Prediction: Strong La Nina

Posted on 25 May 2016 by Scottish-Sceptic

As many will already know, the predicted El Nino has come and gone and far from seeing a “step up” in global temperatures as the idiots predicted, as I predicted we have seen a faster than expected drop in El Nino conditions.
Now, I am predicting a stronger than normal La Nina.
As far as I am aware, for most people the effects of a La Nina are far less problematic than El Nino, so quite rightly there will be little concern if we get strong La Nina conditions. It will of course annoy the hell out of the idiots who pushing global warming propaganda, but almost all science and all factual evidence annoys them.
What would be expected is that global temperatures will see a strong decline over the next 5-10 years (that is to say, in the short term the decline should be strong enough to dominate over other natural variations and produce a significant downward trend). Then at some point we’ll see the development of more El Nino conditions and predictions then become problematic – that is to say, I need to know more about the way the climate functions to predict further out.
Paradoxically, whilst (I anticipate) global temperature will be in its least exciting phase, I would suggest we will learn more in the next 10-20 years about the way our climate works than all the “knowledge” presented in all the IPCC reports (which is not a lot – because they leave out all the science to present pure propaganda).
But who am I kidding? Climate academics are amongst the biggest idiots on the planet. So all I can really say is that I expect to learn far more about climate in the next 10-20 years than I have ever learnt from any IPCC report.

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18 Responses to Prediction: Strong La Nina

  1. A.D. Everard says:
    28 May 2016 at 02:20

    Scientific thinkers will all learn much in the coming decade or so. Most climate academics, NOT being scientific thinkers, will continue to bitch and moan about why no one listens to them anymore, especially when they keep to their catastrophic meme and never ever admit to making any sort of mistake – ever. I expect much entertainment ahead.

  2. Scottish Sceptic says:
    28 May 2016 at 08:41

    I’m not saying we will learn much: it’s just that for the next 20 years there are good reasons to believe there are strong downward pressures on global temperature. That will give us the first real idea of the relative scale of the various effects (and so far the pause is showing that CO2 was not the control knob the eco-activist idiots asserted it was).
    But more important, we’ll get to see what happens when the temperature changes, and that in itself will be a sort of “smoking gun” drawing us toward the source of the control. And better still, it will give us some ideas on what to look for to predict future climate change.
    But in terms of knowing about the climate, it will only be like going from an exam score of 0.5 out of 10 to 1.5 out of ten. We’ll still be pretty clueless about most of what affects our climate, but we’ll know a lot more than we do now.

  3. A.D. Everard says:
    28 May 2016 at 19:52

    It seems to me that this whole “Let’s Blame Man” game has drawn a lot of genuine thinkers into looking at real causes, whereas left to their own devices, the climate academics and other alarmists would look no further. They have their reason for it all pre-decided and would be happily tearing down civilization to punish us all rather than examine further. Punish being the operative word, it’s all about our perceived sins.
    But science continues on underneath it all – just not done by most of the climate mob – and perhaps is why it feels like we’re learning much (that probably just means that I am learning much). 🙂
    I agree with you that we are heading into a colder climate, hopefully not for a long time, and while the general population will wake up to some truths, I expect the alarmists to still blame mankind and continue to rant and rage against civilization and progress – all while using the tools and toys of civilization and progress.
    Astounding, isn’t it.

  4. Scottish Sceptic says:
    29 May 2016 at 22:42

    Any idiot can explain a trend over a short period by falsely connecting it to something else with a trend and then scaling one to the other. But it is a lot more difficult to explain a turning point. That is one of the reasons they deny the pause – they cannot explain it.

  6. The Editor says:
    2 June 2016 at 05:59

    1
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    it is not possible to post more than about twelve line reply,
    because the “Post Comment” button then disappears off
    the bottom of the screen.
    🙁

  7. Scottish Sceptic says:
    2 June 2016 at 09:53

    Thanks. I’ve tried all the simple things I can do and I now need to do something pretty dramatic to “reboot” the system. I’m tied up with other things at the moment until June23rd so I won’t have time till to do something major till then.

  8. The Editor says:
    2 June 2016 at 18:13

    OK that’s fine.
    I draw peoples attention to the recent expansive ENSO article at WUWT,
    where I posted the same charts in the comments that I intended folks in
    here to see. They illustrate how quickly the ENSO flips, and that it may
    be the strength or the lack of strength of the S. American deep cold
    current which emerges at the coast and dissipates the ocean heat.
    What controls this current, we don’t really know.
    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/05/30/may-2016-enso-update-the-201516-el-nino-has-reached-its-end/#comment-2226247

  9. Scottish Sceptic says:
    3 June 2016 at 07:33

    Yes, I was impressed with the number of Articles on El Nino (although less on La Nina). However, I wouldn’t focus too much on any particular current, because the S.American current appears to me to be rather like the white crest of the wave – yes it’s the most obvious event, but without the whole wave you don’t get the crest.
    So, the bigger question is what is the cause of the underlying phenomenon. My gut feeling with these things is that they are an instability in the climatic system which effectively amplifies environmental noise – so that there isn’t any real “cause” so much as a lot of butterflies flapping their wings.
    However, I also suspect that there is some kind of “knob” that affects the scale and/or duration. My aim now is to work out how that “knob” manifests itself, and hopefully if there’s been enough measurements something will jump out at me when I go back to it.

  10. The Editor says:
    3 June 2016 at 12:59

    The upwelling process along the coast of Peru. A thermocline and a nutricline separate …
    (Encyclopædia Britannica)
    http://media-2.web.britannica.com/eb-media/70/3170-004-E05204B0.jpg
    difference in thickness of underlying layer – ? cause ?

  11. The Editor says:
    3 June 2016 at 13:10

    Cold underlying slug moves, depending on time of year, and IMHO must be solar related somehow. Variations, extreme el Nino, more concern than “usual rhythm”. What exacerbates and amplifies, and cause irregular event? Peruvian fisherman have known it for centuries. Man made CO2 didn’t do it for sure.

  12. The Editor says:
    3 June 2016 at 13:16

    Cold slug fed by Humbolt Current coming from Antarctic. Could it be – more ice in Antarctic cause somehow more severe swings – variation of Humbolt and build up to big el Nino over several seasons? “scientists” are too busy rentseeking to look. Such research – not CO2 related – attracts meagre funding.

  13. Scottish Sceptic says:
    3 June 2016 at 14:13

    “Too busy rentseeking” – I totally agree.
    Enso is almost certainly the result of positive feedback(s) in the ocean currents-climatic interaction. In other words El Nino tends to enhance El Nino – and likewise La Nina tends to enhance La Nina. This means that relatively small effects can “trigger” either event – akin to the “butterfly effect” where small levels of chaos are amplified to large scale chaos.
    Which implies that if you look for causation – you should eventually get back where you started – so El Nino – is the cause of El Nino!

  14. The Editor says:
    3 June 2016 at 14:47

    I like this explanation by unbiased NOAA scientist, David B Enfield, written originally before CO2 mummery. No mention is made of CO2 controlled CAGW. ENSO consist of 3 parts which are stochastic- el Nino, SO, Kelvin Wave. interaction is unpredictable.
    http://ow.ly/DUqc300Ta5T

  15. Scottish Sceptic says:
    3 June 2016 at 18:43

    On the climate v. weather – as far as I’m concerned there is no difference except that climate tends to be used for long-term changes and more global whereas weather is more local and short-term.
    But there is fundamentally nothing different scientifically in saying “The climate in Britain is changeable today” or “The weather in Britain is changeable today” it’s just people prefer to use one word when describing some aspects of the weather/climate and climate for others.

  16. The Editor says:
    3 June 2016 at 21:12

    You overlooked the links, yes? It’s easy to miss.
    It only seems like that is the “Climate” page,
    but actually a page of that author’s contributions.
    Do click each link below the chart of the world.
    See the “Kelvin wave” link first to read about that,
    Then the “El Niño” link to read about that part.
    They are inter-related as David B Enfield explains.
    Actually he didn’t contribute much to “Climate Article”,
    and that was mostly written by others, including :
    Roger A. Pielke, T.N. Krishnamurti, & even Hubert Lamb !

  17. Scottish Sceptic says:
    4 June 2016 at 10:17

    The problem with most descriptions of El Nino – is that they treat it as a discrete event – as departure from “normal”. As we know by now “normality” is a lie in terms of climate, because it is constantly changing at all levels and time periods.
    And as a result the descriptions seldom give the relative timing of features nor how they change from La Nina through to El Nino.
    Unfortunately, we’ve not had many “cycles” to study with a lot of detail- so, we don’t know what details are “connected” to the event and which are incidental. Hopefully when we enter La Nina there’ll be enough to make it worth having a detailed look.

  18. Pingback: La Nina cooling is coming – colder January forecast | Scottish Sceptic

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