Small but significant risk of major loss of life in Scotland

Before the snow deluge, this winter had been worse than any in the 20 years we’ve lived in this location. It arrived earlier it remained cold and we had frequent period of snow that lay for a few days. But we had had deeper snow one year. That’s now changed and we’ve still got at least 3 more days of colder weather.

ROAD BLOCKED – A75

⚠️ Police dealing with an RTC on the #A75 at Mouswald. Visibility is horrendous and roadway is BLOCKED ⚠️ #DGRoads pic.twitter.com/U9OCaivttn
— DGVost (@DGVost) March 1, 2018

That is not the problem, like most people we stocked up on food and toilet rolls before the roads shut. And having bought snow chains (everyone laughed as we live in a suburb of Glasgow), it would take just five minutes to get to roads that are “drivable”.

UPDATE ⚠️: Drivers have now been stuck on the M80 for 18 hours and 50 vehicles have been abandoned. Avoid the area. https://t.co/XMgogLbXR0 — STV News (@STVNews) March 1, 2018

The problem is that there is no way on earth the global warming obsessed Scottish government or local government could ever conceive of the amount of snow we’ve already had. They weren’t prepared for the last few winters when people were stuck up to 8 hours of motorways, they aren’t prepared for this. We have certainly got a few more days of this snow, but whilst there’s a couple of days has a maximum of 4C, that may be no where near enough to melt the snow. If people cannot restock their larders, cannot do minor repairs, and then there is even more snow as forecast …
And we all know how bad forecasts can be even a few days in advance. So it may be a lot warmer – but it could easily be a lot colder. And if it turns colder before what he have melts, not only will individuals struggle to get cars out to buy food, but I’d be pretty certain they don’t have enough grit in store and if they can’t grit the roads, then even if we could walk to the shops, haulier will struggle to deliver food.

The Times reports it highly likely that National Grid would have to start forcibly cutting off industrial users’ gas supplies to help to preserve supplies for households.

— Andrew Neil (@afneil) March 1, 2018

To make it worse, this snow isn’t like other snow which settles and that’s it. Instead, because it’s cold enough, it is being picked up and blown by the wind. So even if you clear a road, it an be quickly blocked again.
It’s bad enough if you are fit and healthy. But for anyone who struggles to get around, they may as well forget trying to get any more food in. And if your boiler goes on the blink (as my neighbour’s did), then there’ll be no way to get a plumber. We haven’t yet had power cuts, but if the weather continues it is inevitable we will.
There’s not a lot between us and primitive people starving in the cold except easy access to supermarkets and abundant heating fuels on demand. Take that away and the main difference is that modern people haven’t a clue how to survive in the cold.
At the moment most people are just bunkered in their homes waiting for the snow to go away. That approach usually works. But looking at the forecast there’s a possibility it won’t go away anytime soon. If that happens, then grit may run out shortly followed by food & energy supplies and then what is normally minor calamities like a boiler going on the blink, or an infection that could be easily treated by anti-biotics, becomes life threatening. If that happens on a large enough scale – then there’s going to be a significant loss of life.
Usually in the UK there are around 32,000 extra winter deaths. If that number increases by only 10% that’s another 3200. That scale of effect could happen in Scotland. Yes, most will be unseen as they will be amongst those who are mostly likely to die. But the death rate could be significant even amongst the fit and healthy.
To make it worse – with such a large and late accumulation of snow, there is a serious risk of very sudden melting. That will overwhelm many rivers again with serious implications.
Looking at the current forecast, the key is the weather next Tuesday and Wednesday. But that is a forecast for 5 & 6 days ahead which is entirely unreliable. If its warm enough to melt the snow and allow most people to restock then even though snow is forecast for Thursday and beyond, most people will be prepared for another period of snow. But if we see a steady accumulation of snow and the grit runs out and we don’t get melting in 5/6 days. Then we’re in the shit.

Addendum 3/3/2018

Yesterday the forecast was looking better for Tuesday Wednesday with very little chance of the snow not melting. But today we woke up to more snow on the ground and the forecast is down about 1C which is enough to allow snow to settle at some times of day. If it drops another 1C, there may be more net accumulation throughout next week.
To add insult to injury, the global warming obsessed SNP are blaming everyone else but themselves. Yesterday we saw many people with heavy bags of shopping walking the two miles to and from the nearest supermarket
The SNP are blaming all the lorry drivers … but that’s a real cheek, because now most shops have run out of fresh food. BECAUSE LORRY DRIVERS CAN’T GET THROUGH. The SNP government live in a cloud cuckoo land where food magically arrives at shops without once having to travel any of their impassable roads.