Doug Brodie send an email “Dear campaigner/blogger, Scottish EET Security of Supply Inquiry The Scottish government’s Economy, Energy and Tourism Committee recently set up a Security of Supply Inquiry, inviting submissions. …”
Unfortunately I was busy but a few hours before the deadline I did manage to pen a very quick submission in about an hour explaining why the basis of the policy was bullshit:
I wish to make a submission regarding the policy goal of a “largely decarbonised electricity system”. This goal is premised on the belief that Carbon Dioxide, known until recently as a beneficial plant food and whose beneficial effects can be seen in increased harvests globally and generally greening of the planet, is somehow “dangerous”.
The reality is that this viewpoint is not supported by science except in so far as calculations based on the HITRAN database of spectral admission and absorption indicate that a doubling of CO2 is expected to warm. I am aware of two estimates for this warming. The first one of 0.6C is based on the HITRAN 2008 data (Hermann Harde) and another of 1.2C which is used by the IPCC is based on out of date data (HITRAN 1998).
This amount of warming is low enough that almost no serious commentators suggest the effects would be harmful. Therefore the science only supports the beneficial effects of CO2 both as a plant food and as modest warming.
In contrast, please note that cold is the most significant threat faced by us in the UK and in Scotland. This is shown by the 37,000 extra winter deaths (Healy) in the UK. This amounts to 1million since the global warming scare started in 1988. Also reports suggest up to a quarter of Scotland’s population died in the colder period of the 1690s leading directly to our loss of independence (Cullen). Even in India more people die in the winter than summer.
Therefore this policy of decarbonising the electricity based is not based on sound science.
Instead, it is based on highly speculative estimates of “Climate sensitivity” or “feedbacks”. Remarkably I was unable to find anyone in the group of experts working on these feedbacks who had any relevant qualification or experience on feedback in temperature systems. Instead, their estimates are based on the unsupported assumption that the warming in the 1970s to 1990s was driven by a coincidental rise in CO2.
But with little information on CO2 levels before 1958, the estimate of climate sensitivity is largely based on just 6.5 decades of measurements. However, of this 5.5 decades, the first decade (1960s-70s) was dominated by what is now referred to as the “Global cooling scare”. The last decade and a half by what has become known as “The Pause” (Haseler) with no significant rise in temperature (none according to RSS and no surface record has warmed at even the lowest predicted trend since 2001). Therefore only 3 out of these 5.5 decades shows the required warming that is necessary to support any positive feedback effect from CO2.
However, despite this appalling lack of evidence, various academics with no professional qualification, experience or skill in the area of “feedbacks” have falsely asserted they are “very confident” that there is massive positive feedbacks and therefore a very high climate sensitivity.
However, not only are these high climate sensitivities unscientific in nature, but they are unscientific in practice as they do not predict the climate as shown by the failure of all models to predict the pause. Therefore, rather than merely accepting the policy goal of “decarbonisation”, I would strongly advise the Scottish government to seek a second opinion.
The world may be the biggest “greenhouse” we experience, but it is nether-the-less, like any other greenhouse: a temperature stabilised system for which there is one group people who are undoubtedly qualified to assess it. These are the engineers who have experience of temperature systems with feedback. I therefore strongly suggest that rather than meekly accepting bad advice, you seek a second opinion from those with credible expertise, experience and skills in the area of feedback systems, temperature control or monitoring.
References
- Cullen, Karen (2010) Famine in Scotland – the ‘Ill Years’ of the 1690s; ISBN: 9780748638871
- Harde, Hermann (2014) Advanced Two-Layer ClimateModel for the Assessment of Global Warming by CO2; Open Journal of Atmospheric and Climate Change, Volume 1, Number 3, pp.1-50, 2014 [Online: http://www.scipublish.com/journals/ACC/papers/846]
- Harde, Hermann (2013) Radiation and Heat Transfer in the Atmosphere: A Comprehensive Approach on a Molecular Basis; International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, Volume 2013 (2013), Article ID 503727, 26 pages [Online: http://www.hindawi.com/journals/ijas/2013/503727/]
- Haseler, Mike (2009) Memorandum submitted by Mike Haseler (CRU 30) to House of Commons inquiry into Climategate. [Online: http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200910/cmselect/cmsctech/387b/387we32.htm]
- Healy, JD (2002) Excess winter mortality in Europe: a cross country analysis identifying key risk factors; J Epidemiol Community Health 2003;57:784-789 doi:10.1136/jech.57.10.784
