Information is measured in bits which is log₂ (1/probability)

Like information, value is increased by rarity.

What if they behaved the same?

Value = β log₂ (1/frequency)

If I had the rarest fossil and it was worth A. Then if I found another, I do not have 2A, instead the rarity has halved, so the value of each decreases.

New Topic

I’ve just heard a US idiot talking about “manoeuvre success” as the “right” strategy to use in warfare. Looking up the subject I read that supposedly “manoeuvre” and “attrition” are two ends of the only spectrum of warfare strategy.

Apparently manoeuvre is so ingrained and indoctrinated as the one and only strategy of warfare, that the western military idiots are incapable of thinking of any way to fight, nor to fight against, the other strategy.

That explains why they don’t understand Roman warfare, where slow attrition was used alongside shock attacks.

But attrition is not the Russian strategy. Instead it is “total war”, where the military engagement is merely part of a much wider and longer-term strategy. One where most of the military manoeuvring is being done outwith the view and control of the US military.

I would liken the situation to a Fourier transform, which “tests” a waveform using a variety of frequencies, such that each frequency “tests” a different aspect of the waveform. Given the nature of of sine waves, each frequency tests a different aspect of the waveform that is not visible at other frequencies. The response tells us “how much” the waveform “chimes” with the test frequency. Or in the simplest of terms whether the “note” is present or not.

From a human point, that means we can “hear” high frequency sounds, that do not “resonate” with a much lower test frequency. In other words they would not cause a much lower resonator to start resonating in sympathy.

There are more complex ways to test waveforms. One is to use a square wave of various frequencies in contrast to sin. The problem with that technique is that square waves are less specific to one frequency. So you can test at 1khz, and get a response from both the intended 1khz component as well as a 3khz or 5khz component in the waveform.

I would diagnose the US military “thinkers” in the same way. They look at the situation in Ukraine based on their own indoctrinated thinking of “manoeuvre warfare” and they decide whether what the Russians are doing is “good” or “bad” based on how well it fits their own indoctrinated viewpoint of how wars “should” be fought. And, because they are taught the “opposite” of “manoeuvre warfare” is “attrition” and attrition is bad, because they see the warfare happening, and it is not “manoeuvre warfare” they decide it is “attrition” and therefore “bad” …. and that seems to be all the thinking they can do.

But, that would be a bit like testing a waveform with something that resonates at 1khz, and then as the opposite of 1khz being present is the absence, then ascribing any waveform that does not resonate at 1khz as being “silence”.

Instead, to understand the Russians, we have to understand warfare as it expands over the various dimension of time, space, and politics. The Russians are not conducting 1D warfare where the only dimension is “manoeuvre warfare” versus “attrition”. Instead, they are involved in multi-dimensional warfare in which ONE OF THE DIMENSIONS is “manoeuvre warfare” versus “attrition”, but that is by no means the only dimension of importance.

Which is why a much smaller country like the Russian Federation is running rings around the US. And, there is absolutely no way to stop it so long as the US continues in its arrogant heavy handed “we are the masters of the Universe and all others shall kneel before us” kind of attitude. I could spell out what they were doing wrong in great detail, produce a master plan of how to change, etc. etc., and it would make absolutely no difference at all, because they would never listen. They are the “great” US with their “wonderful” “manoeuvre warfare” and they will win every war with it … because they only ever go to war with little countries who are easy to beat.

To be honest the US are digging their own grave, and they have not done anything at all to make someone like want to help them … especially since I will get the blame when they eventually collapse into the grave they dug themselves.

AI to replace the Gormless idiots who love AI

There is an irony with AI, that the people who most love it, are the gormless fools whose jobs are most easily replaced by AI. In other words, if almost everything that you “know” is better known by AI … then you don’t know anything that couldn’t better be done with AI.

So, if you are one of the gullible fools that just love the answers you get from the AI brainwashing bots masquerading as “search engines”, then you don’t have anything to offer the world that cannot be replaced by cheaper and easier AI.

And, let me be blunt. Most US “strategists” could be replaced with AI and the only noticeable difference is that we’d get the bullshit quicker.

Does it matter if Russia and China rule the world?

The simple fact is that the western population is being brainwashed to become the most gullible pathetically stupid group of people on the planet. And, the result is that almost all the western population are doing “jobs” that will soon be replaced by AI … because people are being coerced to stop thinking for themselves.

Gullible idiots are not the way to future economic success. Nor is handing away all your energy, industry and raw material assets, as the western “thinkers” have been doing for years (prompted by Russia and China).

It is a miracle that the west has not collapse before now. The only thing keeping us from collapsing now, is historical inertia … which can be the death knell to an economy, when the “belief” in the country’s position in the world and the reality are completely unmatched.

China and Russia are the new top dogs. And, I do not see anyone in the west with the nouse to resist them.

Trump is a complete disaster. Far from making the necessary reforms, he is instead ingraining the attitudes that are so disastrous to US relationships with the rest of the world. Far from getting down in the trenches to fight the war, he is instead telling everyone they should be an armchair general listening to google brainwashing them into believing they are winning the war. And, the Russians are very happy for Google to be brainwashing the west into their arrogance belief in their own military invincibility … whilst China and Russia capture the hearts, minds and economy of the rest of the world.

Information is power

There is a belief in the US that information is power, and therefore, you can run an economy on information, rather like you can run a cooker on electricity. The problem is that information is so easily available that getting information is no problem at all. And, such information has almost no value.

Information is not power, only having rare information that is needed is power. Likewise, being able to think, doesn’t make you valuable, unless you can think in a way that others cannot think and in a manner where your thinking is useful.

Thus, although AI can do a lot of “thinking”, it can never think in the way the best humans can do. So, although AI can replace a lot of human activity, especially of the “useless eaters” who google themselves by absorbing brainwashing AI, it can never replace the people who are able to see what Google is doing to the west through that dumbing down of the “useless eaters” who will soon have no place in the world economy.

So, far from information empowering people, it is actually undermining people and eventually, because Russia and China will also do AI, and lot better than the US, they will soon be replacing all the US AI, in much the same way as US AI replaced all the useless eaters. Because the western populations are being taught to be gullible idiots, unable to think for themselves, by the never ending censorship brainwashing and downright stupidity of the big US tech giants that pushing the west toward a brainwashed, gullible idiot future of “useless eaters”, where the west has no place in the world.

Welcome to the Brave New World … where you can think whatever you like, so long as it is approved by Google AI (recently acquired by Wing Yip Corp)

US dollar use in global reserves dropped from 73% in 2001 to 54% now.

Three things have triggered this:

1. The collapse of the US as a viable economy with massive and growing debt (the intent of Net Zero)
2. The theft of sovereign assets by the dollar banking system which has done more than anything else to trigger the loss of confidence in dollar banking
3. The rise of Brics, which might look aggressive, but in reality, given the state of the dollar it should have happened a long time ago. The world is sick and tired of funding the US economy by the mafia-style forced use of the dollar.

At the moment BRICS has 11 members and 22 applying, covering 47% of world population. There is no doubt that number will increase and that Brics is heading to overtake the western financial systems … which seem incapable of understanding the new low-cost reality, and instead they keep profiteering in the belief that the US army will regime anyone who tries to change that situation of excess profits in the US.

The reality is that other payment systems like gold are taking over. For obvious reasons those trading gold want to highlight the PAST increase in value of gold, but gold is not the only way to settle international debts.

Countries have built gold vaults and payment networks to trade without US dollars. But gold has been important. India added 73 tons in 2024 and brought 100 tons home from UK. Gold price hit $4,000+ in October 2025, up 46% this year.

However by far the most important change is the settlement of debt in currencies other than the dollar. Now Russia-China trade is 90% in their own currencies.

However there is a move for a direct replacement for the dollar. The “Unit” currency will be 60% by local money, 40% backed by gold,  said New Development Bank President Dilma Rousseff. Full system ready by 2030, test runs maybe in 2026.

Why 2030?

Because that is when the west is due to commit economic suicide through Nut Zero.

Following Trump’s threat to start nuclear war by sending US personnel to fire devices that Russia would have to assume were nuclear into Russia, and Putin’s highly effective response of demonstrating nuclear powered nuclear weapons that would bypass the US defences and make them practically defenceless against a Russian Federation attack, the immediate threat of Trump starting WWIII has disappeared … even if 99.9999%n of people hadn’t a clue we were on the verge of nuclear war.

Trump appears to have no leverage over Putin, so Russia is free to continue the campaign in the style that massively favours the Russians. Which is a slow war of attrition, gradually squeezing the life out of the Ukrainian army and economy and thus eventually their willingness to go on.

However, the Ukraine conflict has reached an interesting phase. Pokrovsk, Lyman and Kupiansk are on the verge of being taken. These big towns have acted as “fortresses” preventing the Russians moving west. Beyond them is much easier ground, but also beyond them is the limits of the theoretical boundary of the Russian operation to take the land that voted to be part of the Russian Federation.

Ukraine’s energy infrastructure is now being systematically targetted and without the energy to power fuel pumps, there will be no supply of weapons to the front line, and the already demoralised Ukrainian troops will crumble.

There are also potential signs that the Russians are about to cross the Dnieper into Kherson … in another region that voted to be part of the Russian Federation and is legally part of it.

A purposely slow war

Continue reading →

Dito

Coming back from some time away I find another round of articles revealing the massive costs of the green economic suicide and the inevitable demise of both the green fantasy and those who made they money from that fantasy.

There is now no need to try and persuade anyone of the insanity … mother nature and father economics are doing it all for us.

It looks like I will be busy for the next few weeks. So I may not have much time or inclination to comment.

So, if things do go belly up, before I return, I’d just like to say so long and thanks for popping by.

May the fates be kind to you and hopefully see you after,

Scottish Sceptic

It appears that an announcement on the delivery of nuclear ready Tomahawks to Cuba/Ukraine may be made as soon as tomorrow (Fri 16th)

Putin is not going to back down, however he could easily take a conventional attack.

However Trump is now on the edge with the US and EU about to collapse. The truth is that after plundering Iraq, the US now desperately needs to plunder another cash cow, which is why they are desperately eyeing up Venezuela, presumably because Iran proved to be too hard a nut to crack … and as for Syria … that has turned out really well for them! The problem is the US is less and less attractive as a strategic partner, and if the only tool in your bag is regime change, that is just as likely to move the regime even further against the US. The US is getting desperate and even with the best president the US is likely to do something stupid, but with Trump the “master bluffer” … it’s not a pretty prospect.

The US bankers are now demanding their pound of US heart, and Trump really has to do whatever they tell him to do, and what they are clearly telling him to do is to take down Russia and hand it over to the bankers to disembowel.

Which is why Putin is not going to hesitate at the appointed time to start the nuclear war.

Because if I were the Russians, I would have already made that decision many weeks in advance. Thus, they will not be responding to any event, so there is no way to predict the exact time, or even day of the attack. The doomsday clock could already be ticking and whilst Putin would have agreed to set it going, even Putin may not know the exact time or date that the attack starts. Because the west will assume that Putin will know and monitor his behaviour as part of the “alert process” warning of an attack.

The reality of an attack

The number of people dying from a Russia attack would be low. They are not going to waste missiles or drones killing civilians. So the reality in civilian populations could be in the range: 0.1% to 10%. However, it may be 90% amongst the kind of people who create and decide on wars like this.

No one has the ability to store enough food and water to sustain them for the post-nuclear crisis life. After a nuclear exchange the international economy will collapse and those countries living on debt will find it impossible to buy food. The UK is already massively over-populated and in a post-nuclear economy, food production output will collapse.

It is likely that state of affairs will last for about a decade followed by a slow and irregularly spaced, in both time and geography, improvement over the next century.

In that regard, what is the appropriate behaviour of an individual?

1. Warning others is fruitless. Either it will happen, and they have not prepared, or it will not happen, and they still won’t prepare and the warning wills serve no useful purpose.
2. Even if others heeded the warning, the likely effect will be minimal as there is nothing most people can now do.
3. Stocking up on food and water and other key items might be sensible, but it is impossible to get enough food and water.
4. Being prepared to leave at any point would be sensible, but I suspect the best strategy is to stay where you are known and you know others.

The one thing that is going to be in demand in a post-nuclear world is people with practical skills. The groups who will find it extremely difficult to find work, are those whose only skill is “artistic” or selling luxury goods to idiots with too much money.

So, if I were a government spin doctor or a psyops boron, or a BBC executive of diversity, I would be terrified. They are going to be a target at every level.

Have a Holiday

It seems to me, the best way to prepare for the nuclear war is to have a holiday. Clear out the mental mess and get the brain back in order for the challenges ahead.

(And I doubt you’ll see that on any government run prepper site!)

An Apology to the Future

It has occurred to me, that if I and this blog survived a nuclear exchange, that there might be some people who ask “why didn’t you tell anyone?”

The simple answer is this: “because you would not have listened, and, even if you had, there was very little you could do about it.” The die is cast. If that die brings us to nuclear war, you will have to face it whatever I say. And why not let you have these last carefree days, because I can’t see any practical way to help. Because, whilst it will be very clear after such a war to say “the best way to prepare would have been … ” at the moment, I cannot see anything I could suggest people do, which they would actually do. All I could do, is to give them more days of fear before such an event, without significantly altering the prospects after.

Also there is the huge risk, after the clear deliberate lies of government and doctors during covid, that we are again being lied to. That we are being deliberately fed misinformation in order to stir up some kind of event that has nothing to do with nuclear war.

So this is why I’m not telling anyone:

1. You wouldn’t listen if I told you
2. Even if you did listen, you wouldn’t act
3. Even if you did listen and act, there is a high chance that I am being misled and shouldn’t be telling you.

One day our headmaster at school said: “there will be a surprise fire alarm some day this week at 10am”. Most other people accepted that statement.

However, I then explained the problem: If the alarm did not happen on Mon-Thu and we got to Friday, it would not be a surprise when it happened on the only remaining timeslot: Friday. So it cannot happen on Friday.

So, then by similar logic, if we get to Wednesday and it has not happened, then it will not be a surprise on Thursday as that is the last day available. So, likewise, Thu, Wed, Tue and Mon can be eliminated.

However another approach says that on Friday there is only one possibility: Friday. But on Thursday there are two possibilities Thur/Fri. So Friday would be no surprise at all, but Thursday paradoxically will be a surprise to some. Thus it follows that the sooner the fire alarm occurred, the greater the surprise.

However, there is another effect: having been told on the preceding Friday that the alarm will be next week. More people will remember it on Monday than Tuesday, etc.

The consequences for Russian first strike

Continue reading →

Russia will have spent a long time gaming the options running up to a nuclear war. And, logically, it will have a series of “shock” responses designed to halt that run up, either by demonstrating its capability or its readiness.

Some of those options will be entirely secret actions which I will never hear about. So, I have no idea what cards have already been played and certainly no idea of what cards are still to be played. Thus rather than working out the individual moves, all I can do is anticipate the overall strategy and guess where we might be in the sequence leading to nuclear war.

There is no doubt that the Russians will have worked very hard to give themselves extra levers to pull in the run up to nuclear war. There is also no doubt we are close to nuclear war. And, there is no doubt that Trump is an evil arrogant fool whose self-belief in his ability to “make the deal” is as bad or even worse than the incompetence and brain-dead away with the ferries presidency of … Biden’s wife … that would have us wandering by mistake into nuclear war.

I know the Russians will have spent a lot of time and effort looking for ways to play their hand if nuclear ready Tomahawks are used. The problem is that the response of the Russians to the Tomahawks is unknown. It is either a preplanned tit-for-тат  response (which can include nothing obvious), or it could be tit-for-NUCLEAR WAR. Because the option of going direct to nuclear war may be the most advantageous to Russia.

I’ve just been to some prepper forums and I can honestly say that they haven’t a clue that we are standing right on the edge of nuclear war.

Rationally, this is exactly how the Russians would want to start a nuclear exchange: with no one in the west even talking about the possibility. So, minimal interest in so called “prepper” sites.

However my confidence in those sites, which didn’t start very high, has just fallen through the floor. There is now a realistic pathway to nuclear war within days, and they are all but silent? Do the Russians run them all? Or do they just respond to the latest article in some CIA produced propaganda rag mag dressed up as “information from an anonymous sauce” (misspelling intended)

So I went to the people who know the least and give least information – the snoozepapers … and it’s much of the same dross we always get. What there is, is clearly the result of some more press releases or other using “nuclear” as a way to get headlines  and not genuine concern.

Are there no other options for the Russians?

That is the crux question. And, knowing how Trump “thinks”, he will imagine that he’s some “genius” poker player who has given the Russians only one option which the Russians see is the total destruction of their country, and Trump will imagine that forcing the Russians to accept his bluff or nuclear war will lead to only one outcome. It will, but the Russians will obviously pick nuclear war. Except they know Trump is a prat and I guess they know he’s a bluffer.

This is utterly crazy. Even the prepper nutters aren’t showing any alarm. Everything is quiet, yet logically, within days, the Russians will be in a position where I can see no option but nuclear war … and I have absolutely no doubt they will do it.

But, is there no alternative?

The Russians have been very good at pulling out alternative options from the hat when I imagined there was none left. So, just because I can’t see any other alternative, doesn’t mean there isn’t one.

What I do know, is that the Russians totally pulled the wool over the eyes of western “intelligence”. So, they have no ideas about the scale or intent of Russia preparation. They are more clueless in that regard than I am.

However, I am totally lacking information about Russia alternative actions.

Conclusions

1. Given that everyone is clueless, there is no point trying to talk with anyone about this, let alone trying to persuade others to get ready.
2. The most likely outcome based on the available evidence is nuclear war within days.
3. The most likely outcome based on the evidence I do not know, is probably not war … but there might be a margin of error for that conclusion, given I have absolutely no idea what might stop a nuclear war now.
4. There is very little anyone can do to protect themselves from a nuclear war.
5. I have a lot of the key essentials like milk bottles and gaffa tape. Other than the limited list which is very different from prepper site ones, there is not a lot most people can practically do. So, as no one is going to listen to the list, I’m not going to bother to compile it.
6. In the current situation, there is nothing that can be done to help others. No one is going to believe it is coming … indeed, though rationally war looks pretty overwhelmingly likely, it is hard for me to take that rational argument seriously.

Goodbye

If war does occur, then this could well be my last post. So, I would just like to take the opportunity to thank anyone who may read this.

Of course, from a gambling perspective, it is much better to bet on no war. Because no one in the future is going to read this if this is the last post, but if it isn’t, I get the kudos afterwards of predicting the war wasn’t going to happen.

So, even if a 80% chance of this being the last article, the only winning option is to bet on the 20% chance that nothing will happen.

I read another “I told you so” about the collapse of the so called “Paris Agreement”.

I seem to recall I laughed at when it came out. Yet far too many sceptics seemed to believe that just because a bunch of know-nothing idiot politicians had got someone else to book their flights to Paris and actually managed to stay on the plane till it arrived, and then found a pen and managed to sign their own name to something none of them understood, that somehow the sceptics imagined it would change the world.

It has not, and it will not. The world carries on whether or not the idiots who signed the paris agreement want it to or not. They have very little control, and they chose to exercise the small amount of control they did have, in the most stupid manner possible. It was not difficult to predict failure, because there was no other outcome.

Nuclear War

So, we are yet again standing on the edge of nuclear war. Continue reading →