Alarmists all but admitting lower forecast below 2C

Posted on 29 March 2015 by Scottish-Sceptic

There’s been a recent spate of stories hitting the news to the effect that the 2C limit is too high. From the number and uniform tone, these are clearly part of an orchestrated campaign. So what is this campaign?
The obvious answer is that the alarmist propaganda machine has got wind that the climate academics can no longer ignore the pause. This can only mean one thing: the spectacular failure of the models to predict the pause will is threatening to force them to modify them predictions to below 2C. That’s hardly surprising. There was only ever three decades of warming after the 1970s global cooling scare. So now with 18 years of pause it is increasingly difficult to just ignore it.
But if they drop the predictions below 2C – bang goes any reason for all those birdmincers. That must be why they need to lower the bar below 2C.
But that in itself would be crazy. We’ve seen no adverse trend. Global sea ice is back to normal, no adverse trend in extreme weather, droughts, floods and snow are just as common as they always were. The only actual global trends appear to be a reduction in hurricanes and an increase in CO2 which is boosting crop yields worldwide.
Just as the evidence from the pause shows that CO2 does not cause the warming predicted, the evidence shows there’s less of a threat than predicted.
So, they must be desperate if they are trying to get this 2C limit lowered.

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5 Responses to Alarmists all but admitting lower forecast below 2C

  1. John Smith says:
    29 March 2015 at 23:56

    I’m fascinated to watch what form the walk back takes.
    As the warmist’s technical paradigm collapses, they appear to be ratcheting up the fear mongering and the attacks on skeptics.
    Rear guard actions covering the retreat?

  2. catweazle666 says:
    30 March 2015 at 00:12

    The most basic parameter that all of the alarmism is based on is ‘climate sensitivity’.
    Here are the IPCC assessments of that parameter.
    IPCC First assessment report 1.9 to 5.2°C, but states “…hence the models results do not justify altering the previously accepted range of 1.5 to 4.5°C
    IPCC Second Assessment Report 2 to 4.5 C”
    IPCC Third Assessment Report 1.5 to 4.5 °C
    IPCC Fourth Assessment Report 2 to 4.5 °C
    IPCC Fifth Assessment Report 1.5°C to 4.5°C
    How many billions has it cost to get absolutely nowhere?
    Good, innit?

  3. Ima Debatin' (@ImaBannedd) says:
    30 March 2015 at 02:36

    It’s worth noting that most recent estimates of TCR and ECS are close to or even below low end IPCC estimates.

  4. Scottish-Sceptic says:
    30 March 2015 at 10:15

    The way you can ramp up predictions is to make them super-sensitive to a select years – so end at a short-term rapid rise __/, you can use this like a ski ramp to predict an enormous exponentially increasing jump. But then just as they are super-sensitive to warming, they are super-sensitive to none warming – which will likely be predicted forward as massive cooling. __/\

  5. emsnews says:
    30 March 2015 at 16:57

    ‘Normal’ for us is ‘super cold’ for ancient Minoan men and women who ran around with nothing on top (except for a little sleeve top showing the titties for women) when it was significantly warmer than any time in the 20th century.
    And we still see no one farming in Greenland raising cows and crops like the Vikings did so easily during the Medieval Warm Period.
    And it is now well into spring and the high in Greenland was -40º F.

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