Is our climate becoming more extreme? (Guest post)

[The following was moved from comments on I’ve got a little list because it was too long to include in the comments but merited being displayed]
Is our climate becoming more extreme? (by Paul Homewood)
There has been much discussion recently about “Climate Disruption” or “Global Weirding”. John Holdren has talked about “increases in floods, wildfires, droughts, heat waves and hurricanes” while Rajendra Pachauri says “Based on observation, we know that there will be more floods, more drought, more heat waves and more extreme precipitation events. These things are happening”.
Al Gore of course is quick to blame any extreme weather event on climate change. Even reputable climate scientists such as Katharine Hayhoe talk about Global Weirding:-
“Heavy rains, deep snowfalls, monster floods and killing droughts are signs of a new normal of extreme U.S. weather events fueled by climate change” scientists and government planners said on Wednesday.
“It’s a new normal and I really do think that global weirding is the best way to describe what we’re seeing,” climate scientist Katharine Hayhoe of Texas Tech University told reporters.”
But are we really seeing more extreme weather nowadays?
Our memory of events from years ago tends to blur into the mists of time. Furthermore the global nature of today’s news media often brings to our attention stories which we would not have even known about if they had happened decades ago. I have therefore put together the following record of extreme weather events from 1971, which I hope will provide a certain amount of perspective when looking at what is happening today. Why 1971? Quite simply it is 40 years ago, a nice round number, and of course, before the gradual rise in global temperatures began a few years later.
DROUGHTS
In the US there were several notable droughts in 1971:-
* Florida – The worst drought on record resulted in 400,000 acres of the Everglades burned by fires. (1)
* Texas – Worst drought since the 1950’s. (2)
* Maryland – The 1958-71 drought produced the largest recorded annual departures from average stream discharge. (3)
* California – The summer of 1971 was “extra hot and long. Rainfall did not completely wet the (tree) root zones the winter of 1971-72 (sic)”. The same report in 1978 stated “the rate of development (of dieback of tree limbs) has been accentuated in recent years”. (4)
* Hawaii – The drought on Maui was described as the worst in 22 years. (5)
* North Carolina – The Air Force Bombing Range Fire destroyed 29300 acres of forest. (6)
* Minnesota – The Little Sioux Fire destroyed 14000 acres following “a period of abnormally dry weather”. (7)
* In total there were 108398 wildfires in the US in 1971 affecting 4.2 million acres. ( Figures for 2010 were 71971 fires and 3.4 million acres). (7a)
In the rest of the world there many more:-
* Australia – In Victoria what was described as a severe drought began that would last to 1973. (8)
* Ethiopia – 1971 saw the start of a 2 year drought that would claim 300,000 lives. (9)
* Kenya – 150,000 people were affected in what was described in 2006 as even worse than the 2005 drought, itself one of the worst on record. (10)
* Sahel – Mali, Chad, Nigeria and Burkina were in the middle of a drought that lasted from 1967-88 and which was described in Nigeria as the worst since 1913. (11)
* Okinawa – Experienced the worst drought in history. (12)
* China – Much of Northern China was in the grip of what in Beijing was on record as the worst drought ever (before or since). (13)
* Afghanistan – This was the worst in the country’s history. (14)
* Iraq – This severe drought led to the mercury poisoning tragedy. Iran was also affected. No drought there has been as bad since. (15)
* India – The 1971-72 drought affected many states and ranked as the 5th worst since records began in 1876. (16)
* Argentina – The 1971 drought was worse than anything since. (17)
FLOODS
* North Vietnam – The Red River flood was an absolutely terrible disaster leaving 100,000 dead. It was listed by NOAA as one of the century’s top weather events and described as a 250 year event. (18)
* India – Orissa was hit by a cyclone which left 10,800 dead. (19). Also, in Central India the Bundelkhand district was hit by floods (which were followed in 1972 by droughts). (20)
* Malaysia – 32 people were killed and 180,000 affected in the Kuala Lumpur floods in the worst floods since 1926. (21)
* Australia – In January the Canberra flood claimed 7 lives followed a month later by floods in Victoria which were called a 100 year event. In Queensland every month from January to May saw major floods and significant flooding returned in December. (22) (23) (24)
* New Zealand – The New Plymouth area was hit by their worst ever flood after 11.4 inches of rain fell in 24 hours.(25)
* Brazil – 130 dead in Rio de Janeiro floods. (26)
* Quebec – Heavy rainfall caused a massive landslide at the village of Saint-Jean-Vianney, leaving 31 dead. (27)
* Spain – 19 died in floods in Barcelona after 308mm of rain in 24 hours. (28)
* USA – Alaska suffered a major flood, only exceeded by the 1986 flood in the last 50 years. (29)
* USA – In February significant flooding occurred in Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois and Wisconsin.(30)
* USA – In March Southeastern States were affected with Georgia recording record levels in some areas. (30)
* USA – May and June brought significant flooding to Utah, Idaho, Nebraska and Wyoming. The discharge from the Bear River in Utah was considered a 75 year event. (30)
* USA – Significant flooding hit Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia in June and July. (30)
* USA – In August Baltimore was struck by one of the most damaging thunderstorms in 50 years and 14 died from the resulting floods. (30)
* USA – Widespread flooding followed Tropical Storm Doria up the coast from North Carolina to Maine in August. Some streams in New Jersey and Pennsylvania registered record floods. (30)
* USA – Extended flooding occurred in September and October affecting Texas, Louisiana and Oklahoma. (30)
* USA – More significant flooding hits Oklahoma and Arkansas in December. (30)
HURRICANES, TORNADOES ETC.
* The Atlantic hurricane season was a “fairly active” one with several notable storms.(31)
* The strongest was Edith, a Category 5, which killed dozens in Nicaragua before turning north and hitting Louisiana. (31)
* Ginger is on record as the longest lasting Atlantic hurricane ever, or at least until the 1899 San Ciriaco hurricane was retroactively discovered to be longer. (31)
* An unnamed storm in August attained hurricane status further north than any other North Atlantic tropical cyclone. (31)
* Canada was unusually on the receiving end of the tail ends of 2 hurricanes, Beth and Doria which both caused huge amounts of damage from flooding. Both were listed by Natural Resources Canada among the 18 major hurricanes of the 20thC. (32)
* In the Pacific the hurricane season was above average with 18 named storms, 6 of which made landfall. This latter number is still the record for a season. (33)
* The typhoon season was also a busy one with 24 typhoons of which 6 were super typhoons. This compares to 7 typhoons including 2 super typhoons in 2010. The season had an extremely active start with a record number of storms before August. (34)
* Typhoon Rose left 130 dead in Hong Kong plus many more at sea. It was described by the Hong Kong Observatory as “one of the most intense and violent” to have affected Hong Kong. (34)
* Cyclone Althea hit Queensland as a Category 4 cyclone in December. Damage was extensive but would have been worse if it had not arrived at low tide. (35)
* The tornado season in the USA was also above average with 58 F3+ tornadoes ( compared to 39 in 2010). (36)
* The worst tornado outbreak occurred in the Mississippi Valley during 2 days in February. 19 tornadoes were spawned claiming 123 lives across 3 states. (37)
OTHER EVENTS
* The highest ever UK January temperature was recorded in Gwynedd at 65F. (38)
* In Canada the snowfall record for one season was set on Mount Copeland in British Columbia in the winter of 1971/72. (39)
* In the same winter Mount Baker in Washington broke the US record when 1122 inches fell. (40)
* Montreal’s “snowstorm of the century” left 17 dead with 70mph winds producing second storey drifts. (41)
* Texas and Oklahoma were hit by a giant blizzard which set the state record snow depth in Oklahoma of 36 inches. The National Weather Service in Amarillo lists this blizzard as one of the top 20 weather events in the Panhandle. (42) (43)
* Columbia suffered its worst winter in years resulting in economic losses of $150 million. To make matters worse heavy rains caused the two biggest rivers, the Magdalena and Cuca, to flood vast regions in the Central and Western parts of the country. (44)
* Most of the USA was colder than normal. 1971 nationally was the 36th coldest in the 20thC. (45)
Which year saw the more extreme weather, 1971 or 2010? Who can say. How can anyone compare the severity of, say, a hurricane with that of a drought? Or a flood with blizzard? Katharine Hayhoe complains that our weather is becoming unpredictable but surely it has ever been so. Perhaps we should really start worrying when we stop getting extreme weather events.
Paul Homewood
References
(1) http://tvnews.vanderbilt.edu/program.pl?ID=458001
(2) http://tvnews.vanderbilt.edu/program.pl?ID=457569
(3) http://md.water.usgs.gov/publications/wsp-2375/md-dc/md-dc-html.html
(4) http://joa.isa-arbor.com/request.asp?JournalID=1&ArticleID=1504&Type=2
(5) http://www.maui-lahaina-sun.com/strange-maui-drought.html
(6) http://fire.forestencyclopedia.net/p/p450/
(7) http://nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/597
(7a) http://www.nifc.gov/fireInfo/fireInfo_stats_totalFires.html
(8) http://catalogue.nla.gov.au/Record/2766420
(8a) http://www.abs.gov.au/Ausstats/abs@.nsf/0/068f13bccd03f27bca2569de001f1072?OpenDocument
(9) http://www.photius.com/countries/ethiopia/society/ethiopia_society_refugees_drought_a~170.html
(10) http://www.irinnews.org/report.aspx?ReportID=88067
(10a) http://www.alnap.org/pool/files/erd-3452-summary.pdf
(11) http://www.adf.gov/NDpart1-thedrought.pdf
(12) http://www.ideaconnection.com/solutions/611-Drought.html
(13) http://www.china-daily.org/Scientific-News/Beijing-case-of-the-worst-drought-in-40-years-more-than-a-thousand-people-drinking-water-2/
(13a) http://www.china.org.cn/environment/2011-01/24/content_21807550.htm
(14) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1971_in_Afghanistan
(15) http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/864801.stm
(15a) http://www.toxipedia.org/display/toxipedia/Mercury+Poisoning+in+Iraq+-+1971
(16) http://dspace.vidyanidhi.org.in:8080/dspace/bitstream/2009/951/3/UOH-1995-133-2.pdf
(17) http://www.marketwatch.com/story/argentina-declares-drought-emergency-bbc
(17a) http://www.usatoday.com/weather/drought/2009-01-23-argentina-drought_N.htm
(18) http://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/mysterious-flood-strikes-north-vietnam
(19) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1971_North_Indian_Ocean_cyclone_season#1971_Orissa_Cyclone
(20) http://bundelkhandinfo.org/general/climate/drought_flood.html
(21) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1971_Kuala_Lumpur_floods
(22) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1971_Canberra_flood
(23) http://www.egcma.com.au/file/Floods%20Week%203_EG%20News%2025%20July%202007.pdf
(24) http://www.bom.gov.au/hydro/flood/qld/fld_history/floodsum_1970.shtml
(25) http://www.newplymouthnz.com/AtoZOfCouncilServices/StormwaterandFloodProtection/FloodProtection/
(26) http://www.super70s.com/Super70s/Tech/Nature/Disasters/
(27) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saint-Jean-Vianney,_Quebec
(28) http://geographyfieldwork.com/ExtremeWeather.htm
(29) http://ak.water.usgs.gov/flood/2006August/index.php
(30) http://www.super70s.com/Super70s/Tech/Nature/Disasters/Floods/1971.asp
(31) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1971_Atlantic_hurricane_season
(32) http://atlas.nrcan.gc.ca/site/english/maps/environment/naturalhazards/naturalhazards1999/majorhurricanes/hurricanes_stats_new.html
(33) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1971_Pacific_hurricane_season
(34) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1971_Pacific_typhoon_season
(34a) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Pacific_typhoon_season
(35) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1970%E2%80%9371_Southern_Hemisphere_tropical_cyclone_season#1970.E2.80.9371_Southern_Hemisphere_tropical_cyclone_season
(36) http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/tornado/tornadotrend.jpg
(37) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/February_1971_Mississippi_Valley_tornado_outbreak
(38) http://www.torro.org.uk/site/maxtemps.php
(39) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_Weather_Extremes
(40) http://classic.mountainzone.com/news/99/bakerrecord.html
(41) http://www.ec.gc.ca/meteo-weather/default.asp?lang=En&n=6A4A3AC5-1
(42) http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ama/?n=top10_events
(43) http://newsok.com/journal-entries-remembering-the-blizzard-of-1971/article/3346008
(44) http://news.google.com/newspapers?id=gzNmAAAAIBAJ&sjid=8IoNAAAAIBAJ&pg=3825,2341650&dq=flood+colombia&hl=en
(45) http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cag3/na.html
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(Eco)scares we should take seriously

Here’s a quick list of scares that we really ought to have a closer look at:

  1. Anti-biotic feeding to cattle creating ideal conditions for the development of anti-biotic immune bacteria. If it wasn’t for anti-biotics, every class of primary children would likely have more than one person dying before the end of primary. Everyone would fear the simplest infection — the luxury of living without that fear is something I would like my children to have.
  2. Influenza or anti-biotic immune bacterial based pandemic. Flu, whilst amazingly mild because it was a replay of an earlier virus, swine flu proved that 1) we can’t stop flu, 2) vaccines aren’t widely available until 12 months after the event, 3) flu can kill in huge numbers. Likewise a bacterial based infection where the bacteria become anti-biotic immune and where it is easily spread and deadly (after enough latency to infect others)
  3. World population. On its own world population isn’t (yet) a problem, but it would make many other problems far more serious if they occurred.
  4. Declining soil fertility. The longer a soil is used, the less fertile it becomes. Continue reading
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Study: Biodegradable plastics could worsen global warming

Usually I don’t refer to “global warming could … ” stories, but this is a “… could global warming”, and as I was just commenting on recycling I thought it scraped through. I’ve long said that if people were really concerned about global warming, they wouldn’t recycle or compost, because the more carbon based food & plastics that get locked up in landfill, the less CO2 will get into the atmosphere. … it’s fantastic irony that those who do not recycle are “better” for the planet. Another fact that is eco-heresy!

RALEIGH, N.C. — New plastics designed to break down naturally have been hailed as environmentally friendly alternatives to traditional plastics. Instead of taking decades or even centuries to decompose, they vanish in a few years.
But new research at North Carolina State University suggests they may not be so green after all.
The study, led by NCSU doctoral student James Levis, found that biodegradable plastics can release large amounts of methane gas when they break down in landfills. Methane is one of the most problematic greenhouse gases, able to trap much more heat than carbon dioxide, making it a major contributor to global warming. (The Bulletin)

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The requirements for eco-scares

Eco scares are really like bush fires: you can set a lot of fires all the time, but only a few will really take hold. There are a few key conditions:

  1. Ignition: An initial trigger – often quite scientific
  2. Fuel: that there is sufficient concern – that the subject resonates with the public. I.e. Not “save the cold slimy fish species we eat” but “save the “nice cuddly polar bear”.
  3. Oxygen … the scare must attract publicity.
  4. Arsonists: aka the will to fan the flames: Continue reading
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Climate Thuggery

I found this interesting from http://chronicle.com/blogs/innovations/climate-thuggery/29919
July 29, 2011, 10:04 am
By Peter Wood
Is anthropogenic global warming (AGW) a valid scientific theory?  Is it well supported by the empirical data or is it mostly an artifact of computer modeling?  I don’t have answers to these questions.  I stand, rather, on the side of those who favor rigorous scientific inquiry, transparency, and openness.  I am not a climate scientist, but neither do I cede the whole matter of answering such questions to the designated experts.  Good science doesn’t limit itself to the views of narrow-cast specialists.  Valid observations, corrective criticism, competing hypotheses, and rigorous testing can and often do arise from other sources.
It surprises me, however, that proponents of AGW, or what might be called the climate orthodoxy section of AGW theory, often respond to criticism and dissent with a kind of fury.  Far from welcoming discussion, they seek to suppress it. In doing so they jeopardize both their own authority and the prestige of the scientific community. (read more)
(See also the related article by judith curry)

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I've got a little list

This is just a list of where the science now contradicts climate alarmism. I’m sure there’s more, but I just thought it would be interesting to see what I could remember. But first let’s outline the real scientific (not hearsay) evidence for manmade global warming Continue reading

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Andrew Turnbull: Even Darwin And Galileo Would Fail The BBC’s Latest Science Test

The Biased Broadcasting Company really have shot themselves in the foot with the Jones debacle and I’m in no mood to make excuses for that worthless bunch of hypocritical morons.
The simple fact is David Kelly died because the system was so one sided that a professional scientist who felt they had to go against the “consensus” and questioned the “unequivocal facts” of WMD felt their life was not worth living.
When the BBC fought to publicise the anti-consensus view that the weapons scientists and experts might be wrong, they were entirely right to do so. But now the foot is on the other shoe, and they find they wish to endorse that same expert/scientific consensus, suddenly its OK to squash evidence counter to that “overwhelming” consensus.
So when Andrew Turnbull illustrates the mess the BBC has got itself into by suggesting that even Darwin And Galileo Would Fail The BBC’s Latest Science Test, the real irony is not that the Biased Broadcasting Company are ignoring the fact most mainstay science started as “fringe views” rejected by the mainstay “experts”but that they are rejecting their own hard fought ethos because fundamentally there is no difference between a rules to limit reporting only the official “climate scientists” and those that will limit them to report only the official “weapons scientists”.
How could they be so stupid? How could they fight so hard to publish the views of someone like Dr Kelly’s and then fight so bitterly to be able to squash the views of someone like Dr Spencer whose work shows there is “no weather of mass destruction” (actually it’s much less heat trapping but … )
They may win a short term victory and be able to shut up the sceptics until the science supporting our view is overwhelming, but in the long run, this “gagging policy” will force the BBC to gag anyone who disagrees with any official “expert” just because they are official. If only the ghost of Dr Kelly’s would come back to haunt them.

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TOADS TO MUSSELS: A WORLD OF WARMING FIRSTS

I was attracted to read this article in the telegraph.com.au, because it sounded like  someone had produced a list of things that could actually be linked to global warming … and unlike climate alarmists, I like to read all the evidence and then sprout my opinion rather than just reading the evidence that happens to fit my opinion (but for economy I don’t read all the warmist carp).
How wrong I was!  … it was in fact a list mocking all the articles that have been claiming the “first casualty of global warming”. The very fact that people keep using the same phrase year after year after year proves beyond any doubt the shear scale of corrupt false propaganda there is on this subject. Who needs to prove them wrong when the warmist do such a good job to show up their corruption? There can only be one first and each new claim is essentially a rejection of all such previous claims as false.

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Ireland records coldest June and July in 50 years

So much for global warming! Ireland’s summer heatwave is still missing in action – and there’s no sign of it turning up anytime soon.
Experts at Met Eireann, the Irish state weather service, have confirmed the country has just experienced the coldest July in 50 years — this after a similar finding for June.
And there’s little sign of August being much better after the month began with widespread rain across the 32 counties. (Irish Central)

I’m really glad someone else has noticed, because my eldest son has been swearing blind its been warm, when I personally felt cold.
Somehow now the BBC have cleared themselves of any bias on global warming, I doubt this denialist-anti-science-mythology that it’s not hot will not make it onto the BBC!

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Peer review

I couldn’t help chuckling as first I read unrealclimate desperately trying to find some way to knock down the paper that proves their models are wrong.

The paper has been published in a journal called Remote sensing which is a fine journal for geographers, but it does not deal with atmospheric and climate science, and it is evident that this paper did not get an adequate peer review. It should not have been published.

Then what do I read next:

Gleason is questioned about the ridiculous 25% survival calculation in his paper; he’s asked why he could get clear pictures of whales, but not dead polar bears; he’s asked why his only photos appear to be manipulated; he’s asked whether he’s sure that the same dead polar bear wasn’t seen more than once. He’s also questioned on the “pal review” on this paper (Monnett’s wife was a reviewer). (Link)

Which just about sums up the whole distorted carnival. If you write something alarmist … no climate “scientists” will ever complain, (unless you aren’t alarmist enough). But if you write something scientific … then they’ll complain till kingdom come that it didn’t go through their buddy review.

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