Perhaps 3 years ago I bough an air fryer, the first new kitchen gadget I had bought in about 30 years. Although to be fair, about 10 years ago I bought a second hand thing for chopping nuts. Yes, I have bought replacements, and for example the replacement tumble drier was a condenser one rather than an air vent.
60 years ago there were no computers, no tumble driers, no double glazing, fitted carpets were rare. 40 years ago the first home computers were being used. Things were rapidly changing. But, by around 2000, almost everything we have now was already available. Laptops, electronic watches, tumble driers, flat screen TVs. Duvets. After a century of innovation, we started to see stagnation.
About the only significant change has been electric cars, a technology so unpopular that they can only get a few idiots to buy it using non-stop advertising. Advertising that will eventually have to end, because there are not enough fools to buy many more.
That is the difference. Last century was technology change driven by consumer demand. This century almost the only change is driven by lobbyists twisting the arm of government to force the more stupid parts of society to buy it.
And, that is now the defining feature of “new technology”. It is not technology change that the consumer wants, but change being forced on people by lobbyists trying to create a market for a product no one wants. It is “innovation” we could have done a century ago (there have always been electric cars), but it wasn’t done because the consumer did not want it.
That is because technology is now stagnating.
The only exception to that rule is within the computer screen. But, that is because computers are still relatively new. Rapidly, all that can be done will be done, and soon people will run out of new things worth doing on a computer and that too will stagnate.
Soon, the pretence of “upgrading” micro$oft will become obvious to most people, when their machine “slows down” and “requires” an “upgrade” which provides exactly the same facilities, just less the Micro$oft created block on performance unless you pay them the bribe of getting a “new” operating system.
People will discover that they can keep the same performance by never upgrading with another operating system and Micro$oft will be no more.
The old business model of forcing the consumer to ditch their old devices by the lure of “something better” is going to disappear, because there will be nothing better to offer. The only business model that will work, is repair, maintenance and replacement. More and more, consumers will want devices with long life and that can be repaired.
Patents
The problem with a patent, is that it only protects and invention for 25 years. That was perfectly good in the century of innovation, when 25 years later the technology was likely redundant. But, in the century of stagnation, anything new that does come along, is going to be the newest technology for a very long time. Which means it will pay to spend money on R&D, because innovation will be much rarer, but that also means those innovating will expect to get longer to recoup their costs.
Also, it will be increasingly difficult for anyone but the market integrated manufacturer to make money through innovation. Because the changes will be smaller and the distinction between “good” and “bad” innovation will require a detailed knowledge of the market. If you are not a manufacturer with close contact to customers, you are going to be left behind.
Complexity
The rule of innovation is that simple technology change wanted by the consumer comes first, followed by more and more complex technology wanted by the consumer, and finally technology change that the consumer does not want, but which is forced on them.
The low hanging fruit having already been picked, the main changes we will see this century are more complexity (both device complexity and complexity of devices tailored for very specific niche markets) and technology the consumer does not want (such as electric cars and more and more surveillance).
Why is technology stagnating?
The simple fact is all recent technology change is a result of the discovery and use of electricity. Once you have electricity you get cookers, microwaves, radios, telephone, TV computers, but once you have found all the simple uses for electricity, the only new uses are more complex uses. After a century of finding more and more complex uses, only in areas like gaming, is there still substantial room to explore even more complex uses. In most areas, the stimulus of innovation from the discovery of electricity has come to an end.