The Toad goes rowing – TheEndofPhysics laments those "insisting on validation of models"

I nearly thought about posting on this, where the Toad (aka Connolley) has finally decided that 8minutes of watching him rowing is more important than anything else.
However, then I noticed people were commenting and I couldn’t help wondering what the eco-fascist line was on rowing. Then I spotted this gem from the EndOfPhysics:

Apart from the “can can’t” this is something I seem to be encountering more and more. People who are insisting on validation of models, or precise confirmation of certain quantities (like the ECS for example). It’s as if they think science should be more like engineering and don’t realise that science is about trying to understand the world around us, not control or use it. You can’t just deliver a scientific result on demand, you can only do as well as is possible given the tools/knowledge available at that time.

Yet another classic example of the ivory tower mentality: “You can’t just deliver a scientific result on demand“. And yes, because engineers deal with this type of problem day in day out where “You can’t just deliver a scientific result on demand“, engineers are the professionals in judging a situation where “You can’t just deliver a scientific result on demand“, and this is why engineers work on these kinds of issues where we do need to make decisions where “You can’t just deliver a scientific result on demand” and this is why we don’t allow academics in their ivory towers to go anywhere near problems where you do want “scientific results on demand“.
This is the delusion of academia. They sit in their ivory towers thinking they are better than engineers, telling us they are “95% confident” and that there is “97% consensus”. But when anyone asks them to justify their claims that any engineer can see are fraudulent they say: “You can’t just deliver a scientific result on demand“.
The difference between science and engineering.
An engineer is a scientist. The difference is that engineers have ADDITIONAL TRAINING, SKILLS & TECHNIQUES which allow them to make the best possible decisions when “You can’t just deliver a scientific result on demand“. So engineers are scientists who are also trained to deal with situations with limited information, with unclear results, with the human factors and with life and death decisions – and make the best decision.
In contrast academics don’t make any decision. They understand how to deal with less-that-perfect real world situation. The reality is that they only work in areas where “You CAN deliver a scientific result on demand“,  and look down at the far higher training, skills & techniques of engineers having to make time-critical, life-critical decisions in the real world outside their ivory towers.
And it is this arrogant stupidity of academics, who clearly do not have any legitimacy as any kind of expert in situations like the climate where “You can’t just deliver a scientific result on demand“. It’s this arrogance they have any expertise, which has led them into the non-science of pretending to be experts in an area where they have no competence:Climate Engineering
Definition: Climate engineering is the scientific & engineering skills, techniques & training to  make the best scientific, engineering, economic & policy decisions on  climate in a situation where “You can’t just deliver a scientific result on demand“.

Posted in Climate, Goat Toads, Humour | 6 Comments

Corruption Of Academic Journals For Profit and Climate Change Propaganda

A long time ago, I recognised that the climate signal was far too short a time period to be able to say anything at all about it – and so it was fraudulent to say much at all.
But academics don’t get grants for saying “we don’t know”.So a whole academic industry has been born to fabricate “understanding” about the climate where there is none.
And now it appears that much of what the public call “science” is very much the same: fraud!

Posted in Academia, Climate | Comments Off on Corruption Of Academic Journals For Profit and Climate Change Propaganda

R code to plot CET daily

As a programmer who has learnt & used perhaps 20-30 programming languages (I even created my own “language” at one one for a particular application), when I heard some other skeptics talking about using ‘R’ I made the mistake of thinking it would be a very simple task to get up to speed with ‘R’

I was wrong R … isn’t a language

It’s the expression I find myself saying when trying to do even the simplest thing Rrrrr … If that hasn’t deterred you, then you can download the code here:
http://cran.r-project.org/bin/windows/base/
And there’s an introduction here:
http://cran.r-project.org/doc/manuals/R-intro.html
And quickly here are a few “hello world” examples. Copy and paste these into the window that says “R console”: Continue reading

Posted in Climate, computing | Tagged | 2 Comments

Neil Craig, the Lone wolf howls no more

Neil Craig, the Lone wolf

Neil Craig, the Lone wolf


It is with sad regret that I have to announce the sudden death of Neil Craig, friend, SCEF committee member, prolific blogger, and strident “voice in the wilderness” who gained the nick name “the lone wolf”.

Excellent letter from Mr Craig. He is like a lone wolf howling in despair in the intellectual wilderness of our politics.

As founder of the 9% growth party he was ambitious in his politics or as he put it:

The policies advocated then were unquestionably the most progressive (ie promoting progress) of any party in Scotland, indeed by a very wide margin.  Even after these years they still are. Indeed moreso since our ruling political class have deliberately put us through an unnecessary recession when we could have had at least 9% growth, and put over 1 million Scottish households into fuel poverty with the world’s most damaging “Climate Change Act”, allegedly designed to prevent the catastrophic global warming we are suffering from – despite it being admitted there has been no warming, catastrophic or otherwise since 1995.

A strong advocate for nuclear power and free market thinking, he was a constant thorn in the side of a complacent public sector frequently being heard to ask the question:

Name me one scientist who supports the alarmists, anywhere in the world, who is not ultimately paid by the state

Always surprising, Neil recently married a lady I never had the chance to meet, however whilst he appeared to mellow following that union, I also saw a marked improvement in his political writings so that  I felt he had a real chance of being elected for UKIP.
If so, he would no doubt have livened up the otherwise drab and boring politics of Scotland.

Neil Craig

A Place to Stand

Posted in Politics, Sceptics | 5 Comments

Mirror Mirror on the wall who's the most electable politician of them all?

The new role of the press

The new role of the press


The press, hammered by lost advertising revenue, are now little more than copy and paste merchants. The result is the “reality” politicians see is increasingly an uncritical mirror of themselves.
We’ve all seen the graph below. This shows that the “reality” as believed by the scientific establishment has increasingly diverged from the reality of the climate. Well, the same thing is also happening in politics.
IPCC AR5 figure 1.4 showing predicted versus actual. (spurious grey area removed)

IPCC AR5 figure 1.4 showing predicted versus actual. (spurious grey area removed)


The road on which I live isn’t very long, yet we have two  journalists living here. One used to write on health and education – but now she doesn’t. The other used to write on important things like government policy, but now he laments the good old days because he hardly has time to read the press releases he edits into the paper let alone critique them.
They are both victims of the internet revolution. Before the internet, papers had massive revenues from advertising. As a result they could employ lots of journalists to fill the space between the adverts. Then along came the internet and this is what happened:
US Newspaper Advertising Revenue corrected for inflation (Newspaper Association of America published data)

US Newspaper Advertising Revenue corrected for inflation (Newspaper Association of America published data)


Advertising revenue fell off a cliff and with it still continuing in its death spiral downward, the industry has been shedding journalists left right and centre.

The biggest story never printed by the press – its own demise!

Donna Laframboise who runs the  blog “No Frakking Consensus“, is another example of the biggest story that was never printed: the story of the death of mainstream print journalism. All over, the story is the same. Just over a decade ago, the print press was full of highly intellectual people sifting and commenting on news. Continue reading

Posted in Climate, Humour, internet Revolution, Politics | 2 Comments

Warning: the end of TV could herald a scared world without experts

As we all know….

Climate Depot: Monckton: ‘Just about everything the mainstream news media say about global warming and its supposed dangers is the opposite of the truth’

… the print media have been printing nonsense about climate for years.

In my last post (The Bloggers that killed the mainstream Press) I came around to the view, that the massive drop in revenue of the press may have been largely responsible for the drop in press standards and the “struggle for headlines” that allowed the scandal of the global warming scare to happen.

However that massive drop in revenue did not happen to the TV. Unlike the printed press, TV largely retained a viable income stream. That is not something I had expected. I had assumed that if the print media was affected by the rise of the internet, then so would TV. It turns out that the public are continuing to watch TV and the internet does not appear to be eating into that.

However, a new report (http://s3.amazonaws.com/kpcbweb/files/85/Internet_Trends_2014_vFINAL_-_05_28_14-_PDF.pdf?1401286773) is beginning to worry me.

In this report, they highlight the growing increase of portable devices and video streaming. Seeing how the change in technology that enabled easy access to blogs and information online so impacted the press, this is a change we should treat with caution. We are now at a stage, where it is very likely that “portable video” is cost effective and we may be on the verge of seeing this technology transform – or more accurately undermine – TV in the same way as the internet undermined the press.

Also the report supports my view, that academia will also be under pressure to reform. (The end of the UK university? )

A world without experts

So, I am now beginning to realise that what happened to the press (a drop in revenue of 80%) could be about to happen elsewhere. So I am forecasting these major trends in the next decades:

  1. The press will continue to decline and by around 2020 we will be left with a rump of around 20% of the news content we had at the peak of 2000.
  2. TV as a fixed format by large companies will likely suffer a similar catastrophic decline to that seen in the press. TV, will largely disappear to be replaced by “on demand viewing” with a rapid increase in content from small internet sites with a small rump of “big channels” dominated by public sector organisations like the BBC, the (once) big US companies and  YouTube.
  3. Academia, will also be facing a similar crisis of funding as new low-cost formats start to eat into the education budget replacing “tenured” academics.
  4. Similar threats may also be seen by doctors and other experts as “online expertise” becomes a viable alternative to “face to face” consultation.
  5. Politics will see a rise in smaller, almost anti-establishment parties (like UKIP).

This might sound a great thing. However, it may well be much worse than we thought. Because rather than this being an improvement, we may just be creating the environment whereby pressure to “up ratings” on TV leads to another “dash for scares, but this time most of the other forms of trusted authorities such as journalists, academics, etc., will also have been undermined.
So, I am now issuing this warning to all skeptics:

WE MAY WELL SEE AT LEAST ONE, IF NOT SEVERAL, OTHER MAJOR SCARE LIKE GLOBAL WARMING OVER THE NEXT FEW DECADES.

It may be climate, it may be medical, “latent” pyschological effects of …,  but if internet TV starts to take off, we must be more vigilant than ever that unscrupulous scammers like the wind lobbyists and carbon traders of global warming do not use it to feather their own nests.

Posted in Climate, Media | 2 Comments

The Bloggers that killed the mainstream Press

In 2000 the US newspapers had their best ever year with $65billion worth of ad revenue. Less than a decade later it had dropped 2/3 that value and as the graph below shows it continues in free fall and online revenue has not replaced the loss in print revenue.

US Newspaper Advertising Revenue corrected for inflation (Newspaper Association of America published data)

US Newspaper Advertising Revenue corrected for inflation (Newspaper Association of America published data)


If present trends continue then it is likely that by 2020, print revenue and online revenue combined will be around 20% of their peak in 2000. Continue reading

Posted in Media | 6 Comments

New 97% accurate climate forecast model

After extensive & thorough testing against the climatic science evidence (aka models), I am now ready to reveal to the world the latest state of the art climate prediction system. The current forecast is below:

Forecast model

My 100 year forecast
(97% accurate)

The above image was supposed to change each time it is viewed, but unfortunately, wordpress caches the file which spoils the joke. For a working demo see: uburns.com
Please note, that as a real time system constantly taking account of new temperature data (both modern and historical) the temperature prediction may vary slightly between views. This is to be expected as it is having to constantly adapt to new 20th century temperature data.
Note: whilst every endeavour has been made to ensure this model is 97% accurate – it should not be relied on for any commercial, industrial, military, medical, governmental, agricultural, marine, fictional, crossword, scrabble or any other form of intellectual use.

Posted in 1/f, Climate, Humour | 6 Comments

I nearly fell off my seat.

I read saw an article in the Daily Mail

Obama mocks GOP global warming skeptics and says they ‘pretend’ they ‘can’t read’ – but ignores new claims that the US has been COOLING since the 1930s

It sounded suitably boring – I forgot to mention amongst the last bunkers of the catastrophists was Obama – but as his climate ravings aren’t even supported by his own officials. (100 percent consensus finally achieved on climate) and he’s now a dead duck president …
However, it was not immediately clear whether it was pro anti or even “considered” The bullet points suggested pro, until the last:

  • The president spoke to a partisan audience of environmental activists on Wednesday night in Washington
  • He claimed GOP lawmakers believe global warming is real but won’t admit it because they’re afraid of ‘a bunch fringe elements’ in their own party ‘They ducked the question and said “Hey, I’m not a scientist”,’ Obama joked
  • Obama ignored new evidence that American scientists have been altering climate data for years
  • The US Historical Climatology Network has been adjusting its records by replacing temperatures with data fabricated by computer models

And then I saw the picture from steven goddard’s blog. The typical “not exactly profeesional” cobbled together picture of a blogger staring out at me from the Daily Mail.

Ace!

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2671146/Obama-mocks-GOP-global-warming-skeptics-says-pretend-read.html#ixzz36xS7M7xk

Posted in Climate, Fails | Comments Off on I nearly fell off my seat.

How much would the BBC get on the open market?

If the British government just put the BBC up for sale lock stock and barrel, how much would we get for it?

Posted in Climate, General, Politics | 2 Comments