I’ve just been to some prepper forums and I can honestly say that they haven’t a clue that we are standing right on the edge of nuclear war.

Rationally, this is exactly how the Russians would want to start a nuclear exchange: with no one in the west even talking about the possibility. So, minimal interest in so called “prepper” sites.

However my confidence in those sites, which didn’t start very high, has just fallen through the floor. There is now a realistic pathway to nuclear war within days, and they are all but silent? Do the Russians run them all? Or do they just respond to the latest article in some CIA produced propaganda rag mag dressed up as “information from an anonymous sauce” (misspelling intended)

So I went to the people who know the least and give least information – the snoozepapers … and it’s much of the same dross we always get. What there is, is clearly the result of some more press releases or other using “nuclear” as a way to get headlines  and not genuine concern.

Are there no other options for the Russians?

That is the crux question. And, knowing how Trump “thinks”, he will imagine that he’s some “genius” poker player who has given the Russians only one option which the Russians see is the total destruction of their country, and Trump will imagine that forcing the Russians to accept his bluff or nuclear war will lead to only one outcome. It will, but the Russians will obviously pick nuclear war. Except they know Trump is a prat and I guess they know he’s a bluffer.

This is utterly crazy. Even the prepper nutters aren’t showing any alarm. Everything is quiet, yet logically, within days, the Russians will be in a position where I can see no option but nuclear war … and I have absolutely no doubt they will do it.

But, is there no alternative?

The Russians have been very good at pulling out alternative options from the hat when I imagined there was none left. So, just because I can’t see any other alternative, doesn’t mean there isn’t one.

What I do know, is that the Russians totally pulled the wool over the eyes of western “intelligence”. So, they have no ideas about the scale or intent of Russia preparation. They are more clueless in that regard than I am.

However, I am totally lacking information about Russia alternative actions.

Conclusions

1. Given that everyone is clueless, there is no point trying to talk with anyone about this, let alone trying to persuade others to get ready.
2. The most likely outcome based on the available evidence is nuclear war within days.
3. The most likely outcome based on the evidence I do not know, is probably not war … but there might be a margin of error for that conclusion, given I have absolutely no idea what might stop a nuclear war now.
4. There is very little anyone can do to protect themselves from a nuclear war.
5. I have a lot of the key essentials like milk bottles and gaffa tape. Other than the limited list which is very different from prepper site ones, there is not a lot most people can practically do. So, as no one is going to listen to the list, I’m not going to bother to compile it.
6. In the current situation, there is nothing that can be done to help others. No one is going to believe it is coming … indeed, though rationally war looks pretty overwhelmingly likely, it is hard for me to take that rational argument seriously.

Goodbye

If war does occur, then this could well be my last post. So, I would just like to take the opportunity to thank anyone who may read this.

Of course, from a gambling perspective, it is much better to bet on no war. Because no one in the future is going to read this if this is the last post, but if it isn’t, I get the kudos afterwards of predicting the war wasn’t going to happen.

So, even if a 80% chance of this being the last article, the only winning option is to bet on the 20% chance that nothing will happen.