I see that the current US delegate count is
Trump 845
Cruz 559
Kasich (who) 148
So, Trump is getting 54% of delegates. There are 733 left to decide and Trump needs 1237 for a nomination. 733x.54 = 399 which suggests Trump will get 1244 and so will be the outright winner for the Republican nomination. As such it now looks like the election will be a straight run between Clinton and Trump. And on the face of it Clinton will win easily.
But personally I’d never have believed Trump would get this far, so he cannot be so easily dismissed as he’s drawing on untapped reserves of support which no other mainstream candidate has managed. Indeed, the hostility seen toward Trump by some Republicans may be very attractive to the internet voter who is fed up with the old party system. It certainly seems to be a close race according to the pundits:
All those states have higher concentrations of white voters, including larger percentages of older, white working-class voters, than many of the states in faster-growing areas that Obama looked to in his two campaigns.
“If he drives big turnout increases with white voters, especially with white male voters, that has the potential to change the map,” said a veteran of Obama’s campaigns, who spoke anonymously in order to share current analysis of the fall campaign.
Steve Schmidt, a Republican strategist and veteran of past presidential campaigns, said Trump’s overall general election strength is unpredictable at this point, in part because Trump could campaign as a different candidate from the one on display throughout the primaries. But he said that what Trump has shown to date is an ability to surprise his opponents and offer crosscutting messages to draw support.
“To be successful as a Republican candidate you have to be the equivalent of a neutron bomb,” Schmidt said. “He’s a neutron bomb. Donald Trump has been disruptive in the way Uber has been disruptive in the taxi industry.”
(https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/how-trump-vs-clinton-would-reshape-the-electoral-map/2016/03/19/783a834c-ed35-11e5-b0fd-073d5930a7b7_story.html)
What I can say, is that Trump has run one of the most effective presidential campaigns ever, coming from seemingly no where to enter the final heat. And now if there is anyone who is going to beat Clinton it is Trump. Just as the Republicans never quite knew what hit them with Trump, so the Democrat “ruling elite” will be thinking they have this election in the bag. That is until they too discover that you cannot win against Trump by playing the established rules of electioneering
