Ruminations on Eggsperts

There’s a post on Climate Etc. “Death of Expertise“. I’m not  commenting on this directly. Instead, I have a very simple question: what is an expert?
Two scales come to mind, the first is that in any given subject the probability that a person will be the source of the answer is greater than some arbitrary value. That value might be text books or google. The other scale is that in any given subject, the probability that the answer given by the expert is right is greater than some arbitrary value.
So, let us examine an uncontroversial subject on which there is a wide spread consensus 🙂 boiling eggs Continue reading

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Scienceofdoom:: Ghosts of Climates Past

uClimate.com is proving a real boom. I came across this article at Scienceofdoom. I can’t remember which way they swing on the debate, but the article is well written and a subject I’m interested in. Available at: http://scienceofdoom.com/2014/01/23/ghosts-of-climates-past-thirteen-terminator-ii/

Ghosts of Climates Past – Thirteen – Terminator II

January 23, 2014 by scienceofdoom

In Eleven – End of the Last Ice age we saw the sequence of events that led to the termination of the most recent ice age – Termination I.
The date of this event, the time when the termination began, was about 17.5-18.0 kyrs ago (note 1). We also saw that “rising solar insolation” couldn’t explain this. By way of illustration I produced some plots in Pop Quiz: End of An Ice Age – all from the last 100 yrs and asked readers to identify which one coincided with Termination I.
But this simple graph of insolation at 65ÂșN on July 1st summarizes the problem for the”classic version” (see Part Six – “Hypotheses Abound”) of the “Milankovitch theory” – in simple terms, if solar insolation at 18 kyrs ago caused the ice age to end, why didn’t the same or higher insolation at 100 kyrs, 80 kyrs, or from 60-30 kyrs cause the last ice age to end earlier:
TOA-insolation-65N-Jul1-last-180kyrs-499px
Figure 1 
And for a more visual demonstration of solar insolation changes in time, take a look at the Hövmoller plots in the comments of Part Eleven.
The other problem for the Milankovitch theory of ice age termination is the fact that southern hemisphere temperatures rose in advance of global temperatures. So the South led the globe out of the ice age. This is hard to explain if the cause of the last termination was melting northern hemisphere ice sheets. Take a look at Eleven – End of the Last Ice age.
Now we’ve quickly reviewed Termination I, let’s take a look at Termination II. This is the end of the penultimate ice age.
The traditional Milankovitch theory says that peak high latitude solar insolation around 127 kyrs BP was the trigger for the massive deglaciation that ended that earlier ice age.
The well-known SPECMAP dating of sea-level/ice-volume vs time has Termination II at 128 ± 3 kyrs BP. All is good.
Or is it?
Read More

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Overwhelmed by response!!!

I have been bowled over by the response to the survey. For example, I noticed a survey ID “501” had come in. By the time I get around to posting this it had risen:

Response summary
Total responses: 538
Full responses: 379
Incomplete responses: 159

Unfortunately, I can’t go into much detail about what I was expecting from the survey as that may bias the results.
But I can say the support is fantastic!
However, there was a slight glitch around 10-11am this morning (UK time). Ironically, this is when I ran a backup “just in case we lost answers”.

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Survey on participants of climate debate

The Scottish Climate & Energy Forum have been working to produce a survey on the background of participants in the climate debate. Now, after some excellent feedback, the survey is ready. The url is:

http://scef.org.uk/survey/index.php/868721/lang/en.

Please help us by filling in the survey and passing onto all those who are interested in climate on line.
The aim of the survey is to understand the nature and background of those interested in the climate debate on line. It will provide an invaluable insight into the education and work experience of participants, test the relevance of politics in forming views and assess employment and social factors for their relationship with views on climate.
regards,
Mike Haseler
Chairman

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History is written by the VICTORS!

They say history is written by the winners. But the Citizen News Media are beginning to dominate the internet. If this new CNM end up writing the history of the “climate wars”, does mean we are the winners?
Continue reading

Posted in Academia, History, Media | 4 Comments

Did Wikipedia editors kill the Guardian & Independent?

independentAndGuardianCirculation
With the rise of the internet, the mainstream Media are in long term decline as Citizen Scientists using Citizen News Media begin to dominate those Universal subjects like climate. But were they given a helping hand by the antics of Wikipedian editors? Continue reading

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Found: missing heat – but I'm leaving academics in the cold.

After a “And Then There’s Physics” article exchange about the “pause”, I got to thinking where I might find “the missing heat” – or as politicians would put it “the economy’s growing – it’s just we can’t see it”. In other words, I don’t hold much to hocus pocus science and post factum certainties that “it has been warming – we just can’t see it”.
But even so, I was thinking about where the missing heat could go, mainly as it’s also the potential cause of natural climate variation, and that does interest me.
Eventually I realised a potential solution, and working through the figures came up with about 2C as the scale of possible change with about 0.2C as a conservative figure on how much I might expect to have seen recent global temperature change.
So am I going to say? No! Continue reading

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Dear Jo, the sun: "it's really scary".

Dear Jo,
it is important you get this.
But first, I was delighted to hear about the baby. So, I will try to keep this short knowing you will be busy with the most important of things and are unlikely to get around to doing anything about it soon.
The drop in solar activity was going to become the next climate scare. I said I thought it was important to ensure that at least one politician was not caught up in the public scare that is likely to develop. You listened.
Today as I came down for breakfast my wife told me there was something I had to see on the BBC website. She said: “it’s really scary”, “it was no surprise, because it’s just what you’ve been saying”. And it was top news:-
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-25771510
I’ve also highlighted the likely connection to the 1690s famines – at the height of the Maunder minimum. The book the “Ill years” suggests that up to a quarter of Scotland’s population died. I cannot imagine this would not become a topic of discussion in the referendum debate. This may make this all the more of a scare in Scotland.
As such, I believe we will see a repeat of the global warming scare, in that a known problem of manageable proportions, become blown out of all proportion through lack of knowledge and media speculation fuelled by the desire of academics to obtain funding for research.
Mike

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The Truth about the Highland Clearances

Were the clearances or the improvements more significant in the creation of the deserted upland landscapes which exist all over Scotland? What are the most important benefits of the study of deserted settlements? By Mike Haseler as part of Glasgow University Archaeology course (Note this is long: on A4 it is 20 pages long)

Preamble

Fig 1: Cadet George Armstrong "Autie" Custer, c1859

Fig 1: Cadet George Armstrong “Autie” Custer, c1859

The Battle of Little Bighorn or Custer’s Last Stand is an iconic battle between the Europeans and native Americans. It was fought in June 1876 between the Sioux nation “Indians” or “native Americans” and the 7th Cavalry: a veteran organisation created after the American Civil war. General Custer was of immigrant German and English stock. (Wert 1996).

In 1887 Buffalo Bill took his wild west show to Great Britain in celebration of the Jubilee year of Queen Victoria. Performers re-enacted the riding of the Pony Express, Indian attacks on wagon trains, and stagecoach robberies. The show was said to end with a re-enactment of Custer’s Last Stand, in which Cody portrayed General Custer. 21 years later a group of boys went to a camp on Brownsea island under a famous veteran of the Boer War Named “Baden Powell”. He enhanced and honed his military scouting skills amidst the native Zulu in the early 1880s in the Natal province of South Africa. It was this native “Scouting” which so attracted the boys and the group became known as the “Boy Scouts” – a name earlier used in 1899 to describe Harry White, Buffalo Bill’s assistant. A couple of decades after BP led to the foundation in 1926 of the “Hitler Jugend Bund der deutschen Arbeiterjugend”, (Hitler Youth League of German Worker Youth), along similar lines to the Boy Scouts but viewed as providing a future “Aryan supermen” indoctrinated in racist anti-Semitism. As soon as Hitler took power in 1933, the persecution and exodus of Germany’s 525,000 Jews began followed by their mass murder.

In his paper “Agents of Dispossession and Acculturation. Edinburgh Accountants and the Highland Clearances”, Stephen Walker (2003) summed up the the clearances thus:

The mass clearance of people from the Highlands and Islands remains one of the most emotive episodes in the history of Scotland. The attempts by Highland landowners to forcibly evict whole rural communities and encourage their migration in order to make way for large sheep farms and deer forests “is one of the sorest, most painful, themes in modern Scottish history” (Richards, 2000, p. 3). In his comprehensive history of the region, Hunter asserts that the clearances were “the absolute nadir of the entire Highlands and Islands experience” (1999, pp. 13–14). The eviction of crofters and cottars from the late 18th to the late 19th century continues to fuel sentiments of anti-landlordism and revulsion against the principal perpetrators: they “rank with Glencoe and Culloden in the literature of condemnation. It is a subject which regularly raises the chant of ‘genocide’ ” (Richards, 2000, p. 4).

The genocide to which Richards & Walker referred, was persecution and mass murder of the Jews by the Nazis; a genocide without equal, but one that was preceded by many others before and after Custer. Following the defeat of the Nazis there were massive changes. Israel was formed, the old colonial empires were dismantled. Forced “westernisation” of indigenous groups such as the Australian Aborigines ended, apartheid disappeared in S. Africa. Soon the “culture of apology” became widespread: in 2006 the UK issued “statement of regret” over slavery, likewise the US House of representatives in 2008. The UK & Australian governments apologised c2010 for the forced removal of aborigine children. So it is no surprise that almost as soon as the new Scottish parliament opened, it debated the following motion:

That the Parliament expresses its deepest regret for the occurrence of the Highland Clearances and extends its hand in friendship and welcome to the descendants of the cleared people who reside outwith our shores. ( S1M-1004 Scottish Parliament 2000)

And those listening were left with little doubt that members saw the highland clearances as one of racist genocide:

there is no doubt that they happened and that they led to the destruction of the Highlands that Boswell and Johnson saw in their celebrated tour of the Hebrides. At the time of their visit to the north, that process was already in hand, but the clearances were responsible for its completion. … In other countries, the genocide and ethnic cleansing that has taken place, against the Indians in America and the Aborigines in Australia, was acknowledged long ago. Today, the time to acknowledge what happened to those who were cleared from the Highlands has come. (Fergus Ewing (SNP)) Continue reading

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Jo: global warming tide is not turning, it has turned!

Will the global warming scam go out in a fizzle or a pop? Will it die a quiet death or will the media turn on those who fed this story and tear them apart. We are about to find out!
On Sunday I woke up in the middle of the night and not being able to get back to sleep, I went online and to my surprise found of all things the most highly sceptical article in the Scotsman. Obviously I posted a few apt comments
Indeed, next day it turned out to be so vehemently anti-global warming that I felt that the article was too antagonist for some people on this blog and I closed the article for comments. Let me say that again: I closed discussions – not because me and my big mouth had said something far too provocative – but because the leading Scottish newspaper in what I have hitherto called “the banana republic of wind” was publishing sceptic views too provocative for my blog. Continue reading

Posted in Climate, Media | 9 Comments