Scottish election alternative hypothesis

The libdem vote collapse UK wide, the Tories have long been a toxic brand in Scotland, so what marked out this last election was the collapse of the labour vote and the rise of the SNP.
The left one must understand is largely about “collective action” and opposed to people thinking for themselves. And it works so long as people have a common goal and purpose.
What I would like to suggest, is that the left of Scottish politics was not as unified as those south of the border would like on Scottish independence. (And a few other issues probably niggled). That the independence campaign effectively split the left between Unionist and independents.
Usually, these two got along quite happily – because if independence wasn’t an issue – there was little difference between being for the working class, and being for the working class of Scotland.
But the independence campaign must have created divisions. People who formerly worked well together must have found themselves at each other’s throat. And those who normally did not work together (the independence group) found themselves getting on well together.
As such, the campaign may have made a lot on the left realise that what mattered to them most was not “working class politics” but “Scottish politics” and the massive increase in membership of the SNP may well have been a huge chunk of the left upping sticks and moving to the SNP.
As a result of the shift in membership, they may in turn have caused the SNP to shift to the left.
In contrast, the same didn’t happen on the right. The Tories have always been obstinately Unionist to the extent that people like me can’t vote for them even if I voted no at the referendum.
The right wing of the SNP (tartan tories) was always divided from the right of the Unionist (and conservative party).
Alternative (repeat of my comment to StewGreen)

I remember when I first read opinion polls pointing to a large number of  SNP MPs – my thoughts were “that’s surprising” and then “it will be a reaction to the referendum” and I really didn’t see it as a big deal “serves them right” might also have crossed my mind.

The idea in that blog that it is somehow linked to the Iraq war is bizarre. Firstly the timing doesn’t fit because the effect would have happened long ago and secondly, I too was pretty annoyed with Blair, but it’s not something I think about any longer.

The best explanation I heard was from someone who said “the parties down south weren’t interested in the referendum until they thought they were going to lose the vote. Then they all turned up in droves, made all kinds of knee jerk promises – and then went home again after which the press and politicians went back to their old ways of ignoring Scotland.

On the one hand, the SNP campaign enthused a lot of people into action who were mild SNP voters. On the other hand, the sudden collapse of interest in Scotland after the campaign upset a lot of those who voted no.

What I think upset most people is the way the English politicians looked as if they couldn’t care (probably intending to suggest that England is doing Scotland a favour by allowing us in the Union). Then they totally switched like a lover on heat who wanted one thing – then it was wang bang thank you mam and they left having screwed us with some vague promises to “call sometime”.

In other words, I can’t see any policy driving this vote. Instead what I see is that having given Scotland the kind of media coverage that is normally exclusively reserved for those “south of the Oxbridge line” – the return to the usual appalling lack of media coverage or political interest in Scotland afterwards was all the bigger let down.

Alternative alternative hypothesis
Alex Salmond was less than an asset to the SNP. He was arrogant, smug and perhaps people were just fed up with him and … ready for a change.

Analysis for the future

The enthusiasm for the SNP after the referendum will be short-lived (easy come easy go). But that will be countered by almost endless appearances of SNP politicians on the BBC (supposedly speaking for Scotland – but in reality speaking for the few on Nicola’s sofa).
The divisions in Labour (if this hypothesis is true) are unlikely to heal quickly. The referendum will have created new fault lines, breaking up previous coalitions within the party and forming new ones. These won’t disappear in a few months – particularly if a lot of people have moved to the SNP and/or stopped being active in Labour.
Perhaps more importantly, the power in the Labour party has moved south cementing the “Branch office” status of Labour Scotland. More than anything that is likely to entrench the failure of Labour as a permanent dent in their support in Scotland. Yes, they will bounce back from the referendum, but I doubt this English party will ever again dominate Scottish politics in quite the same way.
The Unionist and Conservative party, will be arrogant and dismissive after the general election and referendum win. So, I have no doubt they will not do anything to address the long-term decline of the party in Scotland.
UKIP – not even worth discussing in a Scottish context except as a protest vote.
Greens – have lost their way. They may pick up disillusioned socialists from the big cities.
Lib Dems – paradoxically, they may be the party most likely to make a come back in Scotland. Not so much because people want to support them, but because there isn’t any other party many people can support.
Prediction for Scottish Election
Below is some stats listed as number of MSPs Predicted (change from last time)
If the UK election voting were repeated in Scotland this is how the parties would stand:

SNP 64 (+0)
Labour 31 (-7)
Unionist 19 (+4)
LibDem 10 (+5)
Others 4 (-1)

In other words, the SNP have not done any better than they did at the last Scottish election. What has actually happened if the vote is repeated is that labour have lost seven seats (possibly more because they tend to do well in a few seats). The Unionist and Tory vote goes up slightly as does the LibDem.
The others (Green, UKIP, Independent) are also very similar.
Was there really a big change in the Scottish vote?
One could argue that the Scottish electorate did nothing more than vote in the Westminster election in the way they voted in the Holyrood election. Indeed, if the general swing away from Labour to Tory is considered to also affect the Scottish vote, the biggest change was an INCREASE in support for LIB DEMS!
Indeed – perhaps the biggest change in the last election was not that the Scottish electorate changed their mind, but that:

1. We stopped listening to the English media telling us that we had to vote for English parties in the English election.
2. We increased support for Lib Dems
3.  But otherwise we saw the same general shift from Labour to Tory