For some time, I’ve been using the assumption that there’s an approximately 60 year long cycle in the climate corresponding to the AMO (Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation). This is not so much because I have a high confidence there is a connection between global temperature & AMO, but instead because there isn’t much else that is predictable. So whilst my confidence in a connection is perhaps only 50%, and because we can largely ignore CO2 and because we have no other predictable climate changes, the decline in global temperature that is suggested by AMO whilst far from certain is the best guess of future change we have. To some figures on the cooling, when I last checked, it looked like the peak in AMO warming should have been around 2010. As such, we’ve been rather overdue for cooling, which should reach a maximum rate of cooling in 2025 and reach another low around 2040. (Perhaps up to 0.5C cooler than today)
Then we had Trump.
But before Trump we had the El Nino – with it’s predictable rise in global temperature. And even more predictably, the vile alarmists claimed it proved global warming was happening (and not all of them could have been totally ignorant that the rise was highly predictable from El Nino). But after El Nino … we tend to get La Nina and with La Nina we get global cooling (for which the alarmists have no answer except to try to ignore it).
Then I came across an article on warwickhughes. A string of spotless days on ole Sol. So, at first the warwickhughes “article” (~27 words) appeared to be just another comment on Sun Spots:
From 2nd to 9th Jan so far and SILSO has New ‘Spotless days’ page with several graphics to ponder.
And yes, many suggest a link between Sun Spots and climate, and I think it is a viable hypothesis. But I’ve yet to see a predictable link. So I’m interested, willing to consider the idea, but still waiting to see anything approaching positive preditive confirmation of the link.
However … unexpectedly the warwickhughes article went on:
OT but the SOI is nudging positive too.
SOI means Southern Oscillation Index, and it is one of the metrics that tell us something about the El Nino/La Nina/Enso cycle. Here is a graph of some recent values which unfortunately doesn’t include the recent 2016 peak of El Nino, but if it did, the value of SOI would be negative. (Note it varies around 20-30 either side of the axis).
Source AGBM
So, the warwickhughes statement that SOI is nudging positive is a strong indication that we are heading into La Nina territory and therefore likely to see global cooling in the next few months. (For details see daily SOI data in table below) Warwickhughes is right! The daily figures after hovering around zero, have started hovering around +15 to +20. If this continues, we will see a nice La Nina and should see further global cooling which may well see the first extended period where UAH** shows figures below the axis.
My gut fealing is that it could well be a much larger La Nina than usual. If this were true, it would mean the dip would be deeper OR longer OR deeper + longer than usual.
So, between Trump, La Nina and AMO, it seems alarmists are going to have a horrible time in the next few years.
**Note: UAH is the only remaining unfiddled global temperature metric. People fabricate such things all over the place. But what is totally fraudulent here, is that these other bogus adjusted and highly politicised metrics are given as the “global temperature” which they clearly are not.
| Date | Tahiti | Darwin | Daily** | 30 day avg SOI | 90 day avg SOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Dec 2016 | 1011.96 | 1008.00 | 1.24 | -0.48 | 1.75 |
| 13 Dec 2016 | 1011.41 | 1008.25 | -2.91 | -0.77 | 1.41 |
| 14 Dec 2016 | 1011.00 | 1007.85 | -2.96 | -0.80 | 1.15 |
| 15 Dec 2016 | 1009.95 | 1007.65 | -7.37 | -0.44 | 0.89 |
| 16 Dec 2016 | 1009.92 | 1007.35 | -5.97 | 0.28 | 0.62 |
| 17 Dec 2016 | 1010.44 | 1006.55 | 0.88 | 1.12 | 0.47 |
| 18 Dec 2016 | 1011.86 | 1007.10 | 5.40 | 1.70 | 0.40 |
| 19 Dec 2016 | 1010.14 | 1005.40 | 5.29 | 1.75 | 0.28 |
| 20 Dec 2016 | 1010.63 | 1002.35 | 23.66 | 2.51 | 0.43 |
| 21 Dec 2016 | 1010.94 | 1003.25 | 20.60 | 3.12 | 0.58 |
| 22 Dec 2016 | 1009.60 | 1005.95 | -0.36 | 2.95 | 0.49 |
| 23 Dec 2016 | 1007.23 | 1006.85 | -17.33 | 2.36 | 0.21 |
| 24 Dec 2016 | 1008.56 | 1006.35 | -7.84 | 1.88 | -0.09 |
| 25 Dec 2016 | 1009.59 | 1007.05 | -6.12 | 1.34 | -0.42 |
| 26 Dec 2016 | 1009.30 | 1005.65 | -0.36 | 1.01 | -0.62 |
| 27 Dec 2016 | 1008.63 | 1005.30 | -2.02 | 0.67 | -0.76 |
| 28 Dec 2016 | 1008.98 | 1005.85 | -3.06 | 0.35 | -0.95 |
| 29 Dec 2016 | 1008.51 | 1005.85 | -5.50 | 0.05 | -1.32 |
| 30 Dec 2016 | 1007.92 | 1003.70 | 2.59 | 0.12 | -1.44 |
| 31 Dec 2016 | 1010.15 | 1004.55 | 9.76 | 0.62 | -1.41 |
| 1 Jan 2017 | 1012.73 | 1002.85 | 24.83 | 1.69 | -1.13 |
| 2 Jan 2017 | 1013.61 | 1001.20 | 36.75 | 3.15 | -0.77 |
| 3 Jan 2017 | 1011.18 | 1000.30 | 29.54 | 4.20 | -0.57 |
| 4 Jan 2017 | 1010.13 | 1000.60 | 23.18 | 4.76 | -0.45 |
| 5 Jan 2017 | 1009.94 | 1003.15 | 10.27 | 4.97 | -0.45 |
| 6 Jan 2017 | 1010.61 | 1004.80 | 5.66 | 5.12 | -0.37 |
| 7 Jan 2017 | 1010.09 | 1003.90 | 7.45 | 5.12 | -0.26 |
| 8 Jan 2017 | 1010.84 | 1003.20 | 14.28 | 5.37 | -0.08 |
| 9 Jan 2017 | 1012.24 | 1003.40 | 19.93 | 6.08 | 0.21 |
| 10 Jan 2017 | 1012.86 | 1004.05 | 19.79 | 6.64 | 0.58 |
