UPDATE
Well I made a cock up there … apparently Reform are to be the NEXT government (serves me right for listening to my gut after a curry)
OLD
I was a little shocked today to find I had started to talk about a Reform government using English tenses that indicated it was going to happen. After a little thought, I realised that it wasn’t such an insane idea.
Usually, I would try to predict the election result using some form of estimation procedure working out current voter share, trends etc.
This time, voting intentions are moving so quickly that I cannot do that and produce anything meaningful forecast. Instead, I’m left with a gut feeling that Reform will win.
To what extent that gut feeling is valid, only time will tell, but I do have that gut feeling, and in the present election I don’t have any other means to attempt to forecast the result.
So, I am now predicting a Reform victory. That suggests the Tories will be virtually wiped out. Probably with less than 1o seats. Annoyingly Lib Dems may also do well. But no one likes Starmer. He was the smarmy git who took the electorate for a ride and assumed his victory was a sure thing … without the need to ever justify anyone voting for the smarmy loathsome creature. That strategy seems to have misfired.
