The government have had weeks to prepare for this pandemic hitting the UK. As I have shown, the scale of the crisis was known at least 3 weeks ago by anyone with any intelligence looking at the stats (Coronavirus: estimated Scottish impact). The only things I got wrong is that I thought our politicians would actually do something instead of sit on their fat arses and talk about “the Union” (the never ending boring topic in Scotland).
But, now, it has got far worse. Because there is clear evidence that the majority of people with the virus will be unaware they have it (Coronavirus Alert – it’s Imminent). That makes containment by focussing only on those with symptoms largely ineffective. And vry unfortunately, containing the virus by focussing on those with symptoms appears to have been the only “plan” the government had.
Failed at the first hurdle
Even three weeks ago from what was coming out of China, it was obvoius that we needed to quarantine people, so it was also obvious that people needed to have support by e.g. getting payments to allow them to take time off work. Instead, far from a detailed plan and numbers to call, when we finally get the gov saying “you must quarantine”, for all the thought they had put into it, they might as well have said: “if you would be so kind just stick your head in a bucket of sand for a fortnight”.
It was also obvious as the pandemic approached that things like 111 would become extremely heavily used. Instead, what we find is nothing about beefed up services and instead I’m regularly seeing things like this:
Morning everyone, soooo tired once again. I thought for my own piece of mind I would call 111 in the UK just to make sure my intense viral infection is not the #coronavirus, probably isn’t, Could not talk to anyone as they only talk if you have been to affected areas. Nevermind! pic.twitter.com/buslt9QHWL
— Kelly Martin Speaks (@KellyMartin_UK) February 27, 2020
Those are the simple things at the start. If those simple things at the start clearly lack any preparation or detailed planning, it’s clear the UK gov plan was to put their head in the sand and hope. If it’s this bad already, imagine what happens when the planning isn’t to stop panic, but to save lives! But at least I was hoping the medical staff had a plan to massively beef up acute beds!
So I can’t describe how angry I was to read this this morning:
All hospitals have been asked to set up isolation pods in case patients with the virus come in, although the official advice is to phone NHS 111 and self-isolate.
Currently there is no treatment or cure, so hospitals are trying to relieve the symptoms. Specialist equipment called ECMO is available at a small number of units to support the most severely ill patients if their lungs fail.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-51632801
Let’s put that in context. These “self-isolation pods” in one hospital appears to be a tent described as “straight out of Ray Mears”. The advice is to phone 111 (now swamped). To self-isolate (but people will not be able to afford to take time off work). As for the 100,000 acute beds we may need the message is not of preparation but treating us like idiots as there will be “a small number of units to support the most severely ill patients”. That might be enough if the only people getting acute care are the politicians!
Quarantine
As for quarantine – we’ve had weeks to plan it, but … I’m not hopeful. In China they needed to use “deadly force” and other draconian measures like welding the main door shut on blocks of flats. In contrast, this is the response we get from our police when a few brain dead twits decide to break the law…
if our police are scared witless to act against a few upper class toffs wielding handbags, they couldn’t stop a crowd of determined (& infected) people like those real people who did what the police would not and took down ER at Canning town. If those people are intent on leaving a plague town our police will be running screaking and scared into their bunkers. (especially without suitable PPE)
But even if it could be enforced, we can’t make the quarantine work! Is there the slightest evidence delivery drivers for supermarkets are being trained how to maintain food supplies during a quarantine? (i.e. training on using protective clothing). And has there been any kind of recruitment drive to secure the additional plumbers, builders & medical staff? who will be needed in quarantine areas because even the simplest job like fixing a boiler is going to take a lot longer in protective gear. And if people are left without heating – they will break the quarantine and get out. All the basic services have to keep working to make a quarantine effective.
I don’t believe a single second has been spent thinking about how to achieve this let alone the huge undertaking to make it work.
Yesterday I saw that we’ve not even got masks to doctors surgeries. We need every delivery driver, and probably an assistant, to have full blown protective gear to ensure food continues to be deliered. And it doesn’t matter if not everywhere is quarantined, because we can’t afford to start handing out PPE after we need it.
Based on my experience of the totally brain dead response of our “political elite” (elite LOL!). I think it is too late to make quarantine have anything other than a marginal drop in the rate of escalation of this virus. A such we are almost certainly heading for large scale overload of the NHS and up to 500,000 dead or higher given that there may be no meaningful medical care for the ~2million needing hospitalisation.
