Could global warming be delaying the "Big one" earthquake (re WUWT)

Thanks Josh cartoonsbyjosh.com

Thanks Josh cartoonsbyjosh.com


I was reading on WUWT the “Claim: Huge Earthquake overdue Pacific North West“, when I realised this could be affected by global warming through the caterpillar theory.
In short, increasing temperatures could be delaying “the big one”.
The caterpillar theory isn’t so much a theory as a statement of the obvious: “as the crust warms or cools over extended periods, it will expand and contract leading to plate movement”.
As I explained in my post “The Caterpillar Theory and it’s use in predicting earthquake“, this suggests that earthquakes should be affected by global warming and cooling. However, in that post I only considered earthquakes in subduction zones (areas where one crustal plate is is being pushed down under another plate). Here, we need expansion directly along the direction of movement and so the scale of the effect has to be quite massive amounting to at least a few 10s of centimetres if not 10s of meters.
Unfortunately, as the graph below shows, the amount of crust affected by warming is relatively small even over the complete 100,000 year ice-age cycle.
Ice-age temperature change1
 
 
However, whilst the amount of warming is small, even a very small change in size of the crust over the 40,000km circumference of the globe will add up. (Over an ice-age cycle, the surface few kms will attempt to expand by a few kms!!)
Due to the square law, over a century the scale of change would be the square root of 1/1000 or around 1/30 the penetration. So instead of around 3km of crust heating, it would be about 100m. Over a decade, the effect would be 1/100 of the distance or around 30m. So, it is very unlikely that short term warming over even 100 years would directly expand the crust to cause enough outward movement to directly cause an earthquake.

However …

SanandreasWhat I had not considered is slip faults like the San Andreas fault. Here, the fault is not caused by two faults moving together (or apart), but instead it is caused by the relative sidewards motion of two plates.
As my son was saying last night. The friction between the two plates is proportional to the force between them. Now, even a very small increase in temperature of the crust could cause enough outward movement and an increase in the force.
Now, what is most important, is not the scale of physical expansion, but the forces being generated. However, … because the crust acts rather like a spring, the force is still proportional to the increase in temperature.
The question, therefore is whether the scale of warming we saw over the 20th century could be enough to expand sufficient rock to increase the friction between the plates and delay any earthquake?
And the answer is that whilst it is a theoretical possibility, it depends on a lot of specific factors regarding the plasticity of rocks and how earthquakes occur which I don’t know enough about.

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One Response to Could global warming be delaying the "Big one" earthquake (re WUWT)

  1. Sorry to be off topic again … On RT Sputnic, the pope’s man sells climate change and champions the fight against the ‘mammon’ deniers – using simple, forceful and misguided rhetoric to appeal to the emotions. Starts at 14 minutes.
    http://www.rt.com/shows/sputnik/310732-evo-morales-chile-argentina/

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