For obvious reasons, what I see of the Ukrainian conflict is heavily contorted by both what the US and Russia are trying to get me to see. However, there are beginning to be signs, which I don’t think are likely to be the result of propaganda, that suggest the Ukrainian military, may be on the verge of collapse.
The logic for this is simple: Zelensky, like Hitler is the kind of military “genius” that you want leading the other side, and through his “genius” he has all but destroyed the Ukrainian army. In contrast, the Russians totally outgun Zelensky, and have been applying constant and/or systematic pressure on the Ukrainian forces and now they are showing signs of buckling almost across the entire front. Zelensky has thrown everything he has, no life mattered, no equipment was spared, and so he does not appear to have any reserve as his army runs out of men and equipment.
More importantly, the morale of his soldiers, that in the Autumn was lifted by the way the Russians gave ground in return for destroying Zelensky’s army, is now plummeting as the previous Russian advance turns to retreat.
However, perhaps, like the Russian “attack on Kiev” which was clearly a feint, the apparent collapse of the Ukrainians could be merely a Baldrick: “Cunning plan” … to lose in order to lure the Russians into a headlong rush, where upon the USians with some secret weapons and a hidden army will ambush the Russians and the evil witch will live happily ever after.
But at this stage, we aren’t even seeing the collapse of Zelensky’s army, so talk of what happens several weeks or months down the line is premature. The real question, is this: will the current rush of succeses for the Russians start to grow exponentially as the tide in the conflict turns or are they just small random victories in a very long campaign, that just happen to coincide?
ADDENDUM
Over the weekend we started hearing about the capture of the village of Kamenskoye on far eastern bank of the Dnieper reservoir. This was the first major movement I had seen in that part of the line for many months. But there have been many instances of small settlements changing hands (elsewhere), so, this could have been the result of many months of pressure leading to a decision to release one small parcel of land. But, then late today (23rd Jan) I read that the village of Stepnogorsk located 2 km beyond the village of Kamenskoye, had now been captured by the Russian Armed Forces.
In the past, there have been claims that some patch of land had been captured by the Russians, only for it all to go quiet and then a month or so later, a fresh claim that the same settlement had been (re)taken. So, once taken, it is possible that there is a counter-attack that retakes the parcel. However, when not only Kamenskoye, but also Stepnogorsk 2km on have been taken so quickly, it does indicate a more substantial change. That, together with the taking of Solidar and Artemovsk (Bakhmut) becoming nearly surrounded, does suggest the Russian advance is stepping up a gear.
