If anyone wonders why I'm not mentioning the falling temperature

The reason is that it was largely predictable (This year global cooling) so when Anthony writes: Met Office Data Confirms Record Drop Of Global Temperatures I’m thinking: “why are people getting excited … it was so predictable”…
The El Nino was predictable in the sense that we saw it growing large and so as they last a finite time, the timing and scale of the fall could be predicted (but see end).
What is far less predictable is the following La Nina. It may not happen at all, it may be fairly small, or it may be a whopper of a La Nina. If I had to bet, I would say that the cooling from the La Nina would be longer and/or deeper than normal. In part that is because I think cooling is more likely than warming at the moment. And indeed, if the La Nina lasts long enough, and we get underlying cooling, we may never really exist the La Nina,  but instead find ourself in another “Pause”, whereby overall cooling and Post La Nina warming are countering each other, but at a lower temperature than has been prevalent these last two decades.
Warning: Mother nature just abhors predictability as such anyone who tries to predict the climate will very soon be proved wrong. So, these predictions are not “what will happen”, but instead “what is marginally more likely to happen – and we could easily see both cooling and warming far greater in scale than the predictable effects”

Addendum

According to Enso predictions, we are “turning” the corner and about to start coming out of La Nina. If the predictions are right, this move back to normal should be apparent by February. There, if we see a deepening La Nina by February-March it is indicative of a deeper or longer La Nina than “usual”.

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What is the answer to this question?

I read an email stating: “every question has an answer”. To which I responded:

“What then is the answer to this question?”

As I can’t think of a way to answer, one way out is to say: there is no answer” … which means that if I’m correct, I’ve given an answer, which means that answer is wrong. This proves there must be some kind of answer.
 

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£318billion – let's fund the NHS instead

During the Brexit campaign, the campaign highlighted the cost of the EU (£350million) and suggested that rather than funding Eurocrats, we should focus on our own NHS.  Now we learn that not £318million but £318billion of our money is being wasted on climate policies whose effect (when rounded to the nearest 1/10 of a degree) is to stop global warming by 0.0C. That’s right! Even using the discredited models of the alarmists, the effect is so small that no one will notice.
And it will undoubtedly be far worse in Scotland where are banana republic politicians swallow global warming pseudo-science with a relish.
Highlights from the Daily Mail

  • The radical shift to green, renewable energy will have cost £319bn by 2030
  • The huge sum is three times the annual NHS budget for England
  • The policy will be adding an average burden of £584 a year to every household by 2020 and £875 by 2030

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4021200/Hot-air-Bombshell-report-shows-green-levies-backed-government-cost-economy-319bn-2030.html
This climate scam is undoubtedly the most expensive non-war policy disaster the world has ever seen. As has been said many times, even on the alarmists own figures, the costs massively outweigh the benefits.
And next year, when Trump takes office, we will see the climate swamp drained, and there’s no doubt that what we find at the bottom will smell to high heaven of corruption, not just involving academics but also the “media” who overwhelmingly have taken the side of the corrupt against altruistic people like me. People who have worked for free for the good of humanity, only to be ignored or worse attacked by the media peddling lies from those with their snouts deep in the trough of public money.
Mike

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Today's News?

As I’ve stopped watching the #BiasedBroadcastCoy and find ITV and Channel 4 to be regurgitating pretty much the same material, so I’ve been searching around for a more impartial source of news … one that doesn’t send me lurching for the off button within seconds of turning it on.
This week I found an interesting channel called “UKColumn” on Youtube which on the day I found it seemed to be really good – as the day I looked they had a lead article on climate:

However, since then I’ve tried watching them and I find myself falling asleep as they have a very slow delivery for a massive 40-50minuts, it’s entertaining for a bit but all I’m really doing is replacing biased BBC opinions for ones biased against them with a very slow delivery of only 4-5 “news” articles a day.
Also, it doesn’t in any way cover anything in Scotland.
So I was trying to work out what it would take to produce news for Scotland. My guess is that even a very quick summary would take several hours. But the first problem is identifying what is “news”. So, today’s exercise is to identify the items that may be considered news today:

  1. UK Supreme court – the ongoing case.
  2. Trump appointment of EPA – the implications for global warming alarmism
  3. Scottish “Curriculum for excellence” failing – the way yet more political interference is destroying our education system in Scotland
  4. Facial reconstruction of Robert the Bruce:
  5. Death of Mark Griffin MSP – not that I know anything more than he died.
  6. Child abusers in sport – coming up a lot
  7. Late trains – Labour in Scotland have been running a campaign
  8. £13.6 million to establish new Wellcome Research Centre

This is an interesting Video:


PLEASE ADD ANY CURRENT NEWS STORIES (not necessarily Scottish, British or even in English)

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When attacking the global warming scam becomes "politically correct".

I hate bandwagoneering politicians who will jump on a cause just to serve their own careers. So, I respect someone who sincerely believes global warming is an issue, far far far more than someone who seeing the tide in turning in the US, suddenly starts speaking out against global warming.
However… looking at the news today, I see that there are now two types of articles:
The numpties: Guardian, Independent – who are rattling on about the impending danger the the accelerating global warming as they have throughout the pause.
The new “political consensus” which is to attack global warming. About half of which I recognise, and half of which seems to me to be “Johny come lately”. I won’t name names, as I can’t be certain which have always held their views and just now feel they can speak out, and which are just using the change in tide to try to ingratiate themselves with the new administration.
Obviously, I think bandwagoneers are pretty despicable people, but they are an important barometer of “what’s in” in politics – and clearly many former pro-alarmists are now in the process of changing their colours (at least for the next four years).

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A colour map of temperature change

(Howgraph-2-2 SkepticalScience views global warming – one way only)I don’t usually deign to ever use the GISS “temperature” graph because it’s fraudulent. However, when I saw a graph of temperature trend on WUWT
I immediately realised that whoever wrote the article failed to understand the nature of natural variation. They had produced a plot showing the trend on GISS giving a colour for the trend over different periods. And had plotted the colour by the mid date of the trend (X-Axis) and length of the trend (Y-axis) and produced this (right):
But because most of what we are seeing is natural variation, and a variation of 40years is as likely as 20 years is as likely as one over 10 years. The way they had put the graphic together meant that the colour scheme was overwhelmingly dominated by the long term noise (25+ years).
So I wondered what it would look like if I used a log scale. The following was produced simply by scaling the above graph – doubling the scale for every halving of period (I stopped increasing the scale of shorter periods when it appeared to have no detail).
Also, as I’m not just going to print fraudulent material on my blog, I’ve cooled the trends by about ~0.3 (which mainly impacts the perception of the longer term trends)

temp1 Discussion

The average length when the scale is on this logarithmic format is around 5years. And not surprisingly there is almost no sign of any warming or cooling trends below 5year. Indeed, I’m surprised how regularly we change fro blue to red.
It’s then apparent that around periods of 5-10 years we start to see repeated periods of green (virtually the only part of the plot)
However, now I look, as we move up the plot, the size of the peaks get larger. So a change in trend lacks prominence at the bottom, whereas a 1 year trend over 1 year should be as prominent as a 40yr trend over 40 years. So, as it’s late, I’ve quickly used a distort to create an image where the variations in trend have roughly similar prominence irrespective of their length and this produces the image below.
curl1Now the question I’m asking myself is “why does the image move from a region of rapid climate change over periods of less than 5year, to one with very low rates of climate change over periods longer than 5years

Time for bed

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2017: The year of the climate scandals

A while back I produced this image of a dinosaur:

An overview of the political process from Climategate to present.

An overview of the political process from Climategate to present.


We can time the instant that kick from Climategate will reach the “Brain” it will be:

Friday, 20th January 2017.

The day Trump, the US’s 45th president will be sworn in at noon on the steps of the U.S. Capital.
What is even better, is that far from arriving out of the blue, the Climategate establishment can see the pain coming, they know what is going to happen when Tump comes in and with the Senate and Congress being controlled by Republicans, they know there is nothing they can do about it except squeal.
underarockOf course, the corruption we see and know about right now, will be nothing as compared to what will be revealed when Trump’s appointees lift the lid on these organisations which for so long have festered under corrupt Democrat rule. And no doubt with a favourable president, Congress and Senate will help out. Indeed, the 20th January 2017, may see a “Black Friday” rush of Republican politicians eager to make their name by “draining the swamp” to reveal the corruption of the Democrats – so long protected against investigation by a corrupt Democrat president.
I fully expect a series of scandals … and they have got to happen quickly so as to ensure the blame is put fairly and squarely on the previous administration where it belongs.

2017 will be the year of the climate scandal.

And it will not just affect the US. Because although the US is the head of the global warming scam, the body lies in other places like the UK & Australia. And just as those in the US can do nothing but watch “retribution coming down upon them” … likewise those in the UK and Australia who have so long enjoyed the luxury of throwing vile made-up insults against sceptics whilst totally protected by the establishment (e.g. Nurse, Lewandowsky) can now look forward to being exposed and ridiculed for what they really are and there will be little their friends in the establishment can do about it.

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The Autistic nature of Academia

I have spent much of the last years trying to understand why it is that academics fail to understand the nature of the global temperature signal, whereas most engineers and those of a pragmatic nature who have studied the subject find themselves … let’s just say sceptical of the academic viewpoint.
In the past I’ve tried to explain this difference through a mechanistic approach: that academics do not encounter the same real world problems with the same real world knowledge, so when presented with a real world problem with real world noise & “natural variation”, they have no relevant skills or experience to draw on and so fail to recognise the true complexity of the situation. But I’m beginning to suspect a psychosurgical deficiency in the way academia behaves which is akin to autism.
Last night after watching a film on AI, I was discussing possible alternative strategies for developing AI with my wife in which I asserted that perhaps the biggest block to AI, was that academic researchers are trying to mimic their own “intelligence”. In other words, they may be basing their views on the false premise that what they perceive as “themselves” is “intelligent”. And the reason they cannot see beyond the idea of an “intelligent self” – is that they are falsely arrogant of their own abilities. (Without going into details, it would be like a kid using a calculator. Is the kid with the calculator “intelligent” – just because they come up with the right answers. Therefore is the academic who merely draws from the accumulated knowledge to answer a question really “intelligent”?)
Then afterwards I started researching Maasai group marriage traditions, and reading the academic papers I found the same kinds of “holier than thou” attitude in which those papers were trying to explain why the Maasai were not monogamous “like us”. I was just trying to understand – without allowing my own prejudices to get in the way – why group-marriage was the preferred system of the Maasai. But the academics appeared to want to explain why the Maasai “weren’t like us”.
My question: “what do the Maasai themselves think about group marriage versus monogamy”
Academic question: “why do the Maasai practice group marriage (with the implication they should be monogamous)”?
And, I am finding this more and more: academics are not asking the questions that I want to have answered. They simply either are not interested, or perhaps more accurately, do not understand the types of questions I ask. What is going on here? Continue reading

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The death of the expert

Whenever someone challenges me for not believing in this or that “expert” I have a simple response:

“I’m an expert on experts – I’ve written a book** on the subject and trust me, you can’t believe experts”

Of course, if I am an expert as I say, then my expert opinion means that they should believe me. Which means that they should not trust experts like me. Which means they should not believe me. Which means they should trust experts like me …
However, the deeper question is why am I an expert merely by publishing a book? The answer is that in the past, if you did publish a serious book, it meant that some big publisher had read your content and thought you worthy of publishing. In other words, publishers were deciding who was and was not an “expert”.
Likewise, if a TV program wanted to have an “expert”, a journalist would ring around a few of his buddies from School (Eton) or University (Oxbridge) and whilst it was unlikely that any had actually studied the subject themselves – as long as they had a degree which sounded vaguely relevant, they could pontificate on the subject and fool the audience enough to pass as “an expert”. An again, the people who were acting as “gatekeepers” to this class of “experts” were the universities  who accredited them as academics and journalists. So, e.g. an “expert” from Oxbridge was worth more than an “expert” from hull – even if the hull “expert” had actually studied the subject – because the University itself gave a kudos to people.

The High cost of being an expert in the past

Before the internet, in order to be an expert in a subject, you needed access to the very latest research in the subject, that meant buying all the latest books written by others interested in the subject and subscribing to the journals and as such you needed a deep pocket. Almost no individual became an expert using their own money. Instead, they belonged to some organisation – usually a University (paid for by the public) and they used their privileged access to increase their own knowledge immeasurably beyond that of the general public.

Then along came the internet … and we all could become experts

But when the internet came along, anyone with an interest could read and write on a subject at almost no cost. Suddenly, instead of having to have shelf loads of highly expensive books and subscriptions to very expensive journals … almost all the information start to appear on the internet and the general public, with an interest in any subject, could very quickly become as expert. Indeed – due to the knowledge on the internet, and the ability to focus on just one small area – those on the internet could become more expert in any specific subject than the academics.
That was bad enough … but because internet experts do not spend their time just talking to those in the same peer group … because we are not immersed in an “ivory tower” world where we only talk to other ivory towers, we tend engage with people at all levels of knowledge, and so are inherently better at communicating our ideas to other similar people on the internet. And unlike an academic who is forced to teach dumb students and sick to death repeating the subject … experts on the internet are experts through interest and so they write with enthusiasm … not lecture down to people because they are paid to lecture.

It’s not the death of “expertise”, instead it’s the death of a different social class called “experts”

As a journalist – with no expertise – the change is inexplicable. A few years ago, their friend let’s call him Paul (a biologist) could be hauled on the BBC to discuss climate change and no one would complain. But now, as soon as they put this “expert” on the screen, even though his expertise has not changed at all – indeed he’s even read a book on the subject++ – there are howls of protests. Why don’t people believe the “experts” any longer?
The answer, is that there are now thousands, even tens of thousands of experts on the internet with more knowledge than their friend Paul. Paul hasn’t changed, instead the audience is now filled with experts quite capable of taking on their friend Paul in an argument and tearing the opinionated-third-rate-scientist-who-only-gets-on-the-BBC-because-he’s-a-chum-of-the-editor to pieces.
And indeed, even someone who knows less than Paul (which is difficult) knows they can find experts who do know more than Paul discussing the subject on the internet and because they can see a range of experts, they can see Paul’s clear political bias and lack of any real knowledge to back up his views.
Paul is no less of an expert than ever. Paul is no more biased in his views. He’s no more keen to “science-wash” his eco-politics and present his views as science to the public.
The difference is that the public, thanks to the internet, are now far more informed, better at telling who is and who is not an expert, and is sick to death with people like the BBC passing of third rate knowledge and biased opinions – which wouldn’t last a few minutes on the internet – as “experts”.


**The Academic Ape: Instinctive aggression and boundary enforcing behaviour in academia. Available for kindle at a price from Amazon or for free
++Likely “an introduction to climate alarmism for undergraduates”
 

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Sexual partners: a mathematical conundrum

I came across this “fact”:

According to the 2010 Health Survey for England, the mean number of sexual partners is 9.3 for men and 4.7 for women.

…. obviously men are just more promiscuous than women … but with whom?

Please explain!


Text:
When asked about the number of opposite sex partners they had had altogether in their life so far, men reported a mean of 9.3 female sexual partners, while women reported a lower number, a mean of 4.7 male sexual partners. The majority of participants indicated that they were certain of the number of opposite sex partners they had had, but 33% of men and 17% of women said that the number was an estimate. More women than men reported having sexual intercourse with only one partner of the opposite sex in their lifetime (24% of women compared with 17% of men), and conversely more men than women reported having sexual intercourse with ten or more partners of the opposite sex (27% of men and 13% of women).
 

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