I’ve been doing some reading on Doomsday cults and research on cognitive dissonance which has allowed me to get a better understanding of the climate cult. Unfortunately, that research suggests that even when Doomsday cults like the Climate Cult have their prophecies of doomsday proved false, that they merely ignore the fact the prophecies were wrong and a new prophecy is created. So, proving them wrong will not make them disappear, indeed, there is a suggestion that the leaders use the perceived attacks to re-invigorate the cult beliefs of being “special” and “under attack”.
Unfortunately, the only thing none of this research has explained, is how to stop doomsday cults. But by inference, it appears they disappear as soon as the academic researchers & press stop being interested in them. In short – these cults appear to be a form of attention seeking, and stop paying them attention and they’ll fade away.
So they are best ignored, but that still leaves the real question of what is happening to the climate. At present, there’s not the slightest hint of any adverse trends in the climate, indeed, the modest warming is not only very beneficial to humanity, but it is taking us away from the possibility of sudden and REALLY catastrophic cooling. So, for the last few years of the El Nino & the raised temperatures it caused, I’ve been having a pretty relaxed time with no concerns at all about the global climate.
Also, despite many going on about much cooler conditions in American this spring, elsewhere the (British) Biased Corp are lying about warming. So, I’m totally ignoring anecdotal Biased Corp style lies about short term localised weather events.
However, yesterday, I spotted that the ENSO index on Watts Up With That had changed so it was only just on El Nino. That raises the possibility that we are heading toward a La Nina and potentially a significantly cooler period. There are two general scenarios which I have to treat separately:
A short La Nina with little cooling and return to El Nino
This may sound an odd prediction, having said we are over-due a La Nina, but I have reasons to believe that it is possible that El Ninos will be more prevalent in the next few decades. This then raises the question of how to interpret the higher temperature. Is the temperature higher than the “proper” global temperature due to El Nino, or is the proper global temperature inclusive of El Nino if there is a run of El Ninos? Personally, this is my preferred scenario, because it means the climate will be securely stable for many years to come, but because there’s absolutely no way to “win an argument” on climate, I will be more or less able to ignore climate as an issue.
A sustained La Nina with sustained Cooling
Having stated that I would like to see El Nino return, this is clearly my least preferred option. First, it will provide clear and undeniable proof that the doomsday climate cult was just that. However, as I said at the start, all such cults do, when faced with clear evidence their prophecies were bogus, is to change the prediction. So, there is no realistic prospect of those gullible morons who buy into the climate cult changing their view. But the evidence will be there to any who want to view it. That will be far more frustrating than a moronic climate cult ignoring the evidence, at a time when the evidence is nuanced and requires real expertise to interpret. I can forgive the morons for not having my expertise, but when the evidence is so clear that even the morons in academia ought to be able to recognise it, then it will certainly be frustrating to me that they don’t get it (or to be more exact, I will have failed to explain it to them).
But, far worse my own frustrations, if we don’t get El Nino conditions settling in, then there is a finite prospect of catastrophic global warming developing … both in the physical sense of a precipitous decline in global temperature, … but equally annoying for me, a second doomsday cult to AUGMENT the first cult of doomsday global warming morons. So, not one cult of Morons … but two moronic cults, possibly feeding off each other in endless debates about how the world is going to end in a mere 10 years. Because whilst the likelihood of catastrophic global cooling is small, albeit finite, what the global warming cult shows, is that these doomsday cult need no real evidence or actual threat to grow to become worldwide phenomenon.
And whilst I can be absolutely certain that global warming is not a threat, I cannot in all honestly ever say that global cooling is not a threat … because it is a real and massive threat … even if the chance is only something like 1 in 20 in a lifetime.
Risk Analysis
Warming
It is not currently warming, there is no harm from warming and the climate does not allow warming above the peak of the interglacial. Thus whilst a very few places might be subject to issues with a warmer climate, overwhelmingly there is not the slightest concern about warming. However, there is always the potential for unknown unknowns so I will rate the risk as 1/10
Cooling
The world has cooled in the last few years and cooling will undoubtedly lead to millions and likely billions of deaths long-term. However recent cooling can be explained by changes in ENSO, so it’s only cooling in the sense of coming out of a La Nina. But, many proclaim that sunspots will lead us to cooling, however, I’m yet to be convinced there is a strong link, but there may be reason to believe there could be some cooling. However, on the other side, CO2 is a reason for modest warming. Thus overall, the effects of CO2 may offset sunspots, so it seems cooling is not necessarily to be expected. However, with ENSO heading toward La Nina, the threat level now increases +1/10 (+2/10 if we reach La Nina, +3/10 if we get significant cooling). When I last looked at this, I also increased the threat because there are idiots who would intentionally try to cool the climate, or indeed, the climate cult is so insane it could trigger WWIII and a nuclear winter, so another +1/10. I’ve also added +1/10 for unknown unknowns, making a total of 3/10.
