2017 state of the global climate

Global Temperature

Despite $trillions of spending predicated on a change in “global temperature”, there still remains no measurement of this figure. Most of the globe has no measurement at the surface particularly over the sea and the centre of large continents like Africa and S.America. Satellites provide a broader coverage but as yet there is no satellite crossing the poles.
The current measurement system is wholly inadequate and it is criminal that after 20 years of calling global temperature “the worlds greatest problem”, that we still don’t even have the basic measurement of global temperature.

Global Temperature Trend

To assert there is a trend when we don’t have the basic figure of global temperature is wrong. Instead all we can say is what the various ad hoc measures suggest. Unfortunately, after a period when the temperature was shown to have “paused” (in these measures) rather than look for errors in the predictions that forecast warming, those involved with the ground measurements have sought to find ways to make their metrics compatible with the models. These now lack credibility and all we can say with any confidence is that there is no reason not to believe we are still in the pause.
The other set are satellite measurements. Again these show the pause continuing – albeit without data for the poles.

Climate models & effect of CO2

Given the continuance of the pause, no climate model now has credibility. It is time that this issue was addressed by going back to basics and rethinking the presumed role of CO2 in the 20th century warming.
It now appears very likely that the scale of presumed feedbacks in the climate are much smaller than believed. There may even be strong negative feedbacks present. However, until more evidence is available it is recommended that future modelling and policy be based on the effects of CO2 alone with no feedbacks. This suggests a rise of about 1C for a doubling of CO2.

Natural Variation

It now appears very likely that most of the warming in the 20th century was caused by a period of natural warming. As such, there is a strong possibility we will see modest cooling within the next few years.
However, there is also a strong possibility we will see warming or cooling that is not currently predicted. Therefore climate policy should consider both strong warming and cooling to be possible.

Effects on Extreme weather, droughts floods.

Given we appear to be in a period of “pause”, it is not surprising that there appears to be no trend in extreme weather, global droughts, floods etc. It is therefore difficult to say what linkage, if any, exists between global temperature. However as CO2 levels continue to rise, there is no evidence for adverse effects caused by CO2.

The Effect of CO2

Whilst there is no evidence that CO2 has a direct impact on the climate except that  theoretically a rise in CO2 should see a rise in temperature (although far from being confirmed), we do expect rising CO2 to causes changes. The biggest of these is to increase the availability of atmospheric carbon to plants and to aid plant growth. This effect is predicted to have most impact on dry areas, and we are seeing evidence of a “greening of the desert”.

Sea & Land Ice and impact on ocean levels

There has been evidence for growing ice in Antarctic and diminishing ice in the Arctic. The cause of this is unclear and cannot at this stage be linked to rising CO2, although as ice-sheets will tend to lag in their response to rising temperature, there are good theoretical reasons to believe the 20th century temperature rise may be continuing to have an affect on polar ice-caps.
However, historical accounts, whilst far from being quantitative, do suggest qualitatively that similar changes in ice-sheets have occurred before. It would therefore seem prudent to ensure the state of global ice-sheets is known.
However, as yet there is no evidence to show an increased rate of sea level rise (sea level has been rising naturally since the last ice-age).

Regional & short term forecasts

Whilst much effort has  gone into the unsuccessful long-term forecasts with a massive waste of public money, very little has gone into the areas of short-term regional forecasts where there is a real chance of dramatically improving the forecast models with a huge potential for life saving and improvements to standard of living.
Moreover, if we cannot predict the climate/weather in the short-term it is ridiculous to believe we can predict it in the longer term. Therefore we should “cut our teeth” on the relatively simpler task of regional and short-term forecasts where we can more easily validate models.

Priorities for the future

1. To eradicate the “make do and mend” culture of those compiling the climate metrics in which they attend to turn a pigs ear into a silk purse, taking data from instruments wholly unsuited for the purpose they are now being used for. It is an absolute priority that we urgently replace both the instruments and organisations and replace them with people and equipment up to the job. This may involve a global investment in monitoring sites, or alternatively methods of calibrating satellite data as well as launching a new satellite(s) to cover the poles.
2. We must urgently reconcile the discrepancy between “global temperature” and the climate models, no as has been the habit in the last decade, by changing the method of compiling the temperature data to “shoe-horn” it into the models, but instead by critically evaluating the failures of all models to predict the pause”.
3. We must continue monitoring climate, and indeed, should be aiming for more global coverage of key metrics.
4. There should be a particular drive to understand the linkage between climate and polar ice-sheets.
5. The main research focus should move to short-term climate/ long-term weather prediction at a regional scale. This will have the dual benefit of increasing the knowledge of climate as well as making long-range weather forecasts more accurate.
6. We must move to depoliticise climate science and particularly climate advice given to global governments and instead focus on credible empirical measurements. As such it is recommended the IPCC is split into two organisations. The first should be solely concerned with creating a “state of the global climate” review using quality metrics. It would need to employ its own staff to compile these metrics This organisation should focus on data and as such would not tolerate any climate activism of any form.
7. In addition, there should be a secondary organisation, entirely separate from the first, and filled with those knowledgeable about the climate, economics and industrial & agricultural impacts (from both private and public sector). They should be tasked with taking the available data, creating forecasts for climate as a whole: meaning possible cooling and warming, and developing cost projections for various policies and contingencies. Again climate activists would be barred from taking part. It is further strongly suggested that those giving their advice should be paid.