I read today a press release that suggests NATO may issue an invitation to Ukraine to join NATO. In other words, it will go against its own article that any country that joins NATO must be at peace.
My prediction, if this happens, is that Russia will simply ignore the move by NATO. (It will see as just another empty threat after a series of empty threats) Instead, it will continue prosecuting the war in Ukraine. Based on the stupidity of all bureaucracies, who once set on a policy, cannot then turn back from the brink, I then predict having set themselves on a course of stopping Russia by threatening to make the Ukraine conflict a NATO conflict, that when Russia ignores them, that NATO will then speed up the process of Ukraine joining. As Russia will keep ignoring them, it could mean that within days, Ukraine will join NATO. Given the boneheads in our own “government”, that will then mean the UK, will be at war with Russia.
Whereupon, having already sent much of NATO’s equipment to Ukraine to be destroyed, the bunch of bonehead politicians who are intent on regime change in Russia, facing the world’s best army and with no way to climb down and nothing left to threaten Russia with except nuclear war, NATO will issue just such a threat.
And I’m sure Russia has foreseen that and is ready with its own response.
That means we could very rapidly go from an “invitation” to Ukraine, to full blown nuclear war with Russia deciding it is in its strategic interest to strike first.
My advice is that, if Nato issues such an invitation to Ukraine, that it would be reasonable to urgently finalise & make concrete your preparations for nuclear war.
What do preparations for nuclear war look like?
Good question!
There is a lot that can be done to massively improve your chances of survival. I will be very happy to discuss them with anyone for a fee.
Aside from who is antagonising who and for what purpose and who is destroying more of whose equipment. Like virtually every country in Europe and the Middle East the borders and countries of the former Russian Empire are not that old or where sensible people would put them. The Russian Empire incorporated most of the “stans” in the 19th century, some areas as late as the 1890s.
https://www.britannica.com/place/Russian-Empire
So like the United Kingdom there will be a number of former independant countries with nationalists of varying degress.
It’s always been the case that rival nations will encourage dissenting minorities and majorities in these former nations. Russia doen’t need to do this in Europe as there are socialists and wokes who are much easier to influence.
My position is that Russia, led by Putin, is trying to prevent the breakup of their empire, the West is doing what rivals always do and encouraging dissent. Although anyone who studies history knows this encouragement can be fleeting at best, and rarely gets to the Ukraine level.
So will nuclear war happen, I don’t know. Is it likely- that depends. If The West, Europe and the USA, is on the road to renewable ruination. If total breakdown of energy supplies happens while the Ukraine situation is still in stalemate then the Russian Empire will reach the North Sea and Mediterranean. On the other hand if Putin pops his clogs then Russsia will be busy with a civil war of generals.
What to do if nuclear war happens? Well again I don’t know, any preparations seem futile to me, I’m quite pessimistic on that front. The number of Bear Grylls would be a few hundred they might be able to survive for 20 years to act as The Lantern Bearers. There are bound to be others who survive, what they will do is try to survive by whatever means they can.
Looking at Russian tactics & strategy so far, they have totally outsmarted the US and UK. They also act within rules, which means they are avoiding civilian casualties, not as some PR exercise, but because they think it is the right way to fight war. But they are also pretty ruthless. No half measures. So if they believe that the military conditions require a first strike, I believe they will do it. But that strike will be to targets of military importance.
In contrast, the EU, US and UK, … let’s just say they are behaving in a way that is very likely to push Russia to nuclear war. The key thing here, is that there is a high probablity that any such war will be very targetted at military targets, meaning the vast majority of people will survive.
The key requirements to improve your chances are:
1. If you can: get out the conflict zone
2. Avoiding at all costs, the severe burns from the flash
3. Getting out the way of the oncoming radiation cloud.
4. If you cannot get out the way and are in the fallout zone getting into an underground radiation shelter before the fallout arrives
5. Getting out of the radiation zone, at the optimum time to minimise exposure
6. Living without any government, healthcare or “normal economy” for a period I’d estimate as many months
They also act within rules, which means they are avoiding civilian casualties, not as some PR exercise, but because they think it is the right way to fight war.
Seriously?
Yes seriously. One of the reasons that I started monitoring Russian channels, was so I could try to repress any “against the rules” behaviour. It was frankly a waste of time. During months of reading posts on what was going on, my entire “rebuke” was something like “that prisoner was treated too roughly”. Whereas there were videos that unquestionably showed some Ukrainians murdering Russian prisoners. Likewise, I came across no instances where a target did not have a military value. Likewise, Putin is very much constrained in what he can do, by what the legal framework is in Russia. Basically they are obsessed with doing things by the rules, far more than any other nationality I’ve seen.
But that also means they can be pretty callous. If the rules (Russian rules) permit the firing of nuclear weapons, they will have no qualms about doing so.If the rules don’t permit the firing, then they won’t. Unfortunately, they won’t let us know what the rules are. But, my bet is that they have already agreed that in such a such a situation, they will launch a pre-emptive nuclear attack.
I find it interesting that unlike any war in history, and if you consider Ukraine as part of Russia any civil war that you don’t think that both sides will target civilians, or that both sides heavily filter what gets to the rest of the world even in these days of the internet
By Russian Channels do you mean official government, communist party and state media? Or do you look at opposition and “underground” information as well?
If nothing else there are always tit for tat actions. Even the best trained soldiers are not immune to taking revenge.
So it is easy for one side to provoke the other to step up the level of tit for tat actions to a point where it’s no longer a drone attack on the Kremlim or taking out a Kyiv tower block where a couple of Ukrainian soldiers live amongst 500 others.
The channels are supporters of Russia. I presume they are a mixed bunch including people of a military background, including the US and UK. What was very obvious, is that Russians get upset when accussed of targetting civilians, and they get upset when civilians are being targetted. That is very hard to fake. Originally I sought our pro-Ukrainian channels to keep a fair balance. But I found the hatred and nastiness on pro-Ukrainians channels & from pro-Ukrainian posters too much. They just weren’t nice people.
I don’t see “tit for tat”. Instead, Russia has set itself strategic goals, which it working steadily & at times quite ruthlessly to achieve. It uses the minimum force necessary to get the job done. To give an example, the Russians used missiles which would blow a hole in a road .. but when one missed, by a few meters (two car lengths), the bridge it was targetting was undamaged. A day later, I saw another video, this time of HUGE really HUGE explosions, and not one, but about half a dozen. WHen I saw it, I was shocked by the way they had scaled up with indiscriminate bombing. Then I read the caption: “US bombing Iraq”. That was the “Shock and awe” tactics of the US … basically a terror campaign of indiscriminate bombing with no concern for “collateral damage” as they called those they terrorised. I had just assumed that was what weapons had to be like, until I saw the pin point accuracy and minimalist explosions employed by the Russians.
To be absolutely fair, the US are a bunch of military cowboys, compared to the professionalism of the Russians. And they are strategic masters. They are far better by far on strategy than anything in the west. We might have all the high tech gimicks, but they are just gimicks when the Russians can run rings around us strategically. I do not know how to win a war against them. They are chess players, compared to US checker players. They are also uttterly determined to win … they will not give up … unlike the US which falls apart as soon as the political wind changes.
Let me give an example. One of the most difficult things from a military point of view, is to evacuate an army over a “bottleneck” like a bridge crossing. So, e.g., at Dunkirk the UK only managed to get back its personnel, by leaving huge amounts of equipment and a sizeable rear guard, which then had to surrender. So, seeing that Russia was going to cross the Dnieper, I assumed that they would have the same problems. They would be forced to leave behind men and equipment, in order to protect the rest over the perilous crossing.
But not at all! By a series of carefully controlled blockages, and well fought rear guard, they managed to get their ENTIRE FORCE over a single bridge, leaving not much more than a few broken down tanks and a useless helicopter. What’s more, they also evacuated a lot of civilians. The person who organised that retreat was a military genius. The fact that the Ukrainians couldn’t cut off even a few Russians, shows they are incompetent fools. The fact that they had the whole of US and UK “intelligence” feeding them hourly information on the Russian troop movements and they STILL couldn’t cut off any Russians, shows just how professional the Russians are, and how useless the US, Uk and Ukrainians.
And, I’ve not mentioned the utterly callous way that Ukrainians are being sent to their slaughter by the thousands by Zelensky, for the pointless goal of grabbing a bit of useless land just for the “PR”, which means Russia is destroying both men and equipment. It is a TOTAL waste of lives, for no strategic benefit, and it is only a matter of time before Zelensky has no men or equipment left. More problematic … he is sucking Europe dry. Europe is becoming extremely depleted of military hardware … if Russia attacks (and the EU must believe it would), then there is almost nothing to stop it. I’ve never seen such a bunch of cretins …
I do not ever want to go to war with Russia, I particularly do not want to go to war with Russia, with the idiots from the US/UK who are organising the Ukrainian “army” on my side.