Finally, we’re getting the truth from the gov:
“Half of coronavirus cases in the UK are likely to occur over just three weeks, and the NHS does not have enough beds to cope with them, the chief medical officer has warned.”
“Depending on how high the peak, this could be anywhere from a rather bad winter for the NHS but in spring or summer for the NHS through to huge numbers way overtopping the ability of the NHS realistically to put everyone in beds and that obviously would have big pressures on the service,” he told the Health and Social Care Committee.”
Although his “overtopping the ability of the NHS” sounds like a gentle wave getting someone’s feet wet on the beach, if 4% of the population need hospitalisation, 80% get the infection and half get it in these critical three weeks we are talking ~1million patients.
There are something like 150,000 beds in the UK with suggestions that ~90% are occupied. If we assume an average hospital stay on 10 days, then there are up to 600,000 patients trying to fit in 150,000 beds or 4 patients to a bed.
But at least we are starting to get realistic numbers and there is obviously some thought going into them as:
Medical students could be asked to perform roles on hospitals normally done by doctors, in the event of a coronavirus epidemic
