a shelter or preparing provisions, etc.

Unlike a single sudden strike … where there is no chance to prepare, a series of attacks, means that most people will have some chance to prepare. That means, rather than “it’s all over before we can do anything”, there is a lot we can do.

Also, I hadn’t considered the use of conventional weapons. Potentially, the number of people whose chances of surviving can be improved by addressing the risks of conventional weapons may by a lot higher. It may be that sheltering from conventional weapons is the most effective way to increase survival chances. But that’s because Nuclear, is likely to either totally wipe you out, no matter how well you prepare, or leave you alone, making a shelter useless. Nuclear is a few key places, conventional could hit everywhere.

A nuclear shelter really has to be underground to be effective. Anything above ground, and your best strategy is to wait perhaps 12hours and then get moving, because the shelter is not increasing your chances of survival after that. But a conventional shelter can be above ground. It means we can all increase our chances of survival.

Also my concept of “move out the fallout zone (at the right time)” … was premised on a single strike, after which everywhere but the fallout zones is safe. In contrast, with continuing hits, there are now substantial risks for those moving around. The concept of “moving to safety” disappears.

Last year I started looking into what was needed to prepare for a nuclear war. In part, this was because my analysis of history indicated that large “revolutions” in information, usually led to periods of appalling behaviour such as the Witch trials and the various atrocities of Hitler, Stalin Mao in the early 20th century.

The purpose of this article, is to explain, what I believe to be a realistic scenario, and to start to think about what we as individuals can do to prepare. Key to that preparation, is having a concept of what “survival” looks like. Because unless we both believe a nuclear war is possible and also believe surviving is feasible, there doesn’t appear to be much point preparing.

Why believe me? Because as a physicist I understand the impacts of nuclear, and as someone researching survival, I have looked into survival techniques. And last year I started, not by looking at a survival book, or worse a prepping site, but by looking at what had been successful strategies during other emergencies. Not just 20th century, but going way back into history. Does that mean I will be right? Probably not, but I would hope to be less wrong than the vast bulk of other people writing on the subject.

As history is our best predictor of the future, and as nuclear war seems to be on the table right now, it looks very likely, given the current behaviour of politicians, that we will end in nuclear war. It’s a terrible thing to say, and I could be wrong, but I’ve not yet seen anything to suggest the necessary sanity to prevent such an atrocity is returning. (We still have the utter madness of “net zero”, the most costly public policy ever … which is unlikely to do anything for the climate. We saw the insanity of locking up the country and closing down the NHS, for a bug that was not a lot worse than flus we see every ten years. And now Ukraine. Common sense seems to have departed politics … and that seems to be heading us towards nuclear war)

So, unless things improve, we should expect a nuclear war as more likely than not. Or perhaps the “atrocity” is something else entirely … the only way to tell what the actual threat may be, is a time machine, something which I do not have.

But, it does seem that we ought to start preparing. I’m still struggling with that. The concept that we ought to prepare for something so terrible … surely it can’t happen … but people thought the same about Hitler, and they no doubt also thought “it can’t happen”, they thought the same about Mao, about the witch trials. They can and do happen. It is a matter of fact they can and do happen, and if, as seems to be the case, this is the time that another one is likely to happen, then the rational thing to do is to prepare.

How to prepare

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