Flying blind

Today I realised that the death rate in the UK, after being flat, had shown the first sign of going up. It now joins rising covid positives and hospitalisations on the way up.

Throughout the epidemic, I’ve always had an idea what was coming next, even if I didn’t fully appreciate the scale, because the epidemic got worse, then got better. It’s now very different. The level of infections has been fairly high and constant for some time, so that now almost half of all positive tests have occurred since the latest “epidemic” started (about August). So, this latest rise, is a rise on top of an already prolonged high. Moreover it is the end of a long trend of rise (since end of July).

I literally do not know what happens next … because the epidemic has stopped behaving according to any model I have of how an epidemic should behave.

Basically, all I can say is:

  1. it could have a small peak and go down as it’s been going long enough
  2. it could do what it has been doing and stay high for some time
  3. it could go up
  4. it could skyrocket up

But, what really worried me, was seeing that the epidemic, which had already spread to some areas in this current epidemic had spread again to the same areas. Yes, I was predicting multiple small epidemics so that areas were being reinfected, but I had hoped I wouldn’t see it, because that really seems to indicate seriously failing immunity. But maybe it doesn’t!

Is ADE occurring?

  1. There are clear signs of failing immunity
  2. There are clear signs that this is a trend
  3. We have tentative signs that more people are dying with the jab
  4. We have no signs that age adjusted mortality is greater for those with the jab


Immunity is failing, but there is insufficient evidence as yet to say that ADE is the cause.

The rise in all figures makes ADE more likely, but I think the worst case scenario of ADE is less likely than I originally thought. In terms of trend … inertia will keep the current trends going for a week but beyond that, but for the first time, I have no real idea what will happen next.

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