Nut Zero, if it had happened (which it could not … but if it had), would have been not just the destruction of the entire modern global economy … which is now reliant on fossil fuels, but, the impact would be far worse.
Because people before the industrial revolution, could only live the life they lived because of years of training to live in the economy at that time. Not, just by people on a farm, but those people also in turn relied on others for things like iron or copper or if we go back far enough for flint. As far as we go back, there was a reliance on others who also had years to perfect their craft so that everyone could live. Every stage of civilisation requires a infrastructure of other people and resources … and most people only barely survive when everything is just right. You can’t take a modern person and throw them into the stone-age and expect them to survive. It might take a couple dozen generations until humans are even doing nearly as well as whatever stage of development they went back to.
Likewise, the landscape had matured in harmony with those who lived there. So, for example, in the past there were animals to hunt.. Animals survived by being the ones that were just beyond the human ability to hunt them. So, modern animals are not the same as ancient ones … they are far harder to catch without modern technology.
Take away the modern technology (which last only till the ammo runs out) and the animals left have evolved to be skittish at the first sign of humans, and to get several hundred meters away. For people trying to fling rocks … those animals are beyond their means to catch.
But, it will be far worse!
If 70million people suddenly began starving due to Nut Zero in the UK … the first thing to go, would be any and all large animals. Not just every cow, sheep and horse would be stolen and slaughtered, but every dog and cat, and also every fox, badger, deer, rat, snails … if it moved and was edible, it would be eaten.
In my area, there are about 1000 people for each deer. Whilst, there is no doubt, that no individual is ever going to secure a reliable supply of deer … whilst humans still live, there will be 1000 people trying to catch each deer. So, whilst the people starve, the deer are ALL killed.
The result would be the extinction of most large animal speeches, followed by the extinction of most human populations. Almost no one would survive, because almost everything that people needed to live off, would be consumed in the global famine that Nut Zero caused.
Who would survive?
The best candidates for survival are those communities who are already most self-reliant and who have access to local resources. Indeed, arguably, those who were last to the industrial revolution, will be the best candidates for survival.
In the UK, we are probably talking about a few remote islands, which would be difficult to reach during the famine, and so would have least of their resources plundered by the starving population of the mainland. The faster the collapse, and the quicker fuel for boats, etc. disappears, the better the chances of these small communities. They will suffer, but not nearly as much as people and animals on the mainland.
Globally, the “poorest” countries, would undoubtedly see their populations plummet, but large numbers would survive … although with the same massive assault on wildlife. But, despite having a rapid velopment (if that is the opposite of de-velopment) … a rapid velopment to the stone-age … not iron, there being few iron source that are now readily available using primitive technology, it all having been worked out long ago … and indeed, no copper, or any other modern costly mineral.
Basically, the world would rapidly return, not so much to “stone age”, but “pre-stoneage”, because the skills of living in the stone age have been lost to most groups. What we think of as “Stone age groups” would be the few advanced civilisations.
Yes, there would be some remnants of the modern world. In particular scrap iron would be the prime source of iron for generations. But, that also means, there would be no development of mining. So, by the time all the iron had rusted, the technology to smelt iron would be lost. Rapidly everything else would decay as well … because houses would be damp and almost all books would …. probably be burnt, by a population starved of fuel for heating.
Yes, sure the odd globalist would emerge from their bunker when the food ran out and try to reassert their control using the guns and ammo that they had hoarded, along with a few other people to be their soldiers … the soldiers would then kill the globalists, and soon the soldiers would run out of ammo and die. So, they would die out and we can ignore them.
Back on the development ladder
Of course people, after the collapse, would start to progress again. But, the problem is that the last development of civilisation used up all the easily available resources. So, there is no easily available copper in the UK, there is very little easily available coal, and that which there is, is very poor quality. Iron might be easier, but, without the knowledge to find it and process it, iron is pretty useless.
The question I have is this: would there be enough resources, to develop society enough to create a viable economy that can get to the “next stage” of technology evolution, through all the various stages? It seems unlikely.
It is certain that the industrial revolution could not happen again in the UK or Europe as all the easy to mine mineral and coal disappeared long ago. A new industrial revolution would have to occur somewhere else, where there is easy to mine coal, but where, for some reason that coal was left in the ground. In other words, coal that is viable using medieval mining technologies, but which was ignored when later mining technology became available. Unless there is such a place, it seems unlikely that another human civilisation will ever get the economy vitality to create anything close to the modern world.
The Ice-age cometh
The one thing that could massively transform the availability of minerals is a new ice-age. That ice-age, would eat away at rocks, revealing large areas of untapped rock, which if they were lucky, might just provide the raw materials needed to trigger another industrial revolution.
Another pathway?
Is coal the only pathway to a modern civilisation? Coal was essential to the industrial revolution, but, could it have happened without coal? My gut feeling is no. The industrial revolution was the result of a sudden availability of cheap energy from coal, which in turn led to cheap iron, electricity, explosives, and without all these cheap items, the modern would would never have happened.
Wood could replace coal, but there have been wood-burning economies for thousands of years, and if wood would have led to modern society, it would have happened long ago. Wood never created the stimulus necessary to trigger the development of modern society.
The only proviso, is that not everything we now know need be forgotten. Perhaps a small group would continue making and using electricity in some remote part of Siberia, and then in a few thousand years, despite there only being wood, that technology would spread and slowly rekindle development towards something that has some resemblance to out modern world?
But, the same argument of slow growth … can also be used to suggest slow decline. That people start out cobbling together technologies we now have, but slowly as things wear out and cannot be replaced, things just regress and regress and even the iron, that was once easy to produce, becomes too hard and that technology is also forgotten.
There is no fundamental reason for technology progression … and it is quite possible that if the available resources have all been exploited, that we see technology regression.
Will it matter?
Has it happened before?
Is it possible that technology progressed before and then, for some reason (like a new ice-age), the progression was wiped away? It seems unlikely, but so too, is that the modern world would commit economic suicide through Nut Zero.
Maybe, the fate of humanity, is that in another million years, when almost all traces of this civilisation have been wiped clean, but sufficient new resources have been revealed by the retreating ice, that it all happens again.