Today I read in the Scotsman official comments (from Sturgeon). Now to say I cannot stand Sturgeon is an understatement, however this crisis is too important to let that interfere. I’ll go through the points

• 50-80% could be infected. That is not unreasonable as a maximum.
• Scotland may not follow a similar pattern – true, but it could be better, but it could be worse
• Vast majority (80%) mild symptoms. Agreed
• 20% more severe symptoms with 4% needing hospitalisation. I recognise the figures, but not the categorisation. However that may be my misunderstanding of what was meant by “20% required hospitalisation” in the Chinese data. Perhaps that was “quarantine” not treatment?
• “escalation plans” for the NHS are now being examined to see how extra capacity can be provided to cope with those who have the most severe symptoms. – EXCELLENT NEWS!!! I could say “a bit late”, but don’t look a gift horse in the mouth.
• “Contact tracing is under way” … agree with that approach, but I was fearful this was thought to be able to stop the virus. It appears it is now accepted it can only delay.
• Scotland v France Six Nations game is still scheduled to take place in Edinburgh & COP – personally I’d cancel both (the first to prevent Coronavirus – the second as a waste of time).
• Cobra “signed off of a four-nation action plan” … good to see apparent co-operation.

Comment

Whilst there are finally plans to increase the capacity of the NHS to match the possble need from acute beds for coronavirus, what we still haven’t seen is any details. Nor have we got details of the plans necessary to implement quarantine measures. And, remember it is far easier to organise details like this BEFORE quarantine, than to try to address the multitude of potential issues AFTER quarantine has to be imposed.

Trial quarantine

I would like to see an area of the UK being put under “trial quarantine” for a short period of perhaps a few days – pick a small town and just shut it down for 2-3 days. This would allow planners to start to think about some of the issues that need to be addressed, and it would give film footage that would allow the public to have a concept of what it entails.

Indeed, it may not be necessary to have an actual quarantine. But instead if a town were all (including children) asked “what issues do you foresee with a 100% quarantine for the next 14 days”, then this might by sufficient. But an actual quarantine, even of the family-residence in a military base would be hugely valuable and avoid some costly mistakes when it is needed for real.

Coronavirus: Scotland to expect ‘significant’ outbreak with up to 80 per cent of population infected

“We’re expecting perhaps 50 per cent or as much as 80 per cent of the population would be infected during that epidemic,” she told journalists at the Scottish Government’s St Andrews House headquarters in Edinburgh.

This is based on the epidemiological pattern of the outbreak in China, but it’s not clear whether Scotland would follow a similar pattern.

Dr Calderwood added that the vast majority of cases will be very “mild symptoms”, similar to a cold, and they will fully recover in a week to 10 days. However, 20% of people affected will suffer more severe symptoms, while 4% are looking at hospital treatment.

Ms Sturgeon insisted that the figures cover the worse case scenario and it was important to provide “full and frank” information.

“The public want to know that we are preparing for what we think is the reasonable worse case scenario,” she said.

“Much of what we do will be aimed at reducing that impact.”

The First Minister said “escalation plans” for the NHS are now being examined to see how extra capacity can be provided to cope with those who have the most severe symptoms.

The patient who was diagnosed with the Covid-19 virus in Tayside is “not seriously ill at this stage”, Ms Sturgeon revealed.

The Tayside resident, who had recently travelled from the north of Italy, has been taken to hospital as a precautionary measure and is currently receiving treatment in isolation.

“That is not necessarily going to be the case going forward for future cases”, Ms Sturgeon said, explaining people will be told to self-isolate “unless there is a clinical need for them to be in hospital”.

“Contact tracing is under way”, she added.

Her briefing came after the First Minister took part in the UK Government’s Cobra meeting.

The First Minister said “we are in the containment phase” but the situation is under “ongoing review”.

She added the Scotland v France Six Nations game is still scheduled to take place in Edinburgh this weekend and there has been no change to plans for the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow later in the year.

Cobra “signed off of a four-nation action plan” to guide the countries’ response to the virus and will be published on Tuesday, Ms Sturgeon announced.

Asked about whether big events such as the climate summit were at risk of being called off, Ms Sturgeon said: “We are not at that stage yet – decisions will be guided very firmly by the scientific advice that all four Governments are receiving.”

She added: “The public should be reassured that there are well-established procedures and protocols in place.”

Earlier, Dr Calderwood told the BBC’s Good Morning Scotland programme the first person to test positive in Scotland is “clinically well”, adding they were “transferred to hospital last night as a precautionary measure only”.

She added: “The public can really help us and we’re going to keep saying these messages – wash your hands, don’t touch your face, sneeze or cough into a tissue and bin it immediately, and that can still help to contain this so we reduce the number of people it’s transmitted to.

“We would expect at least 80% of people to have very mild illness that they will recover quickly from and a very small number of people that need hospitalisation.”

She added: “At the moment, this is just precautionary so there’s no issue at all with our NHS services or capacity.”If this does spread throughout Scotland, it will become business as usual. It will become as we have with people with the flu that yes, some people are very ill, some people are less ill, we accept that and people get on with their normal business.”