Goodbye global warming – hello Global Cooling?

This month, we’ve finally seen the large-scale predicted cooling after the El Nino (in the only remaining credible temperature from UAH – all others now being UPjusted).
I’ve been saying that temperatures could well drop before Trump becomes president – although to be absolutely honest – I thought he became president immediately when elected. So, I was predicting this perhaps Aug/Sept.
However, one snowflake doesn’t make global cooling – so I’d want to see 3-4 months at the present level or 2-3months falling further to confirm temperatures are firmly down.
Indeed, we probably need to wait for 6 months so we can see a 12/13 month average and compare 2016 with 1998. That will be the really interesting result.
We should have seen a minimum of 0.14C/decade warming. There’s been 18 years between the El ninos, so it should be 0.25C warmer. I’ve previously said that <0.05C/decade is still “pause”. So if the highest 12/13 month average of 2016 is not 0.1C warmer than 1998, then not only are we clearly still in a pause but I’d also say the theory is well and truly busted. (or is it?)

Is it busted?

In 2001, the IPCC predicting a minimum of  0.14C/decade. The absence of this warming tells us that for the predicted warming to be true natural variation is at least 0.14C/decade. So, the question then becomes: how likely is it that natural variation explains the lack of predicted cooling (bearing in mind the warming should have been much much higher).
One decade without the predicted warming would happen ~50% of the time – that is the supposed warming is wiped out by a random addition that happens to be cooling. Two decades with the right adverse natural cooling to counter supposed warming would happen perhaps ~25% of the time. Three decades perhaps ~12.5% – which is close enough to the 10:1 level that I would definitely call it busted.
So, if we get no net warming for another decade it will be busted as a theory.
But we can bust it earlier. Because if temperatures now cooled an equivalent amount to a decade of cooling (-0.14C) – so that even with the minimum supposed warming it would still be cooler than now, and this happened for a reasonable period, then I think we can likewise say it’s busted.
For the last 18 years temperature has been hovering around 0.3C on the UAH graph. If we assume 0.15C to account for La nina, then basically if 2017 comes out substantially below 0C, then … it’s gone! It’s busted. Allowing time to get out of La Nina – if yearly average doesn’t get up above 0.15C by 2020 – likewise it’s busted.
That really means that if we see temperatures settling below what they are now at anytime beyond 2019 … it’s busted.

Implications – of longer El Nino

I can’t deny it, the El Nino lasted longer than expected. This is either because it had the same basic profile, but temperatures were higher than expected (abd the top was chopped off by other natural variation)- or because it was genuinely longer.
There are many possible implications:

1. That temperatures were higher in the El Nino – and that higher temperature will remain, so the La Nina will be less intense than expected.
2. That the intensity of the El Nino, La Nina cycle is stronger than normal – so we’ll now see an intense dip and a stronger La Nina than normal
3. That for some reason the cycle is longer – so a longer La Nina
4. For some reason the transition from El Nino to La Nina has been delayed – so the La Nina will be shorter than expected.

What will be most interesting is if the La Nina is longer and deeper than usual, as this will mean that the effect will be far more pronounced and it will be far easier to see what is part of the cycle and what (in previous cycles) was just coincidental noise.
However, all we can say about weather is that it is often colder in January and often reported as being wetter.

hello Global Cooling

If there is around a 60year long cycle in climate, then 2010 would have been the peak. So, for the last 7 years we’ve been riding the crest of warming. If so, we might see a pronounced cooling in the data in the next decade (although none of us will feel such a small change ourselves).
Indeed – we may see cooling as we go into La Nina – possibly quite a big cooling – followed by even more cooling as the effects of cooling phase of the 60year cycle bite. If so, given this unusual change in climate, we could by the time Trump leaves office start hearing the phrase “global cooling” coming from official (previously warmist) sources.