Early this year I was confidently saying: “Prediction: Strong La Nina“. Then in late September as NOAA called off their “La Nina watch” I was beginning to think I might have to change my views.
Of course, as La Nina conditions tends to make hurricanes more likely, I can’t help noting that on 2nd September the US had Hurricane Hermine – and how convenient it was for NOAA to say “it wasn’t due to La Nina conditions” in an election year.
And let’s be blunt – NOAA and NASA now have form for changing data to fabricate the trends they want – so why not fabricate an ENSO trend just for the election?? (At least until the election)
Now, however, I note NOAA have again had to admit that conditions are moving toward La Nina which following a strong El Nino, suggests this La Nina will be stronger and/or longer than “normal”.
What does this mean for UK?

In summary given the ENSO situation coupled with our historical data a mixed winter looks likely with a range of weather possible. That may seem like a bit of a ‘easy way out’ in forecasting terms but given the current guidance there isn’t a lot to go on. Our data at least points to January as being the most likely month for cold weather but it is entirely possible late December may prove cold as well. Equally December could prove a milder and more unsettled month with February perhaps turning out drier with a mixture of warm and cold temperatures. As ever there are many days and weeks before winter starts and we’ll be updating on the run in once more data becomes available or indeed more clear.

For a full description CW Weather (Note this was written when NOAA had dismissed another La Nina)
Also, based on my own analysis and similar changes to the Atlantic East coast as Pacific, there is a potential (but not prediction) for higher precipitation than normal.
However the forecast for summer 2017 is not good because La Nina conditions are associated with poor summers in the UK. And rather than building up this summer and peaking this autumn as usual, the effect has been delayed (due to the strong El Nino?) and so the La Nina effect looks most likely to peak in Autumn 2017 – suggesting a long build up over early 2017 and so it will have the greatest effects in summer 2017 … and I assume extending into winter 2017.

For days now, twitter has been filled with SNP stooges accusing Westminster of the vilest insults of “racism” and “xenophobia” for merely suggesting that they might compile a list of all foreign workers who would be affected by the change in their right to work in the UK all egged on by Nicola Sturgeon

Scottish firms which ignore new UK rules on revealing how many foreign workers they hire have been told they will have the backing of Nicola Sturgeon. The First Minister says she will stand “full square behind” any Scots company which snubs the new rules unveiled by Home Secretary Amber Rudd this week amid claims of racism.

Referring to the idea of a list of foreign workers she said:

Well, I think it’s about time the Tories stood up and said this, that it’s definitely something they will not ever do because it would be downright disgraceful and disgusting, and this government would have absolutely nothing to do with it.”

Read more

And it’s not just Sturgeon:
SNP MP evokes Nazi persecution poem in attack on Tory Brexit
Pete Wishart, who represents Perth and Perthshire North, appeared to make comparisons between Nazi Germany and Brexit Britain in a tweet.

First they came for the berry farm workers. Then they came for the Drs. Next they came for the ….. #toryBrexit #yourUK

— Pete Wishart (@PeteWishart) October 4, 2016

He referenced Martin Niemoller’s poem about persecution in the Third Reich as he reacted to comments made from Conservative ministers during their conference.
And true to form, the SNP drones were quickly out in force attacking the English & English establishment for their supposed Holocaust Nazi style attack on foreigners for compiling a list of foreigner’s names:

#indyref2 #brexit #peace #itsallgonepetetong #toriesout #horrificshit #wtf #Scotland #indynow pic.twitter.com/Qr1Igc4PVz

— niki (@niki500) October 7, 2016

#brokentogether: When they came for those on the list, I did nothing.#indyref2: for a list free society https://t.co/HYKEwjOUK6 — Bert Logan (@2p3rf3ct) October 9, 2016

However, after all these vile anti-English insults accusing anyone and everyone south of the border of being “Xenophobes”, “racists”, “bigots” etc. …. after all this hate speech against the English for considering compiling a list of foreigners…
What do we now hear? … that the SNP have compiled just such a list, without any consent of parliament either Scottish or UK, without the consent of those asked, contrary to UK data protection laws, that far from just thinking about creating the list  … that they have sent out letters to everyone, passed on personal details (again contrary to UK data protection laws), used it to stoke up fear (contrary to UK terrorism law?) … etc. etc.

Nicola Sturgeon’s ‘secret EU foreigner list’ sparks immigration diplomacy row

This is just classic SNP tactics: they pretend to be against racism & xenophobia and then their drone like army of supporters goes out to attack everything English for merely thinking about compiling a list … when the SNP hypocrites have already done it themselves.
Sturgeon, by the logic of her own vile Xenophobic propaganda machine …. is a xenophobe and racist just for compiling the list … and so by the logic of her own propaganda machine, she is unfit for government.

Just go, before you do Scotland more damage.

I am astonished at the corrupt US legal system in which certain people in public office, by virtue of being in control of who gets investigated and those doing the investigation, are immune from prosecution.
We often hear the word “corruption” used on the internet, but usually in the sense of “politically corrupt” – that is, saying one thing and doing another or trading political (i.e. PARTY) favours. But what the Clintons have been doing is literally criminally corrupt they are the one’s benefiting financially – and it just beggars belief that she is not being prosecuted – let alone standing for President. What can people in the US  be thinking? Surely given how widespread their behaviour – it must have been known by almost every senior Democrat that Clinton is unfit for government.
She’s not just dishonest, but there is not overwhelming evidence she (or those close to her) have acted criminally – and who is the person who decides who gets investigated? She is –  she is the one who decides she gets away with it.

And it gets worse. You’d think that lying under oath would have been enough to bring her down, but there appears to be plenty of evidence the “Clinton foundation” is an organisation used to channel bribes to the Clintons and to syphon off $billions to the Clintons. As the Haitian president said, of the Billions that the world gave the Clinton foundation to help Haiti after the earthquake: “not even 2% went to Haiti”. That is appalling!
Like Trump or loath him, the truth is he’s way better than Clinton – and if you vote Clinton don’t ever complain about corrupt government because you just voted for one.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=phKO2T2pMjM

CLINTON CASH OFFICIAL DOCUMENTARY MOVIE ( FULL )
https://youtu.be/7LYRUOd_QoM

Trump, like Farage, like Boris Johnson, like an increasing number of politicians, represents a class that the media and most politicians hate: those who speak up for the concerns and interests of ordinary people which the political elite have long kept repressed.
As such, there’s little doubt that the initial reaction to President Trump will be like that of our own hissy fit Sturgeon who finding out that the people had voted against her wishes for Brexit then went on a month long rant about how she was going to stop the people having their wish to leave the parasitic EU (although obviously she didn’t quite put it that way).
So, the immediate aftermath of president Trump is going to be hilarious. All the PC nutters will …  go bonkers … blow their fuses … generally huff and puff …. and demand a recount (where only they and their chums get to vote).
However, after the fun we have the serious issues. What would a Trump Presidency look like.

PC (Political Correctness = press conformist)

The one thing Trump doesn’t do is PC, and that is why all those PC-fascists forcing their nutter ideas on the public, will be flipping their lids.Whether it is global warming, Gay rights, sex “equality” (but note it’s only when it benefits women), or whatever, Trump is not going to be over concerned to open the door and listen to them.
The main effect, is going to be a loss of public money syphoned to the parasitic PC-fascist organisations who previously kept themselves well paid by threatening any politician with bad publicity who did not roll over and do their bidding.
So, watch out for the dying squeals as like a bagpipe being sat on – the wind goes out of these PC-fascists!

UK Trade Deals

The election of Mr Trump is likely to help Britain as it seeks to strike a trade deal with America in a post-Brexit world. Trump was a big supporter of Brexit and said that Britain would not be “at the back of the queue” for a trade deal with the US.
And as the Express goes on: “In many ways, Mr Trump may get on well with Britain’s new eccentric Foreign Minister Boris Johnson who was the figurehead of the Brexit campaign.”
(Sturgeon is going to hate this – Britain doing well from Brexit!)

Foreign Policy

Mr Trump supports warmer relations with Russia’s strongman President Vladimir Putin and I doubt he will be very warm to all those PC nutters who run the EU. According to the Express: ” Trump has prompted concerns among security ‘experts’ by making comments that seem to indicate tolerance of Russia’s aggression in Eastern Europe” – these are undoubtedly the same “‘experts” who predicted the demise of the British economy post Brexit! However, it does seem likely that Trump will be in favour of the Russians securing control over Russian speaking areas of Ukraine – in return for dealing with ISIS.
Trump has said he might leave NATO unless it reforms. He appears to be in favour of action against ISIS (but changes his mind a lot). Like “Mexico paying for the wall”, he favours the Saudis paying to combat ISIS (which is fair as they use money earned from us from oil to fund Islamic groups and stir up problems as well as funding subversive groups that interfere a lot in US and UK politics).

Immigration

Everyone knows there is already a border fence between the US and Mexico, so I can’t see why anyone but a PC nutter of a immigrant “pimp” would be fussed by strengthening it. But the key point here, is that once President Trump allocates money to strengthen the boarder – he then makes boarder control a profitable enterprise. And having pulled the plug on many of the parasitic organisations that push for increased immigration – this change in finding will change the balance of the public debate, not just in the US but also in the UK (the next target for “tighter security”?).
Whilst it may seem a small change, the effect of so much money ($12billion is being discussed) – like the similar vicious cycle of wind funding wind lobbyists to push wind, the creation of “wall lobbyists” pushing for “tighter border security” could relatively quickly totally change the public perception of how to treat illegal immigrants.

US Economic Policy

Firstly, Trump is going to be a lot less sympathetic to US debt than any recent predecessor. This invariably means a reduction in the public spend. High in the list of useless spending is the nonsense on climate. But generally, it will likely this will mean dramatic cuts in many agencies and many branches of government (getting rid of admin overheads is the first thing any businessman does). It will also mean the end of US spend on anything frivolous (like the daft Paris climate “deal”). However, the US can’t possibly pay back their deficit unless they start growing their own economy. He has hinted this will start by utilising their fossil fuel reserves. As such, we are likely to see the price of energy globally dropping.

The Effect on Scotland

With the (anti-fossil fuel) SNP being so reliant on high oil prices to fund their “separation under EU chains” promise, the election of President Trump will effectively be the end of that dream (nightmare),  not only for Trumps term as president, but when Americans see the benefit of this pro-fossil fuel policy, the US push to export fossil fuels will drop the price of energy for many years effectively taking separation off the political agenda in Scotland and making the SNP a useless appendage to Scottish politics.
But not only SNP politicians will face job losses, with so many jobs still being dependent on the North Sea – and therefore on high oil prices – the election of Trump and lower energy prices, will effectively end the dominance of North Sea Oil and dramatically reduce revenue in Scotland.
It seems likely that Aberdeen will collapse as an oil producing region. Fracking could have replaced that – but the insane SNP are against the only way to save all those energy jobs. And with the increasing cost of energy (relative to the rest of the world) in Scotland due to the insane wind policy – we’ll see less and less heavy industry as it moves to places with cheaper energy (the US?). And  …with that insane wind policy destroying the Scottish scenery – and the Trump led return to common sense over climate, not only will those bird-mincers we have mean we’ll see fewer and fewer tourists(and birds, and bats), but without the need for wind created by the daft NOAA, NASA and pushed through at Paris, there will be no one to sell this appalling expensive folly of a energy source to.
And with the SNP still obsessed with giving away our fishing to Europe .., well can anyone tell me anything that Scotland is good for?
However, on the positive side – immigration into Scotland will not be a problem -because we’ll all be wanting to leave – particularly if we were mad enough to rejoin EU (and EU mad enough to have us). Although if we did join EU there might be some business reconstructing Hadrian’s wall to keep the daft Scots who voted to leave the prosperous UK north of the border?

The end of the illusion that Politicians cannot be prosecuted

For reasons that are pretty obvious, politicians of all parties are against politicians being prosecuted for the crimes they commit. So, e.g. if I organised to bring 10 illegal immigrants into the UK – that would be illegal, and if found out, I would undoubtedly (??may not??) serve a prison sentence. But if a politician organises for 10million illegal immigrants to come into our country – that is not deemed a crime at all.
Likewise, on climate. If NASA, NOAA and the UK Met Office fraudulently produce data to alter the apparent “rate of change” – in the same way as a banker fraudulently changed the LIBOR rate – that apparently is not criminal. Nor is the BBC breaking its charter obligation, nor is slander and hate speech by politicians using phrases like “denier”.
In other words, politicians and big “establishment” organisations have thought themselves above the law – laws that only apply to plebs like you and me and not the establishment elite.
But Trump owes the political establishment nothing. If Klinton has broken the law, if NASA are fraudulently producing climate data, if the EPA broke the US constitution … why shouldn’t Trump prosecute them for their crimes?
But, once we in the UK, see that public officials can be prosecuted in the US (and undoubtedly it will be juicy, because they never thought they’d ever face the repercussions … so they won’t have been careful) … there will be similar calls in the UK for prosecutions. It may well be that Blair finally sees the inside of prison. That those in the BBC who routinely break their Charter obligations find there is legal redress for us ordinary plebs. That not only climategate, but Hillsborough and many similar “inquiries” get opened up and those responsible end up going to prison. Merely because President Trump got elected.
You can see why the establishment, the PC-fascists, the eco-fascists, the XXX right fascists, the …. every fascist is against Trump. Indeed, when we look back in a few decades time … it may well be deemed as the end of the “PC-era”?

Guardian: ‘I’m a gentleman’: Trump “menaces” Clinton with imposing presence and brash insults 
Seriously? That’s their big headline after the debate! To portray their supposed “president Klinton” as a victim threatened by Trump saying:

“No, I’m a gentleman, Hillary, go ahead.”

What will their next headline be? Trump accused of Fascist Sexism by opening door for Klinton (who from all accounts would stumble through it).
BBC: “US presidential debate: Trump launches ferocious attack on Clintons”.

“There’s never been anybody in the history of politics that has been so abusive to women,” he said.
Hillary Clinton refused to address his comments about her husband.

And no mention of that Trump would jail Clinton for illegally withholding emails in clear contradiction to explicit instructions when she took the job.
Independent: “Bill Clinton remains stony faced as Donald Trump brings up rape claims“.

“It’s just awfully good that someone with the temperament of Donald Trump is not in charge of the law in our country.”
“Because you’d be in jail,” he quipped back, to the biggest reaction of the night from the live studio audience

Over the last years there’s been a clear consistent message coming from the US: those agencies like NOAA, NASA, EPA, etc. can break the law with impunity because they are protected by the president.
So, when I started hearing the Clinton had likewise broken the law and as far as I can see, intentionally hid emails, I was not surprised that rather than being prosecuted for what appears to be a clear cut case of breaking the law … she was running for president.
And, like the tip of the ice-berg the amount of corruption that I could see in the US, must only be the tip of the ice-berg. So, I can understand why many Republicans are against Trump – because when you have corruption in government – it usually involves all parties.
But last night, Trump said that if he were president, he’d jail Clinton. What is extraordinary here – is not that someone who broke the law will be facing a real investigation intending to convict her (if the evidence points that way – as it does), but that a high profile politician is subject to the same laws and same penalties as the lowly people they lord it over.
And that will be a huge shock to politicians – not only democrats who have had their nose so deep in the trough during Obama’s monarchy – but also republicans – who clearly assumed that when they got their man in – they’d have their turn at the trough.
But … if there’s anyone who’ll be burning their emails today in one huge metaphorical bonfire … it’ll be NASA, NOAA, EPA, Michael Mann, Hansen and all those others who have escaped investigation for the global warming scam under Obama.
Addendum
Croinies – was a typo – but I like the way it is half way between croney and coin-ies.

For years, the press have been more or less able to determine which politicians got elected and what their policies would be. As such the felt they could attack anyone they didn’t like with impunity as they would never get power and never be able to seek retribution.
Then along came the internet … and with an alternative avenue to hear what was really being said … the public stopped being so gullible and started questioning what the “experts” in the press told us.
However, when you’re a politician who is almost universally hated by the media for not bowing down to their PC dogma (Press conformist??) how do you get publicity?
The answer appears simple – you just do and say anything that outrages the indignant PC crowd – who then go nuts in the media and blogosphere – allowing us all to know what has been said. Not because we ourselves heard the original comments, but because the PC-nutter bloggers and journalists go on endlessly about how much they are offended – and the rest of us think: GOOD!
Indeed, it is now getting to the stage, that the more you can offend the idiot arrogant PC-nutter journalists and bloggers – the more chance you have of being elected!

The rise of the internet

Before the internet, not only did I have less “flow” of novel “(PC) non-conformist” ideas, but when I did develop such ideas, because the press largely controlled what we heard, people like me (and that means everyone)  inevitably felt we were the only person whose ideas did not conform and therefore accepted the rejection of our ideas by the press as not being accepted by wider “society”.
But after the internet, my views of what “wider society thought” was no longer constrained to what the press wanted us to hear. Not only was I exposed to ideas that the press hate, but I began to realise that those ideas I adopted were also held by many other sane sensible people (and we ordinary people  are clearly not the bigots, xenophobes or whatever other vile stereotype the press uses to repress any ideas the plebs have which they dislike).
So, through the internet, I realised that the reason my views weren’t being heard in the media, was not because I was a “lone wolf” (for over half the country appears to be a “lone wolf” on Brexit) but instead it was because of the vile anti-free speech actions of the press relentlessly attacking and repressing any who didn’t accept the “Press Conformist” dogma.
And that is why I just so love to see those journalists who attack everyone else huffing and puffing when someone like Trump, or Boris or Farage or indeed a growing number of politicians – say and do things that make them boil with rage – the more I see the vile journalists boiling with rage – the more I want to vote for those who showed up the vile journalists for the anti-freedom anti-freespeech anti-everyone-who-does-not-bow-down-and-accept-everything-they-say journalists what what they really are.
But the biggest irony – is that people like Trump have realised, that now the press are largely powerless to stop us hearing about people like Trump – the press are forced to report about them – and thus the more Trump outrages the press, the more publicity and support he gets. So ironically the huffing and puffing press are now one of the best ways for Trump to get his message across and to get support.

Deconstructionalism is the fundamental philosophy found in academia and has found favour largely due to the success of following this approach in understanding evolution, chemical composition and even much physics.
The philosophy is simple: that all things can be deconstructed into parts, and that by understanding these parts, one can understand the whole.
In evolutionary biology, this philosophy worked well with an approach of comparing individual features of animals and then grouping them into like animals based on the type of feet (hoof, claw, gripping hand) and along with other features, creating a family tree of animals. Without deconstructionalism, the “family tree” would have been viewed as just a way of categorising animals. But deconstructionalism, says the whole is the sum of its parts – parts that can be viewed separately as having their own properties and behaviour. As such when we see the “same part” in two animals, we can see that the two parts must be related some how – even if the whole animals are clearly very different and not (obviously) related.
Likewise, a similar approach has worked fantastically in chemistry: first grouping chemicals into similar types and then by using various techniques, demonstrating that they are composed of the same basic parts (e.g. Oxides – contain oxide, Carbonates have similar chemistry, that group X, elements have similar properties. Again, the great step forward was to understand that chemical were composed of constituent parts, and that these could be the same in apparently very different compounds.
In Physics, the behaviour of objects that appear chaotic, was seen to be the sum of individual facets: mass, volume/density for gases, temperature, etc. The behaviour of the whole, could (in large part) be predicted from the behaviour of one facet. A man dropped from 100m, whilst they move and shout differently from a lead weight, they will reach the ground at a time almost entirely based on the laws of gravity. Their behaviour is determined from only one facet and not from the whole.
Likewise, a similar approach has worked wonderfully in archaeology. Small pot sherds have been found, classified into “types” and by working out the context (i.e. layer in the ground) from which they come, they can be linked in date to other things and from this – and because humans are constantly changing fashion, it has been possible to date many sites just by small bits of pottery.
The method of comparing features or looking at individual facets, then classifying, identifying “parts”, modelling the behaviour of parts or facets and then  recreating the characteristics of the whole has been hugely successful to such a degree it is now ingrained as very much “THE WAY TO WORK” in much of academia.
And yes, simply knowing & understanding the behaviour of the parts, has been tremendously successful in so many areas of academia, because in many many areas, the behaviour of the whole can be determined from the behaviour of the parts. Continue reading →

The SNP are constantly telling everyone in Scotland two things:

1. The SNP can pay for Scottish separation from England by using all the money they will get from oil
2. The SNP want an end to fossil fuels like oil.

Do you spot the problem?
Quite clearly, if the SNP end fossil fuels, then they won’t have the money to pay for all the public services in Scotland. Total madness! So, how do they get away with it?
There was a comment by Josh the other day: “Can you imagine how a chicken thinks”. And likewise, it is very hard to imagine how the totally gullible scientifically and engineering illiterate politicians and journalists think (if “think” is the right verb).
I can only imagine they “think” that because wind is “free” (the same as coal and oil is free – you just pay to extract it) … that because it is “free”, they can replace oil by wind. Of course, the actual economics is that wind costs money and that the only possible way to make money from wind is to sell it to some other gullible stupid pathetic government committed to an equally stupid “fossil fuel free” economy.
And so long as the rest of the UK was in the EU – where they were being forced by their insane energy policy to spend more and more of the economy buying expensive “wind” (and thereby closing down all energy intensive industries like steel which can no longer afford to operate in the EU) … so long as the UK was under the jack boot of Brussels, the SNP might have been able to fool the extremely gullible.
But not now … now the SNP have a certifiably insane policy: separation from the United Kingdom (there is no independence in the Euro Union … ) and no oil, no money from oil, bird-mincers destroying the wilderness that tourists visit, fishing given to the EU, and the rest of the UK free of the insane EU and not willing to give a penny for the crazy bird-mincer electricity.

Fracking

There is of course, one way out of the hole they dug themselves – and that is fracking. But having also dug a hole for themselves on fracking by saying they are against it … I’m not going to go out of my way to encourage our idiot politicians to change … when it will be easier to change our idiot politicians.

As it looks more and more likely, that Trump is going to win the presidential race in the US, the whining of climate alarmists is increasing to a shrill cry of real alarm.
And at the same time, there is very much a dearth of anything being written about the recent El Nino – something I’m waiting for in order to make further progress understanding the ice-age cycle.
There are two simple explanations:
1. The academics are just upset that global temperatures came down again after the El Nino – and so they can’t bring themselves to write anything admitting there’s been global cooling this year.
2. They are all heavily otherwise occupied working for the democrats.
Either way, it’s more proof that these academics aren’t interested in real science, but instead just cherry pick the data until they find something that helps the (Democrat) cause.