We now seem to have entered a new phase of CV in the UK with a much faster growth in cases since 27th feb. This is likely because so many CV cases are now entering the UK becasue the pandemic is now spreading in numerous countries. At the current rate of increase it is likely to increase by 10x every 9 days, which is lower than Wuhan, but it may still accelerate further.
However based on the current projectory, the number of cases being reported would reach around 4000 by 20th April. As this was the point S.Korea gave had to admit its health services could no longer cope with all the patients and some started dying before they were being seen, we can more or less say that in 17 days the same sort of crisis is likely to occur in the UK.
To put it simply – if you’re going to be ill, do it before the 17th or not for another 3-6 months.
On a more sombre note, I’m expecting the first (UK based) death to occur in the next few days. By next week I’m anticipating ~240 cases and ~10 deaths. By 20th about 100 deaths.
To put this in context, I estimate that a person commuting by crowded train at the moment has about a 1 in 100 chance of being on a train with someone who has CV. In 10 days time that will be 1 in 10. By 23rd March every commute (there and back) will have someone with CV on it.
