Peak Global Warming

A bit of personal forward planning
As far as public interest is concerned, global warming peaked in 2007 (google trends). As far as academic (aka “scientific”) credibility is concerned it peaked in 2009 with climategate, not so much for the clearly dubious behaviour of those involved revealed in the emails, but because their behaviour was not only condoned by a massive cover up at the highest level of “science” took place to keep the global warming scam going – and their continued politicking and denial of mother nature and her pause has only driven the stake home.
But from a data point of view – the peak is odd. Based on long term cycles it is likely  that global warming peak around 2010. That is to say, if we average over 30 years the maximum is likely to occur with an average from 1995- 2025. But, obviously, we don’t have that data yet, nor will we have it for some time – so that is still in the “hypothesis testing” stage. So we are stuck with the shorter records which appear to tell a very different story.
Because in the shorter yearly records the short-term el Nino spikes have a pronounced effect such that it is almost certain that the “peak” of global warming will occur in an El Nino year and so far the most likely contenders are 1998 and 2015/16. And based on current data 2016 is not matching up to the record of 1998 (wouldn’t it be ironic if the peak were 18 years ago – it’ll really make the assurances by the idiot academics look all the more ridiculous in the history books!).
So, now I trying to plan my year. I don’t want to have a lot of time available in the “muddle” of a El Nino when all we will get is moronic copy-n-paste commenters claiming the “pause is ended” just because its an El Nino year. Nor do I want to be tied up with other things at the very time the El Nino falls down the other side and we are wiping the smile off the face of the copy-n-paste alarmists.
So, I have a real personal interest in trying to work out or predict the end of this particular scam.
When will we know it is over?
Checking the data on the UAH graph, the earliest indicator would be around 1year of temperatures below “average” (pseudo 0C). Alternatively any single month below “=0.3” would be indicative of cooling and below “-0.4C” has only occurred before the “pause” … but hang on!!! … I’m thinking like a sceptic. Sure we’d need a whole year below 0C to start being convinced … but the poor alarmist are such sensitive souls!!! I’m sure even one month below 0C would have them quaking at the knees, throwing fits and throwing their rattles out of their pram.
Looking back at the graph, it appears that from the peak, it takes roughly a year for the global temperature to drop down.
Likely Future
Ok – here’s the likely scenario:  at some point we should get our 2015/16 “peak” and we’ll know that has occurred with moderate confidence when temps drop 0.2-0.3 below the peak. By my rough estimates that is a 3-4month lagging indicator – and from that point onward until around a year after the peak there is (usually) a strong decline in temperatures. If I assume peak temperatures occur around March, that suggests June/July will be the start of “making hay” with a peak-global-warming-eco-nutter-totally-pissed-off-with-mother-nature-not-doing-what-she-is-told toward the end of 2016 and throughout 2017.
From 2017 to 2020 we’ll then get back to “natural variation” but likely continuing the “19,20,21,22 years of pause” with an increasing likelihood of someone shouting but it’s actually cooling …
Around a decade later than everyone else (2025?) – the academics will start saying they have “discovered” a “60 year cycle” – which somehow explains both the pause … they’ll award the idiot who “discovered” that a Nobel to claim it as “theirs” (it won’t be cycle – like pause is to hiaitus –  it’ll be something more grandiose “modulation” – no that’s not long enough … it needs to sound “scientific” sound as if some 150 year old Latin teacher spat it out it needs to be very “anharmonious'”) … but I digress.
Whatever bullshit name they call it, it will be claimed that “when this is taken into account that we are seeing ‘unprecedented warming’.” Then around 2030 we’ll start to see warming again and the idiot academics will claim they have been vindicated and that this is finally “proof that private industry is ‘evil’ – because they are causing people to not get quite so cold in winter … or if they can afford the fuel … not getting anywhere near as cold as the eco-nutters (with high paid public sector jobs) would like them to get”.
Note: by 2030 – will the university sector still have anything like the same authority it once had? With foreign Universities effectively taking over (largely because our Universities are now so filled with PC idiocy that they will not be able to compete) it may no longer matter what US and particularly UK university staff think.
Contingency futures
Even with unusual warming, it is unlikely that we’d to get anything like the idiotic predictions of the eco-nutters in the IPCC (0.6C since 1996). Warming or cooling of around 0.5C in 30 years occurs 0-2 times a century. Warming like the 1690-1730 warming of 2C – has only occurred once in 3.5 centuries in CET. Thus, it is likely in the next century we will see warming or cooling of around 0.5C in 30 years and there is around a 30% chance of warming or cooling of up to 2C (over 40 years) in the next century.
Unusual cooling: it is quite possible we could see an “unusual” cooling event (i.e. it looks unusual in short-run data). For the sake of argument, lets assume this is 5 years of colder than I would expect. This will certainly cool the ardour of the global warming idiots. However based on previous behaviour, this will merely turn to “cooling is just another thing we expect from man-made global warming”. And just as the same people pushed the global cooling scare as pushed the global warming scare, so the same evil machine pushing global warming will be simply turned into a global cooling scam.
However, I suspect that although it will be very easy for academics to convince themselves they have “found” something, I can’t see the public falling yet again for another global-bullshit scam in the same way they did. However, the (once) mainstream press will no doubt use anything global-bullshit scam to go overboard in a vane attempt to boost their dwindling sales – but at least that might focus on real problems like winter deaths.
Unusual warming: just as unusual cooling is quite usual (yes the irony is intended), so unusual warming is also quite likely. Unfortunately, with the fraudulent believers inventing surface “temperature”, unless their is a sane republican in the US who has a general clear out of the eco-nutters it is almost certain they will just “get rid of the pause”, like they “got rid of the medieval warm period” and “got rid of the 1940s warm period” and “got rid of the 1970s global cooling scare”.
So, a long-term warming event would require a huge effort to prevent the “lunatics finally not only taking over the asylum – but knocking down the asylum with themselves and a lot of other people in it”.
It’s all down to the public’s common sense
The big question: at what point will the public have the sense to turf out the lunatics running the asylum? But I forget – most of the public are already treating global warming fanatics like deranged lunatics! The problem isn’t the public – who are rightfully sceptical of all academia tells us – it’s the deranged lunatic politicians who keep lapping up their insanity. And the problem (in the UK) is that there’s been effectively no choice (although will UKIP change that?)
So, here I must leave the subject because if there’s one thing I cannot predict – it is when deranged politicians will realise they’ve been conned.