Update from Ukraine 2023-06-22

Yesterday I finally went to check a (pro-Ukraine) map, to see what gains they were claiming. After a few minutes trying to find any changes, I finally spotted a couple. After thousands of deaths and huge equipment losses, Zelensky claims to have taken three small villages. However, I’m not sure if that is the true situation, as the fighting now appears to have moved forward into areas that are supposedly controlled by Zelensky. If so, the Russians aren’t saying anything.

But, it’s safe to say, that Zelensky’s first wave assault has got no-where. That might suggest they are now all but beat. But that may just be the impression the US wants the Russians to take. Zelensky cannot win a head on contest. He cannot win against the mass guns of Russia, where the US tech gimicks are all but useless. So, I think the US wants to draw Russia out and have a go at them in a “fair fight” … meaning an attempt at another Iraq.

There has certainly been a lot of obvious propaganda pushing the theme that Ukraine is nearly beat. So much, that someone is clearly pushing it out. So, this “Zelensky’s army is nearly beat” could all be a feint, to lure the Russians out of their strong defensive line, so as to get them mobile which would make them a lot more vulnerable to US weaponry … and presumably a US’ hidden reserves. As again, a lot of US propaganda which you’d use if you were trying to sneak in weaponry. But, then again, perhaps it’s a double bluff: US-Zelensky (aka USraine) is trying to pretend he is hiding weaponry, in order to desperately stop the Russians advancing, when the truth is USraine have no reserves at all.

Otherwise, there was a dearth of news yesterday. But that happens when both sides are clamping down and trying to stop the other side knowing what they know. And that is consistent with the type of information clampdown that precedes something large. But then again, perhaps after all the battles, USraine have had to retreat and just can’t launch more assaults.

Today, looking online, there has been a lot of missile activity over Ukraine. It seems that Zelensky’s  air defense system is near collapse. More suggestions that USraine moral is collapsing and Russian moral is very high. Russians are clearly delighted with their own performance and the way the defensive strategy is working.

Why did USraine fail?

I found these comments online. They seem to pretty well sum up a lot of the reasons for the failure of the USraine offensive.

🇷🇺🇺🇦 As the Ukrainian offensive begins to culminate well short of its intended objectives, Ukrainian channels have begun to analyze their failures and it provides an interesting insight into the operational difficulties the AFU now finds itself in. ZeRada has this to say:

1️⃣Complete absence of surprise effect. The APU went where they were expected. Why the hell did the speakers of the OP announce an offensive there in six months? The question is open.

2️⃣Mistakes in the general planning of the operation. Kharkov relaxed. The command expected that the battle of the Sea of Azov would be the same easy walk. There are no tactical surprises at all‼️

3️⃣Underestimation of the engineer-sapper training of the enemy. Conspiracy theorists even wrote that the Russian Armed Forces carried out mining covertly. This, of course, is nonsense. It’s just that even theoretically SUCH total mining was not calculated, although the Tsar trench was visible even from space.

4️⃣The RF Armed Forces were able to produce and accumulate a sufficient amount of guided weapons, both ground and air based. The equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine that passed the first minefields was met by Kornets and their counterparts.

5️⃣Echeloned EW front cover by the defenders. Combined-arms systems are also operating, and, which was completely unexpected, trench EW of the RF Armed Forces, which were not often seen before. The Armed Forces of Ukraine faced a loss of communication during the offensive, and FPV drones were ineffective.

6️⃣Massive use of guided bombs. Even at the stage of preparing the offensive, the Aerospace Forces knocked out warehouses and accumulations of equipment with UABs and KABs, preventing them from concentrating normally for a full-fledged strike. Residents of Berdyansk and Primorsk say that after the start of the Sushka offensive, they began to fly even more often. The Aerospace Forces do not spare for the key targets of planning bombs.

7️⃣ Alligators. Ka-52 are back in the game. Since the beginning of the great war, they have been written off by drone aficionados. But during the offensive, they were able to fully cover their troops, as if in a shooting range, knocking out the armored vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with impunity. Arestovich’s stories about 6 downed Alligats are not confirmed by anything at all, except for his and Malyar’s statements.

8️⃣Deficiency of air defense. A couple of months before the start of the offensive, the command of the Russian Federation declared the main priority of the radar and air defense systems of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. During this time, they managed to knock out a large number of complexes and their components. Therefore, when the offensive began, the infantry of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, on the contrary, was left without cover. During the Battle of the Sea of Azov, not a single helicopter was shot down.

9️⃣ The human factor. One and a half years of war are beginning to affect the quality of personnel. Mariupol and Bakhmut, Lisichansk and Severodonetsk, Marinka and Vuhledar – the Armed Forces of Ukraine have lost a huge number of military personnel, volunteers and ideological fighters. Tankers and attack aircraft, even trained in the West, but consisting of mobilized citizens simply do not want to die. They sometimes break and abandon equipment (as the world press wrote about), refuse to follow orders.

Any subsequent offensive actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine MUST take into account the above factors. Otherwise, this will continue to be not an offensive, but the destruction of our own troops.

This entry was posted in Ukraine. Bookmark the permalink.