Author Archives: Pict1

A possible strategy – infect people!

The more I look at the figures, the less it looks possible that any “delay” strategy will have any meaningful effect on the coronavirus except a complete clamp down on all social meetings for about a year till a vaccine … Continue reading

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Coronavirus Forecast Model

After a bit of work, I’ve managed to make my spreadsheet more presentable. It is largely the same as that described in the Scottish Forecast, the main difference being that it now contains two extra sheets. The first “overview” contains … Continue reading

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Why official testing is not revealing community spread

Most cases of CV are mild. So, most people with CV won’t go for testing. But to add to that, even with severe symptoms, most health professionals will not be testing for CV unless there is a “reason” to believe … Continue reading

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Update March 11th

just done some analysis on the latest figures and present UK trend. It is possible that the rate of growth over last few days has reduced (yellow portion). This change is currently very small and could be a statistical blip, … Continue reading

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Scottish Coronavirus Forecast

I have been developing a model to try to predict the effect of coronavirus (CV) in Scotland. I will go through each point. CVModel Disclaimer, I make no guarantee this is correct and it is provided as is, intended only … Continue reading

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Clueless Chief Medical Officer

“Modelling suggests that there will be a a bit of a delay in peaks between different bits of the country … it will not be huge it might be only four or five weeks …”. This is why the UK … Continue reading

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Suggested ways to cope with the Pandemic

I’ve already suggested: Mecial students being trained for specific CV treatments Vets being turned into doctors and their equipment being redeployed for humans Closing of Universities and redeploying students into a host of roles Everyone is suggesting using the army … Continue reading

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Coincidence?

I have just been examining data for various countries and extrapolating back the growth to the date at which there would have been one carrier. Here they are: Italy 6th Feb S.Korea: 8th Feb Iran: 15th Feb UK 18th Feb … Continue reading

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Somethings gone wrong

After nearly an hour waiting for the current figures on coronavirus, the data has still not been updated and I’m starting to see “distract” type aticles from the press with very little detail. These seem to have been written to … Continue reading

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How do you fancy being treated by a vet?

The government are already talking about using trainee doctors for the critical period. In addition there is another huge resource which is easily available and that is the large army of vets. Vets are trained to work on any animal … Continue reading

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