Engineering is an area which academics least well understand. This is largely because in the UK & US there is a cultural dislike by public-sector Universities of all things industrial, commercial, but worst of all … a group who are actually better than academics at understanding many subjects.
Global warming is one of these (hence the hatred directed at us). Academics just can’t fathom how we “engineers” just look at the data and can take all their hard work and just say “rubbish”. And even worse, they hate it most of all when with our down to earth approach we make better forecasts than they (and boy do they hate it!).
Here are a few reasons for the difference:
- The world’s climate is a complex system that cannot be modelled in any meaningful way, so it falls outside the type of systems which academics are taught to work with.
- Engineers have a wealth of experience with similarly complex systems – where far from more and more complex analysis being better, often simple is best, So we have a wealth of experience developing and using “rules of thumb” that work, which just don’t find the academic ethos.
- Academics are arrogant because they believe their “superior” knowledge means they know more. In contrast engineers have been beaten into humility by our experience of the real world. (Although – now academics are finding out what it’s like to be a novice engineer faced with their first crisis as the real life system doesn’t work as the textbooks say they ought.
- Engineers are focussed on decision making, we learn a wealth of techniques to make highly complex decisions involving a huge raft of areas: science, sociology, finance. Such as can a safe, reliable & “pretty” bridge be built for X million?
- Academics have no training in decision making in issues where knowledge is lacking. The are excessively focussed on one area of knowledge and so can’t see the big picture or use knowledge from outside their own speciality. But worst of all they are only trained to look at what they can make sense of … and if they can’t make sense of it … then they have no tools or techniques to work with … in other words … they have not a clue what to do.
I’ve often compared engineers to doctors. We both deal with hugely complex systems – which cannot be cut apart to work out what is actually going on. We both have limited means (time, money) and we both have deal with real people, etc.
But the main similarity is that both doctors and engineers have to view their subjects “holistically” — or perhaps “whole-istically”. There are a million and one reasons why machinery can go “wrong” from poor maintenance, to the wrong fuel, to “driver stupidity”. Likewise, a doctor has to be aware that many similar problems can cause the same symptoms. And the really big difference between doctors/engineers and academics is the human factor. Because unlike academics who can e.g. just say “well it’s just a stupid operator”, an engineer has to view the people who use machinery as part of the issue. Not only that, but the legal aspects, the commercial aspects. Likewise the doctor has to treat the patient not the body.
The result is that academics seem to be clueless about the human factor (hence the regular “conspiracy ideation” rhetoric. What this is really saying is: “you are blaming the human factor for things going wrong – we academics believe humans are all wonderful people who never make mistakes or fake measurements to take an early lunch break).
So, e.g. when academics publish a “global temperature”. They see this as a pure academic exercise amounting to little more than finding a way to weight the readings so as to show their “global warming”. They don’t e.g. make any attempt to verify the thermometers are accurate (unless they show a long term drop in temperature – when they seem to be removed without further assessment), they don’t quality check the data, they have almost no concern how anyone uses their data and they really couldn’t care less if the economy goes to rack and ruin and even millions die because their data is substandard.
But in the real world – the one where real people buy and sell real things – where real people struggle for money for health care, jobs, family, education. People expect things not only to work, but to work reliably. And real people have standards and so feel that if someone in an advert e.g. tells them a fact, that that fact has to be true – not because the advertiser says it is, but because they have data to back it up.
But academics don’t even work to the lowest standard of cheap advertisers. They refuse to publish the data proving their assertions in a way that no one else in society would be allowed to do. They refuse to have their work audited by outside people. The result is that we have people who can’t use excel compiling global temperature figures – from sensors that I will guarantee they have not checked themselves are fit for the purpose they intend.
And this is why engineers get so angry with the dumb stupid academics who fumble around with their figures and their models apparently blind to the real economic and social harm being caused by their appalling work which would shame a back street junk yard.
Climate Engineering
So, what I believe we now need is a professional group of “climate engineers”. Not “engineering” in the sense used by academics as people whose job it is to change the climate, but instead a professional group who look at the climate in the way engineers look at all problems: whole-istically – with a view to the real costs both socially and economically. With a view to making good quality decisions – not just stuffing out poor qualilty data and then ranting on some blog.
What we need is a group with the professional ethics and quality standards to ensure measurements are fit for purpose, but above all, a group who has the experience dealing with other complex systems to help policy makers make financially, economically, socially, environmentally, scientifically, sensible decisions.
I agree completely; but the current crop of mechanical, civil, electrical, and chemical engineers are fully capable of doing a proper job if invited/requested.
I build houses for a living, designing them to be durable and livable and beautiful.
When the World Trade Center was being built in NYC years ago, I and other builders watched it go up in HORROR because it had only an elevator shaft system as the internal support and all the rest of the support was in the outer walls which were mainly windows with cathedral-style shafts rising up to the top with zero internal ties to anything else.
No ‘honey comb’ system was used because the builders claimed, this would interfere with designing open office spaces.
My husband worked there on the 66th floor for one year when I came in and said, ‘I would rather support you than have you work here.’ He quit, got a cheaper job and survived.
Yes, engineers, when paid enough or arrogant enough, can design terrible disasters and none of the architects who made these buildings were put on trial for endangering lives.
About fixing the global warming mess: they are openly lying about everything, changing the data, shifting the goal posts, ignoring bad predictions and making more bad predictions and no one can fix this except by ending the entire mess and firing all the staff and cease teaching ‘climate’ at universities and relegate it back to the weather men who actually read the thermometers and work for airports, etc.
I remember as a chlld eating breakfast at sunrise, listening to the farmer’s report on the radio which told farmers exactly what the weather was doing or going to possibly do in the future. They were quite scrupulous to not make mistakes!
Today, any farmer listening to future forecasts will be quickly bankrupted. I know for a fact, they ignore NOAA and use the older system still which still runs, quietly, in the background, never making the news.
It’s the engineering ethos of quality and the experience of real life problems that’s needed. So, they need to be good engineers + they need the experience + they need time to develop as climate engineers.
The first place to start would be to get engineers to create the global network needed to obtain some indication of global temperature – instead of people in academia who are absolutely clueless about the subject and could be fobbed off with crap because they are so gullible.
We have this, called ‘satellites’ which are ignored by the clowns running the global warming scam. NASA has been totally destroyed (beginning with all the launch disasters and then relying on the Monster in the Kremlin, Putin, to get in and out of space!).
I do think that there’s something fundamentaly wrong with academic science being used as an end product. The goal of science is to keep miving on, not get it right before you present it to the world. There’s no mecahnism for fact and detail checking, it relies wholly on the quality of the individual scientists who may or may not be influenced by personal biases. Science even rewards people for not reaching a conclusion because once science it really settled, you’d stop publishing papers on it.
It also lacks a driving force. Apart from grant committees there doesn’t seem to be anyone choosing where scientists concentrate their studies. As a certain someone demonstrated, few people even know what CO2 sensitivity is and yet it’s the single most important number that climate science needs to ascertain. There’s a lot of time and money spent on temperature reconstructions but nobody has yet demonstrated which, if any, of the proxies actually work. The work seems to focus on quantity rather than quality… and doesn’t even achieve that.
The other thing that is lacking is an governing force. One that seeks out bad behaviour and punishes it. One that sets standards and enforces them.
Not all of these are engineering fields, we’ve just learnt how to work under them. We don’t know if climate scientists could adapt themselves to such a regime, because nobody’s tried it.
Martin Armstrong […if you haven’t yet heard of him, don’t look him up on Wiki – They trash him as he poses a threat to the establishment] is a climate skeptic. He has a rapidly growing following throughout the world.
here is what he wrote today: http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/37141
Until someone can show a plot of past, present and future temperatures and they can be checked against reality, it’s all guessing.
here it is: http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/24126 😉