ADE – some positive thoughts

I’ve looked at the worst case scenarios, which are that up to 100% of those who had any jab will die and/or that substantial numbers will become too debilitated to work.

However, there is one big difference between ADE in the lab and ADE in a real population. And that is when lab animals get a vaccine, they are then exposed in a controlled way to new viruses. So there can be a long time when they don’t get exposure. In contrast, humans get haphazard exposure and unlike the lab animals, in real societies, the amount of exposure increases if there is falling immunity. That may be a very important differences if ADE is starting to occur.

The typical epidemic curves are shown below:

The first curve in April 2020 was a single rise in positives followed by a fall. We then see another clear rise and fall around January 2021 together with a more messy rise after Oct 2021 and the single peak followed by the continual level of positives after July 2021.

The numbers rise because more and more people get infected. They fall because more and more people get immunity … so don’t listen to the lies that: “you don’t get immunity” … the fact that the numbers fall, is proof that the population is getting immunity. (Although not immunity to all variants nor proof it lasts forever … but it usually does).

And, if we look at the regional cases in Scotland, we see that that constant high level of the whole UK is created from the combination of a series of localised mini epidemics:

These localised peaks are symptomatic of falling immunity. In other words, as immunity falls, the number of people who could get infected rise, which means the R number increases until it gets to a point that instead of covid cases reducing over time, that they tend to increase over time exponentially. Because each localised epidemic tends to be surrounded by areas that have recently had their own epidemic, the epidemics tend to occur in one area … then die out … and then they flare up again in an another area which hasn’t had an epidemic for a while. So, I predict that each locality will now start to see a series of peaks (as shown in Scotland) as immunity falls and a new group of people become available for covid to infect, the local epidemic increases local immunity and covid dies later … and then the cycle gets repeated when more people locally have become susceptible.

The key thing, is that in order for the numbers to fall once they have risen, there has to be an increase in immunity. This means that irrespective of the reason for falling immunity that is triggering this pattern of localised epidemics, that community immunity is being re-established during each mini outbreak.

This could be very hopeful news. If ADE occurs when immunity via the jab falls, and if we are seeing a form of ADE, then, it appears that although those jabbed may be more susceptible to covid than the unjabbed, the fall in the figures implies that they are getting immunity during these localised epidemics. Immunity isn’t disappearing entirely … which would seem to be a necessary condition for widespread deaths.

It is therefore possible, that through a total cockup for which no one deserves any credit, that we may be repairing the damage from ADE via these small epidemics. And, so long as we have this low level of covid infections, continuing, that even if the jab has damaged the immune system, the immune could be reset by the new infections.

However, if this low level of infection then disappears … so that a large number of people change from “net benefit” from the jab to “serious net harm”, without having their immune system reset by a new infection, we could see a situation like the lab animals who were not exposed to the virus for a while. So,  perhaps in 6-12 months time, if covid disappears for some time, when the last group of people to get the jab suddenly start being exposed to the new epidemic … they may have no immunity left and start dying in large numbers as covid comes back.

But, the one thing we do know from these mini epidemics, is that in some way those getting the infection are getting some kind of immunity. That is good news … that might stop … but at least we know that people who had the jab are still getting immunity and that is a hopeful sign.

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