Like most people, I like to think that I’m right most of the time, not as bad as the morons who think they are right all the time, but I want to believe that I’m right most of the time.
But, the reality is that the longer I live, the more I realise I got things wrong. I don’t like to admit the, but for example, I didn’t spot the true appalling Totalitarian tyranny behind covid. It’s only afterwards that we see we were duped. Most people at that point would purge everything to hide that fact and thereby hide from themselves that they were wrong.
But, I want to get things right, and the only way to be right is to face the fact that we get things wrong and to admit it. So, I’m not hiding the fact I got covid wrong to start with.
So, I would start with say a 90% chance that I’m right all the time. Then reality begins to sink in and that starts falling 80%, 70%, and that is for someone who actually admits they get an awful lot wrong and so does attempt to change the way I do things to get better. But, the harder I try to be better at getting things right, the lower my own expectation of “what I got wrong below the waterline of the ice-berg”.
I look back at history and see how people in the past made massive mistakes, like the Celtic myth. I look today and see how people who believe they are “accurate” repeat the Celtic myth with absolutely no concern or regard to the real truth as outlined by Caesar.
And, the more areas I look at, the more I see the same behaviour. Clearly dishonest assertions repeated as if true.
The reality is that what I see as false, is only the tip of the iceberg, and so, I have to accept that an awful lot of what I believe is true, is almost certainly the same bogus codswallop.
Of course, by focussing on what I get wrong, I may be doing the same to what I get right. Only thinking about the “highlights” and forgetting what I now treat as “commonplace” and “obvious”. So, I don’t think I should go down below 50% right, but I do think that is a reasonable estimate of how much I do get right.
But, I am using a far better process than most people. I do TRY to admit my mistakes. So I do try to improve and do better than 50%. But that means those who are not admitting their mistakes and continue to push the same lies without concern, are almost certainly getting over 50% wrong.
That is an appalling condemnation of our society at the present time. Most of what people believe is wrong. But it is a rational estimate.
What do I mean “right”. Well, if we look back 1000 years to see what they believed the truth was about the world, they believed a lot which later evidence has proven wrong. There is absolutely no reason to believe we will do any better. Indeed with the deep state googling much of the global population, there is good reason to believe that truth is in decline as the ability to resist lies and misinformation from Google and its ilk is getting repressed.
Google will not exist in a thousand years … it probably will not make it to the end of the century, indeed, given how it is attempting to overthrow government, I’d put a 50% chance of it being broken up within the decade. So, when people look back, what they will see is all the hatred that those who broke up Google expressed towards that loathsome organisation. It will be entirely cast in the colours of those who broke it up … and quite rightly. This period will be particularly rich for such besmirching of the loathsome creatures that inhabit the internet global scumite. They will be cast as the quintessential masters of evil of our time.
But, that also means that the people of our time will be tarred with the same brush. No one differentiates the people of Germany from the German National Socialists. Likewise our generation will be seen as clapping on the murder of people through covid jabs, the covid gain-of-function virus, the Ukraine war, the Palestinian genocide. That is how history will portray us … an evil time … controlled by evil corpse. And, quite rightly.
… But, of course, by my own estimate, half of the above is wrong. But, which half? Is Google far worse than I imagine? Is it at all possible that it is the hero of the piece trying to save us (LOL … that’s a moon landing conspiracy if ever there was!)
Is Trump really part of the swamp … rather than working against it? Could Biden have been a good guy? The reality of history, looking back, is that people genuinely believed things that turned out to be entirely untrue. Although those people tended to be the people who got to power, not the common folk whose voice was largely unrecorded. Indeed, getting to power usually involves manufacturing a tissue of lies, so, it is not surprising that the liars are the most gullible and lying people all rolled in one.
Do I honestly believe half of what I think is wrong?
No, but I do have to face the fact that the same is true of everyone I see who is undoubtedly wrong, whether it is history or whether it is today. People who have no leg to stand on to support their views, genuinely do seem to think they are right.
So, even if I have to accept the evidence that I am often little better than everyone else, even if I do try to take account of the fact I often get things wrong, it is still very hard for me to accept my mistakes, and far too easy to glory in my successes … only to later find I was actually wrong to glory.
Is it possible that 50% is an overestimate?
Of course it is. But I look at what people wrote in the past, and I see that they genuinely believed things that the evidence has since proven wrong.
Am I counting the obvious mountain tops of mistakes, and ignoring the vast bulk of good honest work? That is a possibility. Just because the conclusion being reached is proven wrong by later evidence, that doesn’t mean that 90% of the argument wasn’t good work.
In history, we tend to see the summaries of what people believed, not the groundwork.
Rethink
If Ii were to write down 100 “facts”, I think in 1000 years time 50% of those would be considered wrong. That’s a reasonable conclusion.
But, if I were to write down the argument supporting those facts, then perhaps 80-90% of those statements in that argument may be considered right.
If I say 85% of my work is good, then … as I try hard, to be accurate, then I would say that I’m in the top part of society. So, perhaps the average is 75%. Which means the people I call idiots (politicians) likely are around 65% … or 2/3.
Of course, I have to be fair to politicians. It’s far easier to do a good job on assessing global temperature (and therefore much more of a crime to lie about it as they do), than to do a good job on foreign relations. A sceptic-scientist should be offering their resignation if they got less than 95% of their work right. A diplomat is happy if they are right most of the time.
In praise of the politicians
The other fact I should admit, is that it is far easier to be right when no one is reading your work, because it is far easier to admit when we are wrong. The more high profile an individual, the less mistakes are tolerated and therefore the harder it is for them to admit how often they get things wrong. Therefore they are more likely to be wrong, because they will never learn from their mistakes (except the biggest mistake of public life: admitting you were wrong = admitting others around you were wrong -> stabs in the back).
They are inherently liars … and people who do well as politicians are either systemic liars, or are sociopaths who care nothing for the opinions of others. There are perhaps a few noble politicians who will admit their mistakes, but they never get to the top.
… and here I must apply my own rule. That is just as likely to be wrong as right. Perhaps they are all evil criminals attempting to bamboozle us in their power-hungry grab for power? But, on the other hand, perhaps they all started with good intent and became what they were “because of the system” (Sorry … I admit I can make mistakes, but after covid, I’m never going to believe politicians the kind of people we should have running government!)
Those who think they are best …often prove to be the worst
During covid, those doctors who arrogantly assumed they had “superior” knowledge of science, were by and large the most gullible and as a result, evil people in society. They killed people, and that is a simple fact. They delivered an untested treatment that proved to kill far more than it saved and in that process the doctors not only wrecked those who had the jab, but the lives of children whose education was wrecked at a key stage, or those REAL doctors who fought the appalling lies of big pharma. Not to mention the companies that went bust, the jobs lost, the people now struggling because of the inflation, the move to a constant attack on our rights and liberties … all because the most arrogant people … the doctors … were the most gullible.
I think I get things right more often than most people. I look at the doctors who had the same opinion of themselves and I know they got covid wrong … as does the vast majority of evidence, so that is a well supported view on my part that the doctors should be ashamed of themselves.
But, that does suggest, that those who imagine they are better … may be worse than average. And, I therefore have to take that into account.
I might try to actively look for evidence to support my views. I might believe I “listen to both sides” but, I don’t listen to the British National Socialist Brainwashing Cult, even on the genocide in Palestine of the people of Jesus. I might resist the temptation to rewrite my history to remove all the mistakes I make. So I think I am better than most, but is that just doctor’s arrogance and am I really any better than anyone else? Indeed, the very fact I think I am better, may be because I am entirely unrealistic about myself and that means I am more gullible than most.
But, at least I accept that possibility.
