A remarkable event has occurred. “Global warming” the blue eyed boy of the politically correct and environmentalists has fallen down the ranking and behind the more scientific and impartial: “climate change”.
Above is a plot of the relative number of google searches for “Global warming” (blue) and “Climate change” (red).
Global warming is one of the early great causes on the internet, rising steadily for the first few years of recorded searches until it’s peak in 2007. Then almost as suddenly, it went into terminal decline which nothing but Climategate seemed to be able to altar. (Climategate can be recognised from the peak in “climate change”).
In contrast “Climate Change” has remained pretty level except for one event: Climategate. This suggests those with an interest in Climategate tend to favour “Climate change” rather than “Global warming” strongly suggesting that a change in the relative frequency indicates rising scepticism.
But there is also a strong yearly trend. One might think this is related to temperature but it is not. To understand this trend we fist need to recognise that the strongest pattern is one that fits with the academic year. The biggest drop is exactly when we’d expect the opposite: in the hottest part of the year. This corresponds to the long summer break away from PC indoctrination. The other big drop is Xmas/New Year which being observed at the same time across much of the world, also provides another strong dip. But other holidays are at different times, so if we look only at the English statistics below we can see a very distinct relationship to the academic year for both search terms:-
Now, because the English schools have pretty much the same holidays, we can not only spot the Easter breaks but even half term holidays. And looking below at the 90day trend we can see that globally the weekend is the time least people search for “Global Warming” or “Climate Change”. By my estimation (looking 2010-2015) searches for “global warming” fall to around a 1/5 their term time value in the summer, he figure is slightly less with “Climate change” with around 2/3. This suggests 80% of all “interest” in”global warming” and 66% of “interest” for “Climate Change” is generated directly by academics. And the fall in “Global Warming” at half terms indicates this indoctrination is occurring in Schools (Universities don’t have the same half terms). Talk about indoctrination!
The decline of Global warming
However, the key point of this article is that except for a very few blips, interest in “Global warming” has been declining whereas “climate change” has hardly changed. Since “Global Warming” is clearly the more PC term/alarmist term, it will (was) a momentous occasion when that threshold is crossed. So “when will or has ‘Global Warming’ dropped below ‘Climate Change’?”
Looking a the last 90 days, January 2015 starts with Global warming higher globally, and we are clearly heading toward parity with almost the same.
But if we look at the last 30 days we can see that March started with “Global Warming” just higher, with Global Warming higher on only 4 days out of 16 (25%) but it ends with “Global Warming” just lower than “Climate Change” so that …
Globally 9 out of the last 14 days (64%) “Global Warming” has been beaten by “Climate Change”.
Regional trends (Main English speaking
However, compiling the plot of English academic year, I noticed that this change has not been uniformly globally. So, below is the approximate dates at which “Global warming” became less important than “climate change” for various English speaking areas:
- 2008: Scotland
- 2009: Australia
- 2013: England, UK, Canada
- 2014: US, Philippines
- 2015: S.Africa?
- >2015: India (Still 4:1 in favour of “global warming”)
Now, the first shock for me is that Scotland isn’t down below India. Because generally those most zealous for the global warming fad tend to have the highest interest in “Global Warming”. So those India, S.Africa, etc. tend to where we now find the bigger interest in this issue, also tend to favour “global warming”.
My perception is that Scotland is amongst the most pigheadedly anti-industry/CO2 regimes in the world. So, was sure it would in amongst the “johnny come lately alarmists”. Apparently not.