May 2016 was El Nino Max, October 2017 should be another Minimum

Now that UAH have updated their global temperature graph we can see that the 13 month average has now started to drop:This suggests that May 2016 was the peak and that this peak was ~0.05C warmer than the 1998 peak. This suggests around 0.3C warming per a century.I think we can safely say that there is no evidence of a crisis – except for those who make a living by falsely asserting there is a crisis.
However, now we have a peak, because in 1998 it took around 17 months to reach a minimum, then if it now follows a similar trajectory, this suggests global temperatures will keep cooling until +/- a couple of months around October 2017
It’s also possible to compare the rate of cooling: and this month is now about 18% more cooling from the peak than occurred in 1998. However the noise is so large relative to the signal that this is best interpreted as “2016 is cooling at faster rate, but not a significantly different rate than 1998”.
Putting this all together, my best estimate is that the 13 month average mean will be back floating around the axis around October this year.