This is why Scots will not be voting yes!

Yes Vandalism
Intimidation, violence and repression of any dissent – it sounds like some Nazi dictator. This however is the reality of the Scottish “independence” campaign. We haven’t yet got to Brown shirts roaming the street beating up anyone who disagrees with them, but as the article shows below, we are almost there. There are numerous reports of people intending to vote “no”, who are too afraid to say so in public for fear of what the yes camp will do. And there have been many accounts of violence. I cannot myself vouched for the authenticity of the story of a woman in a pub who was asked which way she would vote and when she said “No” was told “wrong answer” and punched, however the story rings true.
And yes, there is always violence – but in any other election the leaders have got together to condemn it and stopped it in the bud. But not this time. It just seems to get worse and worse and … well who knows what will happen after a “no” vote.
And you don’t just have to take my word for it. Here is a piece from the Dundee Courier, a paper which as far as I know has is not biased either way: Continue reading

Posted in Politics, Scotland | 3 Comments

In praise of Sceptics

I was reading a piece in the New York Post, Leo vs. science: vanishing evidence for climate change in which it highlighted the poor science in Leo DiCaprio’s campaign to persuade the world of the “carbon monster”, when I read this:

DiCaprio is an actor, not a scientist; it’s no real surprise that his film is sensationalistic and error-riddled. Other climate-change fantasists, who do have a scientific background, have far less excuse.

And yes! Isn’t it great being a sceptic. As we all know by now sceptics are almost all well trained engineers and scientists. Very experienced, very knowledgeable, well versed with the realities of: “in theory it works … but in practice it doesn’t”.
So, yes, when some actor who really hasn’t a clue about what they are talking about stands up, you’ve got to feel sorry for them. They just aren’t sceptics. They haven’t had our training our experience our cautious careful analytical approach that means we more often than not are right. (That’s being modest – particularly with people like Steve McIntyre!)
And now I’m researching outside climate again, I am beginning to see how the skills we sceptics have are so transferable and how the “sceptic” or perhaps “engineering” method of careful rigorous analysis pays dividends in all kinds of areas.
Sceptics are the unsung heroes of society and far too few of us blow our own trumpets because we are the engineers, the scientists you can trust. We are the accountants. We are really the backbone of society.
However, let’s not be too arrogant. A body is not all backbone and if the world were full of sceptics, imagine a world where the only TV were thoroughly researched documentaries full of caveats and statements of how little is actually known!!
Imagine Steve McIntyre and Anthony Watts in tight hose playing Hamlet.

To be or not to be that is the question?

Would be about as far as the play got before we started a detailed discourse about the evidence packed full of graphs explaining how this was not the question.
However, then again, imagine a world built by actors and academics. Bridges that are delights to the eye perfect examples of the latest research ideas – which cost a fortune, fail to do the basic job intended, and are so impossible to maintain, that they rust to pieces and fall down in a few years.

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The global warming rout

From the very first headline: “There Are Now 52 Explanations For The Pause In Global Warming” (Daily Caller), it was obvious that things are not going the zealot’s way. A quick scan now shows that the biggest story in the press is now  “the pause” replacing the quintessential “scientists say lesser spotted goat-toad threatened by global warming”, which used to feature heavily and is now entirely absent (today).
But the biggest change is the tone. Gone is the “great scientific authorities say”. Instead the news is now a confusing mismash of messages from which the public will take the message that “warming causes more snow” that there are only 52 excuses for the pause (which some still deny is happening) and that Paul Nurse is just a zealot trying to convince the world it is warming faster than ever. Continue reading

Posted in Academia, Fails, Goat Toads | 2 Comments

83AD Calgacus speaks to the Union for the Freedom of all Britain

I’ve been very surprised that no one seems to mentioned this really important speech by the first Briton of Scotland to have their words recorded almost 2000 years ago.
So, I thought I would introduce it to you and have reproduced the first section in full below. In it, Calgacus, a Caledonian (who probably lived somewhere near Inverness) is addressing his troops before the Battle of Mons Graupius fought against the Roman aggressor (or perhaps as we might now call them “EU”).
To set the scene. It is 83 or 84AD. For just over a century, the Romans had been steadily moving north, first through Gaul (France) and then through Britain enslaving whole populations. Not long before this battle, the Romans had brutally treated Boudica raping her daughters causing the Icenii revolt. And this Roman brutality was not reserved only for Britain. Like their treatment of the Icenii, in Palestine, the Romans had brutally killed or enslaved the whole population when they had risen up against them.
Now this horror had come to Northern Britain, driving before them a stream of refugees from the Roman empire who could recount these horrors in graphic details. Finally, they had reached Caledonia: literally “the last of the free”. And this was the last battle for British freedom, a huge battle and with some 50,000 combatants it is still arguably the largest battle on Scottish soil.
The Caledonian heartland was probably the fertile wheat growing plains of the Moray Firth. At first the Caledonians union had ventured out to confront the Romans, winning many victories and almost wiping out the Ninth Legion at a site near Brechin. But as the line of 1st century marching camps heading toward Elgin shows, the tables had been turned and now three Roman legions had pursed them back to their heartland.
From the speech we know this site was somewhere in view of the sea.  So, we can imagine the Caledonians, on a hill defending their territory (like Quarrelwood Hill beside Elgin which at the time was the only Road into Caledonia). Here some 30,000 people had formed a Union to stand up to the Roman army. Now with this union was in what was possibly its last fight, with the Roman army at their front a few miles across the level plain and the Roman fleet at their back on the sea behind them.
And this is what Calgacus said:
“Whenever I consider the origin of this war and the necessities of our position, I have a sure confidence that this day, and this union of yours, will be the beginning of freedom to the whole of Britain. To all of us slavery is a thing unknown; there are no lands beyond us, and even the sea is not safe, menaced as we are by a Roman fleet. And thus in war and battle, in which the brave find glory, even the coward will find safety. Former contests, in which, with varying fortune, the Romans were resisted, still left in us a last hope of succour, inasmuch as being the most renowned nation of Britain, dwelling in the very heart of the country, and out of sight of the shores of the conquered, we could keep even our eyes unpolluted by the contagion of slavery. To us who dwell on the uttermost confines of the earth and of freedom, this remote sanctuary of Britain’s glory has up to this time been a defence. Now, however, the furthest limits of Britain are thrown open, and the unknown always passes for the marvellous. But there are no tribes beyond us, nothing indeed but waves and rocks, and the yet more terrible Romans, from whose oppression escape is vainly sought by obedience and submission. Robbers of the world, having by their universal plunder exhausted the land, they rifle the deep. If the enemy be rich, they are rapacious; if he be poor, they lust for dominion; neither the east nor the west has been able to satisfy them. Alone among men they covet with equal eagerness poverty and riches. To robbery, slaughter, plunder, they give the lying name of empire; they make a solitude and call it peace.”
For more info on Mons Graupius see mons-graupius.co.uk

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Original sin – how it caused global warming

Looking at the latest global temperature on Roy Spencer’s graph, I was struck how half the graph is warmer than the rest. Zealots usually pick on this and ask “why have 9 out of the last 10 elections days been warmer than they were”, or some other meaningless statistic.
To which the obvious answer is this “because they were”. In the same way that today it is raining – can you explain why, today of all days it is raining? No! So, why expect me to explain why we just happen to have had one of the warmer decades – or why in the 1690s it was particularly cold in Scotland. Things do just happen.
Which reminded me of a quite insane belief in modern western thought that “everything has a cause”. This is not scientific (how could you possibly run an experiment to prove this), it isn’t even really a philosophical idea, instead it is more akin to a religious belief.
And I think it stems from the Christian idea of “original sin”. That is to say, all evil comes from sin, therefore anything wrong is “caused” by human actions.
Turn it around, and get people to believe something is “wrong” like the last decade of warmer temperatures, and people are led to believe there is a “cause” to this evil – which as it is evil, must be human sin. Continue reading

Posted in Climate, History, science | 1 Comment

Mann versus reality

After reading the WUWT, I wanted to summarise the my thoughts on Mann’s chances of wining the court case and how I think he’s either lost hold of reality and/or is surrounded by fair weather friends who don’t have his interests at heart.
However, what’s the point? He’s an idiot, an idiot who clearly doesn’t listen to good advice, so what can anything I write do but add to the din that he’s an idiot?
Now there’s yet another article about Mann at Judith Curry‘s – it’s like watching a slow car crash! The only person who’s going to get hurt (as all his fair weather friends turn on him) will be Michael. So, here’s my thoughts from this morning:
Just reading another article of yet another porky from Mann at WUWT and even if I hadn’t carefully checked the work on his hockey stick and convinced myself it was based on using a “trick” to get the data to create a hockey stick, I would by now know that Mann hasn’t a hope of winning.
Mann’s problem is this. His whole case is this:

“I’m a scientists so you can trust me … therefore to suggest I’ve been unscientific is libel”.

And because most lay people would find his science difficult to judge, a jury would likely accept he was a scientist and that the science was right if Mann could find even a few “scientists” to vouch for him. How can they judge the science? So even though Stern can bring in a lot of expects to show Mann’s science isn’t; in practice the jury will tend to ignore what it can’t just and instead look at who supports him.
However, that was a case based “I’m a trustworthy scientist”. But now Mann has been caught lying on his own court submissions numerous times. Lying to a court is something that is easy for the jury to understand and so something they will fix on and use to judge Mann.
So the argument;

“trust me I’m a scientist”

then becomes

“he isn’t trustworthy … so can’t be a scientist”

and Stern wins the case.
That may be an oversimplification – it may not even go to a jury – but judges are just as human. And in essence, once a jury or judge starts thinking of one side as “economical with the truth”, they are on the slippery slope and will inevitably lose unless they have an exceptionally strong case (and Michael does not).
However, I was also struck by Judith Curry’s comments on the case. And from what she has said, it is clear Mann has been saying very much the same kinds of things about all kinds of other people many who a jury would clearly call “scientists”. Unless I’m very mistaken, there’s no chance of those like Judith being caught lying in the way Mann has. So, what is sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander. If he libels others and expects to get away with it, he cannot himself ask a court to find others have libelled him.
So, in essence, when you boil this case down to the simple facts that would impress upon a jury it is this:
“A person shown to lie even on his own submission to the court, is complaining that someone has treated him in the way he treats other people of undoubtedly better character”.
He hasn’t a chance of winning. So why on earth is Mann so willingly submitting himself to a process which appears to have only one possible outcome? I can only imagine he is surrounded by sycophants and zealots who are so detached from the views of ordinary people outside that they really believe that “being right” (as they must see it) is a justification for all their ills.
In other words, you have a social group who all believes what Mann is doing is “right”, so they cannot entertain the idea that anyone “just” could see it any other way.
So, the big question is this: at what point will Mann realise that all these sycophants around him are delusional and in my view don’t care at all about him personally and therefore when he loses the case, as he surely will, they will turn against him?
And this is the point, I just hope his arrogance at his celebrity status hasn’t so corrupted him that he has driven away all his real friends.

Posted in Academia, Climate, Fails | 21 Comments

The pause deniers – still trying to read the entrails

I’ve been away from climate doing more important things. However, I still occasionally look in to see what’s going on.
And I can’t say the pause deniers look any better for being away. They are just incredible. In the face of concrete evidence that there is no warming, they continue with their insane rantings about “there’s hidden warming”.
And looking back, I remember one of the earliest conversations I had was when I said something like “you know, there’s been no warming in the last five years”. To a scientist that’s a fact – it’s a statement of what you get if you do a linear regression.
But to the pause deniers it was and always will be a heresy.
At times over the last – well it must be nearly a decade, I thought being a sceptic was a curse. We could understand how the data could never support any of the rubbish – but we just couldn’t get others to understand.
Now, I can see how it is a gift – we are gifted the ability to ignore the irrelevant connections and socially imposed “it must be’s” and we see what it is. That other people don’t see it our way – yes, it’s annoying, but I’d much rather be a sceptic than one of the old hags and soothsayers over at “AndThenThere” trying to devine the entrails of warming out of nothingness.

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Presentation at Liverpool University

Pooh and Piglet find tracks of the hefferlump and decide to follow them.

Pooh and Piglet find tracks of the heffalump and decide to follow them.


Last Friday, I finally gave my presentation to Liverpool University. Not on climate as you might expect, but on the famous battle of Mons Graupius between the Caledonians and Romans which as the evidence of 1st century dating of the line of camps in Northern Scotland tells us was in Moray (near Inverness).
Note, I’m not saying “may be” in Moray, but “was” in Moray**, because I’ve now rechecked all the available evidence for the line of marching camps heading north and far from being later (as is commonly suggested) the evidence only supports the campaign of Agricola (c83AD) and not the later campaign by Severus.
SurfaceGeology+3km+tracksThis means that the line of “dots” (red) for the Roman camps, can only have been from the Agricola campaign of which the Battle of Mons Graupius was the climax. And this battle is very likely to have taken place on the “flat” geology shown in black. This more or less validates the “turned” interpretation the Ptolemy map which gives the Northern Heartland of the Caledonians in the Moray Firth (the top left of the map).
This means that given all the evidence from Tacitus’ description of being in sight of the sea, on a plain etc. (i.e. in black areas to left), the only place that fits is somewhere on the coast around Elgin or onward to Inverness with Quarrelwood Hill (now Quarrywood Hill) just east of Elgin being by far the most likely site. Continue reading

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Israel a pariah State

If any other country had stolen the land on which it exists, had then incarcerated the previous inhabitants in a huge prison and then killed thousands of them for daring to resist their detention, the world would rightly have reacted. The US would have sent in war planes to stop the illegal and criminal occupation of foreign territory, etc., etc.
But when Israel does to the Palestinians what the Nazis did to the Jews, then the response from the US is:

That’s OK! Go ahead! Anihiliate the population at your will. The US supports the genercide!

Just in the most recent holocaust, the Jewish Nazis have killed 1000s and injured nearly 10,000 for what? The death of a few Israelis who the valiant palestinians try with lawful means UNDER INTERNATIONAL LAW to remove from occupied land.
And what is the Palestinian crime? To have built tunnels, firstly to break the illegal blockade of Gaza and secondly, to enforce its right under international law to have their land restored to them by the illegal occupiers.
Because, as far as I can see, Israel is an illegal state, and not only just illegal, but a racist, apartheid state. It has no right to exist except that of a bullyboy thug who has taken over land and now uses the law of jungle to say “I hold it so it is mine”.
The simple fact is that the “Jewish” right to a state in that area ceased around 70AD when the Romans terminated it. One can argue about that historical event, but one cannot argue that the Jewish state ended. Almost every other country has changed hands (INCLUDING ENGLAND) in that 2000 year period. Those who have a right to that land, are the Jewish, Greek, and Romans who stayed in palestine and no doubt largely make up the present palestinian population. In contrast, those with no rights are the European Jews who probably share no more DNA with the Jews of 2000 years ago than I do.
So, I am just dumbfounded that anyone ever gave this claim to a “Jewish state” any credence.
Worse, I think the injustice of supporting the Nazi-style regime in Israel which considers the deaths of 100s of palestinians to be less important than one single illegal occupier is perhaps the single most important reason for most recent terrorism and unrest from and in the middle east.

Posted in General, Politics | 7 Comments

Home to an earful on climate.

On my return from a holiday in Brittany, Paris, and canoeing down the Wye, I was catching up with an old friend when I experienced the strangest phenomenon:

someone going on at length to tell me how absurd the idea of global warming was.

Apparently, whilst I had been away the so called “science” and technology committee had produced another quintessential British whitewash of the IPCC …. but according to my friend “the only scientists on the committee disagree”. And as a physicist he was quite irate upset that the politicians were ignoring the lack of warming, the failed predictions, the money, politics. Continue reading

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