A remarkable event has occurred. “Global warming” the blue eyed boy of the politically correct and environmentalists has fallen down the ranking and behind the more scientific and impartial: “climate change”.
Google Trends 2004 to present – “Global Warming”(blue) & “Climate Change” (Red)
Above is a plot of the relative number of google searches for “Global warming” (blue) and “Climate change” (red).
Global warming is one of the early great causes on the internet, rising steadily for the first few years of recorded searches until it’s peak in 2007. Then almost as suddenly, it went into terminal decline which nothing but Climategate seemed to be able to altar. (Climategate can be recognised from the peak in “climate change”).
In contrast “Climate Change” has remained pretty level except for one event: Climategate. This suggests those with an interest in Climategate tend to favour “Climate change” rather than “Global warming” strongly suggesting that a change in the relative frequency indicates rising scepticism.
But there is also a strong yearly trend. One might think this is related to temperature but it is not. To understand this trend we fist need to recognise that the strongest pattern is one that fits with the academic year. The biggest drop is exactly when we’d expect the opposite: in the hottest part of the year. This corresponds to the long summer break away from PC indoctrination. The other big drop is Xmas/New Year which being observed at the same time across much of the world, also provides another strong dip. But other holidays are at different times, so if we look only at the English statistics below we can see a very distinct relationship to the academic year for both search terms:-
Google Trends 2014 England only – “Global Warming”(blue) & “Climate Change” (Red)
Now, because the English schools have pretty much the same holidays, we can not only spot the Easter breaks but even half term holidays. And looking below at the 90day trend we can see that globally the weekend is the time least people search for “Global Warming” or “Climate Change”. By my estimation (looking 2010-2015) searches for “global warming” fall to around a 1/5 their term time value in the summer, he figure is slightly less with “Climate change” with around 2/3. This suggests 80% of all “interest” in”global warming” and 66% of “interest” for “Climate Change” is generated directly by academics. And the fall in “Global Warming” at half terms indicates this indoctrination is occurring in Schools (Universities don’t have the same half terms). Talk about indoctrination!
The decline of Global warming
Google Trends (last year) – “Global Warming”(blue) & “Climate Change” (Red)
However, the key point of this article is that except for a very few blips, interest in “Global warming” has been declining whereas “climate change” has hardly changed. Since “Global Warming” is clearly the more PC term/alarmist term, it will (was) a momentous occasion when that threshold is crossed. So “when will or has ‘Global Warming’ dropped below ‘Climate Change’?”
Google Trends (last 90 days) – “Global Warming”(blue) & “Climate Change” (Red)
Looking a the last 90 days, January 2015 starts with Global warming higher globally, and we are clearly heading toward parity with almost the same.
Google Trends (last 30 days) “Global Warming”(blue) & “Climate Change” (Red)
But if we look at the last 30 days we can see that March started with “Global Warming” just higher, with Global Warming higher on only 4 days out of 16 (25%) but it ends with “Global Warming” just lower than “Climate Change” so that …
Globally 9 out of the last 14 days (64%) “Global Warming” has been beaten by “Climate Change”.
Regional trends (Main English speaking
However, compiling the plot of English academic year, I noticed that this change has not been uniformly globally. So, below is the approximate dates at which “Global warming” became less important than “climate change” for various English speaking areas:
- 2008: Scotland
- 2009: Australia
- 2013: England, UK, Canada
- 2014: US, Philippines
- 2015: S.Africa?
- >2015: India (Still 4:1 in favour of “global warming”)
Now, the first shock for me is that Scotland isn’t down below India. Because generally those most zealous for the global warming fad tend to have the highest interest in “Global Warming”. So those India, S.Africa, etc. tend to where we now find the bigger interest in this issue, also tend to favour “global warming”.
My perception is that Scotland is amongst the most pigheadedly anti-industry/CO2 regimes in the world. So, was sure it would in amongst the “johnny come lately alarmists”. Apparently not.
Google Trends
Initially eveyone called it global warming because we had warming. When the warming stopped those who were driving the hysteria changed to climate change but the public stuck with global warming. Quite a few academics are quite angry that the public aren’t maleable enough to accept the about face. The pesky devils realised that global warming required warming and despite the warmists attempts to attribute every weather event to CO2, the public aren’t as dumb as they’re treated. However it’s clear that the migration from ‘global warming’ to ‘climate change’ is a planned effect.
I think it’s very interesting how schools are featuring so clearly in the stats. It probably gives planners a false sense of public engagement. I’m sure that they would think it only right that kids are being brain washed but probably haven’t made a study of how little effect that early indoctrination has on public opinion once people start paying bills.
On the other hand, with today’s generation of young adults having little desire to leave the hotel of Mum and Dad, they never get to grow up and realise that ‘saving the planet’ has a cost. There is probably the bones of an academic paper on how the education system is skewing perception of interest in AGW and climate change.
Yes it is important for us realists to refer to ‘it’ as Global Warming (I always try to use upper case), to show the opposition that we have not bought the lies.
On the subject of school indoctrination, our middle grandson wrote a stonking answer for his higher geography question on Global Warming the other year.
His mother went mental at me for mentoring him in the realities over the years, insisting he would be failed.
Unbelievably he got an ‘A’ and is now at Uni doing science and physics.
There are still a few rationalists left in the education/indoctrination system – leastwise in Scotland. Nil desperendum.
I tell my children “global warming is bonkers” (but in more detail). And then I say: “but your teachers will likely expect something different. So, you must learn not to write the truth, but to write what those marking will want to hear.
– Classic example was in writing “what are the main properties of electromagnetic waves”. Of course I was talking about defraction polarisation, wave-particle duality. Then we looked at the notes and it said “frequency = C/wavelength”. And that isn’t a property of EM waves – but just a mathematical relationship – but never-the-less that was what the teacher wanted to read!
CO2 hysteria is bonkers. But temperatures do change, and people know it. The problem is the bill of goods being sold by activists posing as scientists.
Changing weather and climate is not about CO2. It has everything to do with water heated by shortwave solar radiation, stored and circulating in complex patterns, driven by the temperature differential between the equator and the poles. Scientists are gaining insight into the temperature dynamics of our water world.
“From 1920 to 2012, there are roughly two warm IPO (Interdecadal Oscillation) phases (1924–1945 and 1977–1998, with warm SSTs in the central and eastern tropical Pacific) and two cold IPO phases (1946–1976 and 1999–2012, with cold SSTs in the same region). The most recent cold IPO phase is still continuing. We found that phase switches of the IPO are concurrent with major climate transitions over the globe, including abrupt shifts in SST, SLP, T and P.”
Living on our water world means our temperatures and precipitation fluctuate according to ocean circulations and oscillations, especially ENSO and IPO patterns in the Pacific basin.
https://rclutz.wordpress.com/2015/04/05/climate-report-from-the-water-world/
In the news in London today: the death rate of elderly British women is rising DUE TO THE WEATHER. That is, the cold.